Gregmal

Well your buddy sounds like he's a twat. Businesses sure have an option they could have denied him entry. He probably just happened upon one of the more "soft" employees and got away with it. This isn't an America vs. China thing either. All countries have twats. But I guess some more than others. Well, the store in reference was Wal-Mart, so if thats how they handle it Im not sure anyone else will fare much better. And I'd reclassify "buddy" and "acquaintance". We're looking at repurposing and getting entitlements for a parcel that can ideally be flipped into a QSR with a NNN lease. So I've got at least a couple reasons to look beyond someone's way of dealing with one issue in THEIR(not my) life. And yes, it isn't an America vs China(or any other country thing), which is again why its puzzling when people take(as DooDiligence brought up) MSM headlines and try to make apples to oranges comparisons of why "this country does this, and we do that!".... Context is always important. @DooDiligence I dont really get what your deal is. You have continuously chimed in with comments of the same ilk you supposedly object to others making. Not just with me, but with a handful of other posters on this thread and others, you lose your mind and go off the rails whenever someone presents a viewpoint different than yours, often devolving into name calling and labelling or painting them "with the same brush"...rather than engage in anything useful. Outside of the obvious lack of tolerance, the fragility of mindset just seems counter productive to what one would seek out on a forum like this. While some do choose to employ the "ostrich in the sand" approach, a good rule of thumb for anything in life is to: 1) know the terrain 2) know the players 3) know the incentives With this in mind, it is hard to fathom how some wallow through everyday life in America with pie in the sky ambitions and generally benevolent and ignorant interpretations of what can possibly come their way. Sure, there are people who wear masks, follow the law, donate to charities, give the shirt off their back to others, etc...but there are also predatory folks who lie, cheat, steal, and well, may not wear masks. I cant imagine being the individual who goes out and loses my shit because "AHHHHH, TROLL!. NOT WEARING FACEMASKS! WTF!!! AH JUST LIKE TWITTER!". Rather you go out and expect the worst while hoping for the best and when you encountering things within the realm of those possibilities, deal with them from a position of strength because you thought ahead and have a plan. I'm spending the week at a shore property. 3rd floor. Everyone is lining up for the elevator. I personally think the elevator is as dangerous a place for virus spread as any, and, along with my family, willingly take the stairs.... Go apply that thought process to everything in life and things won't be so daunting for you. So sure, "not all (insert name) are jerks/assholes/whatever", thats definitely true. But being the fool who walks through life naive to realities and risks because in his head lies some vision of "how it should be", is probably a recipe for disaster. But I wouldn't know. I dont live like that. And my life is pretty good.

It's an interesting point. I've thought about this in the past because it kinda works like that with HIV. I'm not sure how it will shake out. But I am sure sooner rather than later this issue will come before the courts. It’s a bigger issue for business than for individuals, imo. Imagine an outbreak in a large office building etc. FWIW, I wonder how these meat processor for example deal with this. They likely get sued already. Yes one would think that once things settle down, the lawyers will get busy. The problem with criminal charges, of course, is proving the case. However, in areas where masks are mandatory you will have a certain number of twits who will still refuse to wear them, as well as those who will object to any bylaw on the grounds of their perception of "civil rights". If it were publicized that not wearing a mask could possibly kill people and potentially lead to serious criminal charges, it might persuade more to understand the seriousness of wearing masks. A local developer I shoot the shit with on occasion was boasting to me, "the store said I must wear a mask, so I put it on my elbow and walked into the store. When their guy stopped me, he said I had to wear a mask and I told him I was, and that nothing anywhere said "where" I had to wear it. That I had a medical condition, and if he insisted I put it over my face, to show a law that said specifically that, and provide his name, company position, and contact details in the event he ended up having breathing issues as a result of the mask, so he could sue." The employee(who was just doing his job) let him continue on through the store, with the mask on his elbow. Another person I saw at Home Depot had a Halloween mask on, with a giant, open, breathing hole directly around the lower half of the face. America isn't China. If you want to force people to do stuff, you have to really go to great lengths to make it happen, and even still, will face opposition along the way, from the lawyers just looking to make a buck, down to the stubborn everyday citizen. A lot of people dont really understand this. The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

