Gregmal

There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. If you are investing with a thesis that we will reach herd immunity(which is what the guy laid out as his thesis), then you are free to wait til that date to start investing. I'd prefer to front run the trend. Which is what muscleman did. He was ambitious in predicting an exact date, so if one wants to nitpick, there is that. Same as if you are anticipating blowout earnings....invest ahead of it, or after? I mean get real dude. But otherwise, its just bizarre seeing him criticized by those who took the other side of the trade, or in most likely a case, didnt have the conviction to do anything.

Yes its common sense but for a long time, and still continuing, there seems to be this belief by some, that cases popping up signal the end of humanity. University of Alabama just saw 1200 cases from young college kids partying. Life will go on I am sure. All of this hinges upon a great deal of Trump hatred acting as fuel and a love of "look at me, im sooo smart!", but the truth is that things are gradually getting back to normal and should continue to do so, despite outbreaks popping up here and there. Well, back to normal except for NY...even NJ today just set in motion indoor dining. But its important not to associate "MOAR CASES" with the end of civilization or economic ruin in perpetuity. Nor would it be wise to miss the forest for the trees with an obsession over the exact definition of "herd immunity", when the general gist, is that Florida, for instance, saw cases decline nearly 80% from 10K-ish to now 2k-ish in a couple months, with the economy more or less open. That is likely a sign the worst is behind them. You can make the same applications to other areas. And also really shouldn't be shocked about universities opening and having outbreaks, given the variety of factors converging, with people from all over the country settling into one location and likely doing a bit of socializing....the kids will be fine.

Sold half of FIZZ position.

Ive been looking a little bit into this, and the general bull case as well. Not much to add other than maybe to add lumber to the list. Agree on copper. There's probably a few scenarios where you can do well even without major inflation...homebuilding will likely continue to see major tailwinds.

It's OK Dalal. You're a habitual liar so nothing you say matters...except, on an investment forum...."I hope you are invested in the market!"

LOL. Muscleman was "directionally" right! We have "herd immunity" by the end of August in the USA just like he said...wait not the USA but only in select states NY, GA, FL, ...wait, cases are up in Buffalo? I mean herd immunity in NYC, not NY state! Dur how did Dalal screw that up! And not GA of course, I was kidding about that one! And the positivity was > 10% in FL in the past week? Oh, ignore that claim about herd immunity in FL too--see, Dalal was wrong! Dur I just change the original arguments to make sure it looks like Dalal was wrong! And of course I predicted all of this bc I am Nostradamus! LOL muscleman made money on his trade...good for him. He acknowledged market momentum and cases trending down and thought there was evidence of herd immunity. He actually committed to some sort of thesis! Imagine that? Then this guy, on the internet who habitually lies about everything, from being a doctor to predicting things, to actually not predicting things, to seeing great downside risk(as the market continues to rip his face off), comes in and goes "oh he was wrong about herd immunity bc of BUFFALO! I knew it"... strange behavior. I hope you made money on whatever trade you put on expressing "the other side" of what muscleman was betting on....but as usual I assume you didnt, and even if you claim you did, your dishonestly and lack of transparency would likely make it meaningless anyway. Thats your MO. Commit to nothing yourself but run around babbling and nitpicking anything and everything regarding people you disagree with. Then claim everyone else is wrong and you are right... Dalal Trump! indeed. A sorry narcissist with little hands!

