Gregmal

As someone who advises, although I dont know if Id call myself an advisor(I employ more of a "this is how I do things and you are either onboard or you're not; If you arent happy please take your money back" approach), advisors IMO are best suited for sophisticated investors who need help executing strategies and/or getting involved in exotic products they may need help understanding. It is downright dangerous exposing a normal, run of the mill person with little understanding of how the financial markets work, to an "advisor" who knows the lingo.

GIXws

Yea NYC suburbs it isn't uncommon to see multi tenant office at 20-30% vacancies even pre COVID. It will be interesting to see what the incremental changes turn out to be, as the data becomes available. I've long been more negative on future of office than future of retail for this reason. I've personally visited dozens of the non big city office complexes and campuses, and frankly, always came to the same conclusion. If all you have to offer your workers is a cubicle or at best, a window with a view of I-80...why would they want to come to the office. Well, when governors and mayors are effectively shutting everything there is to do in the big cities, that same narrative is what you are left with. Hopefully this insanity corrects itself. You look at a place like NYC, and its sad, but also deserved given that they voted these politicians into office, but you tax everyone to death and drive out your wealthy....you shut down small businesses...you put severe restrictions on what businesses can operate and those that can are at fractional capacity....well, after a while there just won't be anything or anyone left willing to keep the scheme going. As the big dollar tax contributors flee..who is left to pay? The firms you won't let operate? The ones still around who you put on poor financial footing because of politically driven policy decisions?

ARK has done an incredible job of at least identifying some real stud stock picks. Also agree on AirBNB. I regret not having pulled the trigger on a PP several years ago when some employee shares were up for grabs. Hopefully it goes public soon, while there is still a dark could over the sector and hopefully the public valuation.

Absolutely. I think even inadvertently I realized the need for this when Casey posted on "the next FANGs". It can have different meanings or angles to look at depending on how you look at them. IE next already establishment large cap turning into mega T-cap. Simple a moat and long runway. A revolutionary or disruptive technology. In its simplest form I'd suppose the FANG premise is merely a gargantuan wealthy creating machine. This can be influenced by many different things, events, or circumstances, some perhaps we've seen before, others maybe we have yet to see.

That's pretty much nonsense. But it does make for a nice story when the stock end up going up. See I knew a guy who felt the exact same way about Nortel. He didn't make an outrageous amount for his family. I guess there are winners and losers, right rb? or is it nonsense to think you can be a winner.... There is also just simply being an "investor", allocating money you dont need, in an inconspicuous manner, and just letting it be. You can only lose what you put in, whereas you can often make many multiples of it. So all you'd have to do is a hit a double to make up for the occasional Nortel. Or, sometimes what Ill do, is after enough of an increase, you pull your original investment and then just let the rest ride.

Would be cool but certainly suck for the fans of those teams. Finally win one and cant see it nor likely have the big parade/celebration. Then again if 2011 was any indication, Vancouver will likely be joining their US friends with more "peaceful protesting".

Definitely some good observations. This reasoning is largely why I kind of disagree with the ARK fella on Square and Roku which are basically just modifications/copy cats of existing "rule breakers" so to speak. Invitae definitely could be this type of company, but they haven't come close to demonstrating how they ever make money and their CEO is a little bit of a liar IMO. Being able to expand into pretty much any sector is a big reason many of the tech companies have the crazy forward looking valuations. It took me a while with CRM to realize that it wasn't just a software/tech company but if executed properly, basically a royalty/toll collector on everyone mid size and up business out there. I think the key is to find a business the has huge optionality, vibrant leadership, and a bit of a first mover advantage. Maybe this falls more into the Motley Fool "rule breaker" than "next FANG" category...I think every one of the 5 "next FANGs" according to ARK is actually a rule breaker as well...but the other key to finding these I suppose is never selling stocks because even something like Netflix or MSFT...5 years ago or so looked very different than it does today from a "global domination" perspective. Same with Apple. Everybody I know has owned and made money on AAPL over the years. And almost all of them lament selling it "too soon".

Agree on Spotify. Shopify too. Thinking mainly in terms of long runway. Multiple new avenues of application for their "product" and/or modifying their product to suite new revenue streams. Controversial valuation. IE Amazon the bookstore to Amazon the everything store. Netflix the DVD rental biz to Netflix the one stop shop for tv. Saleforce perhaps too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/01/portfolio-manager-flags-next-fang-stocks-amid-record-inflows.html ARK has been dynamite, and without getting into them specifically, as they seem to be controversial for a few reasons, I thought the topic was worth discussing, you know, being forward looking and all. What are some candidates/businesses that have the "next FANG" potential. Ive long owned and agree with CRSP. Traded NVTA quite a bit but have questions about it s longer term economic advantages in a low margin biz. SQ seems like a PYPL wannabe as does ROKU with NFLX. Other candidates I think could be private companies like Ripple, Synthego or SpaceX. Public wise, Ive seen tons of talk about Inseego. Tradedesk also comes up quite a bit. A way, way, way down the line candidate may be something like Atomera. GAN also has some interesting things going for it, as has been detailed in that thread. Thought this would be a fun topic and fits with the higher risk/super high reward type of investing that may suite the current environment. Picking up nickels and dimes right now just doesnt seem worthwhile. Disclosure, since mentioning several small and less liquid names, for the sake of transparency....I own CRSP, PYPL, ATOM and ARKG. I have private investments in Synthego and Ripple(the company not the coin).