I think you're misreading the situation. I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc. Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that. As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market.. While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries.... What are these extremely compelling long and short term investments you speak of? I'll respond out of respect this is a legitimate question and not some attempt to nitpick or fight like a lot of posters seem to want to do. Short term, just look at who's making money...everyone. Pick your fancy and your strategy or risk tolerance. As some of us discussed on another thread here, even the most conservative of fellows could have bought pre deal SPAC significantly below NAV. Even still, right now, you've got a risk skew where buying pre deal SPAC stuff is interesting as a lot of deals are getting 20%+ pops on announcement, vs an set downside via redemption. Further short term, you've got obvious as F bankruptcy candidates getting lifelines they dont deserve, but still without any shot ever, of getting out of the death spiral. I've previously mentioned some names, almost all of them filed, including CBL last night. You've also got froth inspired pump and dumps popping up; and IPO's going batshit again. All this made possible by the current goldilocks scenario enabled by everything brought about by the virus. Longer term is pretty easy, IMO. Again, pick your preference. Berkshire is probably as cheap as it's been in a very long time. You've got REIT's trading a historic spreads to treasuries while still providing protection against possible inflation. You've got stuff in specific locations or sectors, that is purely time arbitrage. IE NYC RE or sports and entertainment. This stuff largely de-risked by the fact that herd immunity or vaccine, 2 years from now this will be over and we've already gotten proof through the rabid behavior of society upon reopening; people are not scarred and certainly won't refuse to resume their normal course lives once this is all over. The only question to ask oneself is how much volatility can you handle over the next 12-24 months? The risk of course is watch the balance sheets. But, strictly in terms of being a market participant, there really is something for everyone in this type of market. As a whole, I certainly think its overvalued. But I dont think continuing to hope the virus pops the bubble is fruitful. Pick which Dave you want to be. You can be like Einhorn, and despite continuously being wrong, continue to think you are right and that eventually you'll be proven so; or you can be like Tepper and cautiously reevaluate the variable until you find which ones are driving the correlation. Once you find the strings that move the puppet, you can plan much more accordingly. Rather than waiting for 100k corona cases a day and then going "ZOMG! the market is so overvalued and people are dying".... EDIT: was just reminded of another prosperous strategy some board members have made money on of late, the "Quote Graham but buy RobinHood" strategy. Buy TSLA, PTON, HTZ, NKLA!

Why did you sell BAM in the first place? I sold along with BX towards the end of last year because I just didnt like the risk/reward anymore. For myself, I'll never be the guy to find the accounting errors or shenanigans with companies of this type of complexity, so position sizing and awareness of where we are at least perceived to be, in the cycle is important. I still find the risk to be quite high, but I think we are starting to get a decent idea of where/how the current situation can play out, and without question, players like BAM, SPG, BX have both the expertise, and finial strength, to become large benefactors of such opportunities. So I'd say the risk is probably the same, maybe even a bit higher than 6 months ago, but at the same time, the opportunity for reward over a medium duration time horizon has increased significantly. Absolutely awesome post, Greg, Food for thought. 6 months ago we had predators, pretend predators, and even some prey out hunting for scant fish. The tide has gone out quite a bit, and even some predators currently sport flesh wounds. The prey is superfluous, and in some aspects, the nets are closing in, forcing those vulnerable into their demise, one way or another. Not a bad time to bet on the ultimate apex predators. Just my opinion of course. My industry contacts seem to think that valuations may improve somewhat over the next 6 months, but the worst is yet to come in terms of companies "fighting the good fight", as their will to fight diminishes and they ultimately yield to the forces of nature, figuring energy is best spend on new ventures. So if I'm BX or BAM.... well, come to papa! We already know they are ruthless and predatory, and these are the environments in which they thrive.

Got it. You think this is a significantly bigger deal and the market should be much lower and you're buying FB and IAC at questionable multiples(if your analysis is correct) and economically sensitive MA, and doomsday virus related business pureplay Berkshire.... yes. Very consistent. In fact, logically, that is incompatible. But dont dare discuss, stick to one liners.

And.......the last couple posts really just provide confirmation of the void of useful investment related conversation on... an investment board. Cheers!

I think you're misreading the situation. I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc. Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that. As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market.. While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries....