And you keep doing your thing. Making things up. Crying wolf. Misrepresenting things. I mean we've seen plenty of people present herd immunity data for NYC, and here you come with Buffalo! LOL.... "For analytical eyes only!" All 33 of them! The stakes are high! And FYI. MGM MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates integrated casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts in the United States and Macau. The company operates through three segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its casino resorts offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. The company's casino operations include slots, table games, and race and sports book wagering. As of March 22, 2020, its portfolio consisted of 29 hotel and destination gaming offerings. The company also owns and operates Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Primm Valley Golf Club, and Fallen Oak golf course. Its customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp., together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts in Asia and the United States. It owns and operates The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, the Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao in Macao, the People's Republic of China; and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. The company also owns and operates The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino on the Las Vegas Strip; and the Sands Expo and Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Its integrated resorts feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, celebrity chef restaurants, and other amenities. Las Vegas Sands Corp. was founded in 1988 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited designs, develops, and operates integrated resorts. The company's Wynn Palace segment operates 424,000 square feet of casino space with 323 table games, 1,011 slot machines, private gaming salons, and sky casinos; a luxury hotel towers with 1,706 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including a health club, spa, salon, and pool; 14 food and beverage outlets; 106,000 square feet of retail space; 37,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and performance lake and floral art displays. Its Wynn Macau segment operates 252,000 square feet of casino space with 322 table games, 838 slot machines, private gaming salons, sky casinos, and a poker room; two luxury hotel with 1,010 guest rooms and suites that include two health clubs, two spas, a salon, and a pool; 12 food and beverage outlets; 59,000 square feet of retail space; 31,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and Chinese zodiac-inspired ceiling attractions. The company's Las Vegas Operations segment operates 192,000 square feet of casino space with 232 table games, 1,756 slot machines, private gaming salons, a sky casino, a poker room, and a race and sports book; two luxury hotel towers with a total of 4,748 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including swimming pools, private cabanas, two full service spas and salons, and a wedding chapel; 33 food and beverage outlets; 507,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; 160,000 square feet of retail space; and two theaters, three nightclubs and a beach club. Its Encore Boston Harbor segment operates 210,000 square feet of casino space with 161 table games, 2,833 slot machines, gaming areas, and a poker room; a hotel tower, including 671 guest rooms and suites; 16 food and beverage outlets and a nightclub; 8,000 square feet of retail space; 71,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and a waterfront park, floral displays, and water shuttle service. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. But Im sure you have some arcane, Taleb inspired, attention seeking answer as to what "gambling" really is.....a profession?

Shit, and here I thought, by NY, they meant Roscoe, NY....what a tool. Couple hundred college students get COVID, markets downs 8,000 points. Go to cash. Short everything. This is what happens with wide uncertainty! Large downside! Did I mention, we're going to get more covid cases! Cuomo, what do we do with the nursing home folks this time? Ahhhh!

Doubling down on broken analyses and mischaracterizing the opposing people's positions to make yourself feel better about repeatedly being wrong. A surefire recipe for a lifetime of investment success! Nothing in this forum surprises me anymore! "Often wrong, never in doubt!" I hope you and your kind are invested in the markets! -Dalal, April 2020 LOL Endless wisdom from the "analytical" one. Make a claim: If right...well, sound the alarm If wrong...delete/modify/edit posts, twist narrative, claim you said something else that can still tangentially be argued as having merit. Go get em champ. Oh yea, another one! Dalal in March: mock the politics section Dalal now: living there "rent free" After all, "the stakes are high!" ROFLMAO

Good grief. So muscleman is accurate directionally, and has made money predicting the virus decline and market rise....but because he didnt "nail the number" so to speak on the exact decline...he is a worthy candy to give grief..... Meanwhile, on the other side, we've had: -go to cash! -people buying stonks are stoopid! -US will be worse than Italy(while referring to Lombardy as "Italy") -covid was supposedly not here in January/February -FL, GA, TX, AZ will have worse death rates than NY -FL, GA, TX, AZ hospitals will be over capacity any day now -Just wait 2 more weeks for death rates to exceed NY!(for 2+ months) -Celebration of "OMG TX JUST CROSSED 2% FATALITY RATE. I WAS RIGHT!" -Now "US is worse than Italy!" while deliberately referring to Italy as a whole country instead of just Lombardy as was the case prior Interesting indeed...to each their own I guess. My only question to muscleman would be: You expected the case figures to decline more, which is still likely on the table. The market has risen, indeed. But you referenced several times, an "Asset bubble" forming. I have a hard time declaring whats occurred during the timeframe of your trade(maybe 4-6 weeks?) as an asset bubble running its course. So, what changed? Is it just the expectation of the Fed? Or is there more to it? Personally I think between where case numbers could be by Election Day, stimulus talks still not concluded, and a possible greater reopening in certain areas, there would be ample catalysts to keep blowing hot air into the bubble.