Ive always found selling ITM calls, preferably longer dated can act as a reasonable way to hedge. Ive never had issues with them being exercised mainly because the folks who buy ITM calls, like me, are simply looking for cheap leverage and dont want to outright own the underlying. On a decline you just buy it back or let it expire while keeping your long term basis in the underlying.

Whats unfortunate is that many of these business owners have indeed been good sports about this whole thing. They haven't been overly aggressive or demanding and have up until this point, largely taken the high road. But you're now looking at these scumbag politicians having taken away their livelihood for nearly half a year! With no end in sight! You look at NYC, and despite the constant boasting about "beating the virus", the numbers dont lie. Why was NY/NJ easily the worst in terms of virus casualties during their peaks, and now despite being "on the other side", literally for months now, such an outlier in terms of any kind of rebound in economic activity? NYC has THE WORST economic outlook in the country. They've gotten the worst of both worlds, and there isn't really any other explanation than the actions of De Blasio and Cuomo. Are NYers somehow less resilient than other parts of the country...I doubt it. Both residents, and folks traveling in, such as KJP mentioned, currently have no reason to be there.

Spoke with a good friend this morning; guy is part owner of a group that owns a number of very prominent NYC restaurants. Good news is that they are preparing a lawsuit demanding the ability to reopen. Its downright disgraceful what De Blasio and Cuomo are doing. After mismanaging everything in March/April...they now continue to suffocate their business operators despite the fact that there are nearly no new cases, and even more horrendously, seem to be indicating to restaurant owners that they will not even consider indoor dining until a vaccine is here. Why isn't there a desire for folks to go back to the office? Part of my theory is that the ambience of NYC is what draws people in. Not a farfetched theory. So why exactly would one want to live/work in NYC if the only things currently available are drugs, violence, and homeless people??? The politicians really need to be replaced. Hopefully the lawsuit is successful and/or the politicians relent. They have straight up commandeered the livelihoods of so many NYers. Another good side question. How can cities and states demand payments of property taxes from businesses they are refusing to let operate? Specifically, taxes that are largely based on corporate/commercial tax rates and not residential or "no use" rates? If nothing else, they should suspend property taxes for any business they are refusing to let open at full capacity.

Got some Firestone Nitro Merlin Stout. Also tried Dragon's Milk White. Both good, but aint no Natty Light.

Watched the Showtime documentary Tyson. Outside of Mike narrating the thing, which was annoying as hell, it was pretty interesting, especially the psychological aspect inspiring much of his rise and fall.

I know you're not talking about Tesla!

Second Hand or Left Hand Milk stout? I've heard of the latter. The former makes me think about Cousin Eddie's beer in Vacation. "You look like like you could use a cold one!" Eddy says, handing his half-drunk beer to Clark as he cracks open a fresh one for himself. Ha,You are correct Left Hand. I wouldn't want to drink second-hand beer, they all look and taste like Bud Light at that point. In that case, yea Ive had it too, and its stellar.

Yup, my wife mentioned the same thing. Nobody respects boundaries with WFM. Emails and messages come in at all hours of the day and night. Its a disaster, especially with kids.

Looks like he made a bad trade. Hopefully he will be alright. All better! This guy is certainly entertaining.

Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. What happens when NJ/NY are removed from the fatality rate? They are definitely in a league of their own. Well, if we remove the Lombardy from Italy’s fatality rate, Italy looks great too. You can check out worldodometer for the US state level fatality rates. Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida and others all have fatality rates higher than Italy, so it’s not just NY either. FWIW, the highest fatality rate is with your state NJ, not NY. Of course if you add/remove areas it changes the picture. That was my point. You had folks saying "next Italy" so if we want to get technical, well, that was poorly worded if they really meant Lombardi, no? It is my belief NY/NJ numbers are skewed because testing was poorly done at the onset, but regardless, you had the usual suspects, those that now have amnesia, talking about "the next Italy"(when, as you mentioned, presumably they meant Lombardi) stating there would be more states resembling that, and others would be worse than NY/NJ, and quite frankly, they couldn't have been more wrong about that. We've been at "just wait 2 weeks" for several months now. Hospitals never got where everyone "knew" they were heading regarding capacity, thank god. And yea, Murphy in NJ is a total assclown. Same with Cuomo, boasting about how they're on the other side of the mountain and how theyre beating the virus when in reality they just got run over by a stampede(as the numbers do show), and now theyre claiming victory while still hiding as much is still restricted and/or shut down.

Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. What happens when NJ/NY are removed from the fatality rate? They are definitely in a league of their own.

Investing is boring. Just sit and watch everything go UP. Dude, thats it! Thats why, deep down some of us are drawn to the office REITs! Similar to the old adage, something about the occasional 2 being necessary in order to appreciate the 10s. I will leave out the rest of the analogy for the sake of the children. But now it makes sense. The office REIts are just there to make us appreciate everything else!

Yea but what if you hate Trump and just need an outlet?

Muh-knee....Its almost always, all about the Benjamins. The best companies just do a great job manipulating their imagine.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-keys-spot-one-best-130000496.html Dives moderately into the numbers on rental income