Gambling is entertainment. You pay to be entertained. That's all there is to it.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/28/madison-square-garden-to-be-a-2020-voting-site-starting-oct-24/ Hmmm. We can open the Garden for political reasons, but not for business as usual....thats the current state of NY, and probably what I'd expect it to be for the next few months.

I'll leave a little sleuthing because if one thinks calling out companies is risky, calling out lawyers and accountants is even worse, but will put it like this. Its not any of the big four or regularly viewed consensus top 8-10, with one exception. I've found, somewhat more frequently than others, BDO pops up which may be the result of their franchise type model, especially overseas, but out of the big ones, they IMO seem to have hiccups more than others. For the rest, ie outside of that top 10-ish type....if you can gather lists of known stock promotions, specifically relating to Chinese listed US, and especially stuff like Canadian mining companies or Boca Raton based medical/biotech companies, you'll see the same names pop up somewhat frequently. I dont know if I would go as far as to say that they deliberately hide sketchy behaviors, but maybe they just arent that thorough, and believe me, the folks who are running these types of things know it. Also look at companies associated with a certain Florida based fellow going by the initials BH.

If you run a fraud, you definitely want auditors that work shit. Or does it make sense for managers to pay auditors to uncover your fraud? There are actually, a couple well known, "go-to" auditors that always seem to be associated with....certain types of companies. Just like there are a couple well know law firms that seem to always get a lot of business from the P&D's or serial equity issuers.

I can assure you with 50/50 odds, mathematically your EV is 0. Blackjack without counting and perfect play is like 49.5 / 50.5, so you still have a negative EV, no matter how you "double down" or choose to take your profit. Actually with 50/50 odds, the casino would go broke on roulette. I've turned $50 into a couple thousand dollars numerous times in just a few hours without losing my bankroll in roulette...but you have to have high table limits and low minimum bets, and ideally either 0 or 00, but not both. European roulette only has 0, while American roulette has both. If you can find European roulette tables...play them instead of American. Why only a couple thousand dollars? Because the table limit at the casinos I've played is $500 or $1000. You start at $5 and double down on either red or black after a run of at least 5 reds or 5 blacks...so you have to be patient. Every time you win, you start at $5 again. Every time you lose, you make sure you double down on the subsequent bet. You'll only be able to double-down 5 or 6 times before hitting the table limit, so you only bet once you see 5 reds or 5 blacks in a row. Yes, yes, your probability of winning on any single spin is 50/50, but the probability of 7,8,9 in a row of the same color becomes less and less likely. This takes time, because 5 blacks or 5 reds in a row only come up every 20-30 minutes or so. I used to do this in my 20's and often it would take 5-10 hours of patiently playing. But I never lost my bankroll, and I did it at least 25-30 times, usually turning a $50 bankroll into $900-$1500. Often you would win small amounts until your bankroll increased in size, eventually allowing you to take slightly larger initial bets of $25-50. But the number of times you double-down would decrease whenever you were wrong. On the rare occasion 0 would show up and you start over at smaller bets...on rare occasions, you would have lost all that you gained that day and walk away with your $50 bankroll. I've never played roulette in Vegas, but I hear the limits are around $10-15K per bet. When I started investing after learning about Buffett and value investing, I promised myself that I would never gamble again, and I haven't. I understand that there are online roulette games with very high limits. I haven't tried them, nor have the urge to try them. You have less than 50/50 odds playing roulette...American or European. Going back to Mohnish's example, if you are right about your stocks even just 55-60% of the time, and you can choose your punches, why do anything else! Cheers! This is probably a fun way to do some mental exercise, practice discipline, and stretch your night at the casino rather than risk being done with your risk allotted capital in a few minutes, but you are basically just tricking yourself into mentally getting comfortable making the same wager you could make randomly walking up to the first table you see upon arrival. Mark Wahlberg basically does this(well, the opposite of it) in The Gambler(a mediocre film about a degenerate gambler) and outside of his uncanny ability to win 7 hands in a row on the regular without ever knowing he always loses the 8th....its the same concept. But not much different than any other way of gambling. At least with investing, should your process generally be right, a short term loss is beneficial, and, well, a short term win is always fun. Win/win.

Yup. Thats why the casinos running 2 decks and playing them through was gold. If the deck was 70% played and loaded with high cards on the back end you knew you where good, and with the dealer showing a 5 doubling down with pretty much anything, including say an A/9 pays off. Or splitting 10s. Good luck doing that with 12 decks that get reshuffled halfway through.

Any examples of the sudden changes in when languages changes and subsequent events? Will try to go back and find a few. The couple I can think of, for several reasons, I probably dont want to disclose(ever gotten a cease a desist from a company? lol). Its partially a byproduct of following stuff a little too OCD and getting up peoples asses when they arent doing their jobs. But generally speaking, especially around proxy season, the releases are run by counsel. So the subtle changes, typically arent by accident. When boilerplate language gets changed, there is almost always a reason. Paraphrasing one from a bit ago, a specific company press release used to almost always tout its belief in their discount to FV. Then the releases stopped containing that couple sentences. Next quarter they did a dilutive transaction. Another one I can think of is when company's management harps on a story or narrative, and then the story/narrative runs its course, and they just change the story/narrative without ever addressing the previous one. This is a constant theme I look for in shorts....Cough Dropko Health. On the subsequent events section....I've found that often it is(the 10Q) released to comply with announcement of material events, if indeed they are deliberately burying stuff. Which brings me to another one....announcing bad news on a Friday after the close or on the half day of trading before big holidays.

Off of the last post, something Ive seen before.....when "new" risk factors are disclosed in the new 10k that hasn't been previously addressed. When items are disclosed in 10q but not on calls or at conferences, and also watch out for "subsequent events" disclosures. Lot of ways guys can bury bad news. Also, if you are familiar with a company, watch for when language changes. If something has "been" a certain way for a while, and then all of a sudden the same things are said differently, there is usually a reason.

Pabrai is effectively saying that he is 80% directionally right on each investment. Now the comparison does not hold fully when you consider varying time horizons. But that would be the gist. I still don't get it. How is he able to calculate with any degree of precision that a stock has a 4 out of 5 chance of going up? What would such a calculation even look like? He's not. I saw a decent conversation on Twitter(a rarity) the other day making the same point about how one should run, and fast, from any money manager talking about using Kelly criterion as part of their strategy. You cant use gambling based, probability reliant inputs for things(and odds) that are not stationary. Its marketing bullshit.

Perhaps it may be Salesforce...or maybe the market is really just kinda fun right now. Who the heck knows anymore.

The original card counting systems were scrapped largely when casinos went from a 2-4 deck approach to using 8+ decks and reshuffling half way through the round.

Markstrom stealing one for Vancouver tonight.

If you think so, buy a few of the warrants and then forget about it. I am speculatively long some of this. any risk the deal doesn't close? I have little more than just my opinion, but Ive followed SPACs for a long time, and even the most obviously terrible deals often find a way to close. This one really shouldn't have a problem, and IIRC, they've already got quite a lineup for the PIPE. Only way it doesnt close is if you have folks who rather get their $10 a share back, IE -40% from todays close. Hard to see enough people willingly taking a haircut like that.

If you think so, buy a few of the warrants and then forget about it. I am speculatively long some of this.

“I’m definitely bearish on malls,” Ms. McKee said. “But I think it’s a very case-by-case basis. I don’t think all malls are dying.” Well, well, well. Thanks Missy.