It's often wrong on a very short term basis, just like it was in March. Anyone who can not see that this is hardly an "extinction level" event, shouldn't be in the markets to begin with. As much as some of you want it to be, it isn't. What I will say though, is instead of ambiguous one liners or open ended counter points, make a prediction? If its all doom and gloom as some say, then say something! Dont just sit there and insinuate end of world scenarios, going to cash, shorting everything under then sun, and then flip the script, edit your posts, and then go away until you can back pedal your way into another "see I was right" scenario. I've clearly communicated my concerns about the market and what could really drag this down(IE government intervention). Ive also said I believe and am wagering we have a vaccine much soon then most expected(IE 18 months from March), and possible even before year end. I've also clearly expressed some of how Im playing it. So, open book here..others not so much. Just continued rambling about "OMG NEW CASE RECORD!" "US SHATTERS RECORD"....when I think its clear at this point, the total number of cases doesnt matter any more than it does for the flu, and the market started recognizing this a little while ago. Orrrrrr.....some can continue to take the path of "I, Joe Schmoe from so and so, am right about the markets, and hundreds, thousands, millions of other participants that make the market, are wrong".....to each their own.

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...." I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

Why did you sell BAM in the first place? I sold along with BX towards the end of last year because I just didnt like the risk/reward anymore. For myself, I'll never be the guy to find the accounting errors or shenanigans with companies of this type of complexity, so position sizing and awareness of where we are at least perceived to be, in the cycle is important. I still find the risk to be quite high, but I think we are starting to get a decent idea of where/how the current situation can play out, and without question, players like BAM, SPG, BX have both the expertise, and finial strength, to become large benefactors of such opportunities. So I'd say the risk is probably the same, maybe even a bit higher than 6 months ago, but at the same time, the opportunity for reward over a medium duration time horizon has increased significantly.

Yea companies have many ways of finding out who their shareholders are. Ever wonder how that $200M company found a way to reach out to you and your $300k position during a proxy fight?

Is there a reason why you prefer something like SDS over just shorting ES? I don’t see it, but I may be missing something. Regulatory burdens make it very difficult to operate managed accounts using certain types of instruments/securities. Even leveraged ETFs require a nonsensical amount of paperwork and disclosure/cya material. Futures I won't touch for SMAs.

WOW! They're really going all in on this. Weird! It's a weird mentality that changing your mind is a sign of weakness, rather than a sign of learning. Is it really that? Or is it this much simpler and stupider game of "whatever position you(democrat) take I(republican) have to take the other side"? A game that only seems profitable in politics.

Added a few more RPTX and some August VIX calls EOD.

You mean politicizing Goya beans isn't important right now?

$SPAQ down a good amount. Beware Boredom! $SDS also has a dry cough. Sold the SPAQ warrants Monday at the open. Was just banking on the Fisker announcement confirmation, which happened. SDS sucks, but to me, especially if you consistently reposition it, it can be a cheaper hedging alternative. Dont at all recommend holding over night for more than a day or two tops, as the decay will kill you. Thx. I always wonder how folks deal with trades, especially losing ones. I had a small one going on with a “BLM“ Bank, but that was cheap stock that I wouldn’t have mind owning for a bit too. That trade made a little profit. Typically, I find these things just a distraction and rather stay away, but sometimes there is an urge to do something. Yea I'd generally agree. I read a pretty neat quote somewhere about how "more money has been lost "preparing" for the crash, than has been lost in crashes"... or something like that. However I think the current situation is quite extraordinary and to a degree, if the market goes up 15% by the time this is over and done with, and I only make 5%, I'm OK with that provided I'm putting on trades that protect against things going badly the other way.

Georgia in 2020.... when you're trying to be dumber than Alabama. LOL tolerance and stereotypes FTW!

$SPAQ down a good amount. Beware Boredom! $SDS also has a dry cough. Sold the SPAQ warrants Monday at the open. Was just banking on the Fisker announcement confirmation, which happened. SDS sucks, but to me, especially if you consistently reposition it, it can be a cheaper hedging alternative. Dont at all recommend holding over night for more than a day or two tops, as the decay will kill you.

rebought a small position in BAM, added to ESRT, and added a little to ILMN.

Well, beware of November then, if that is what you think is holding this up. Personally, I think the markets have come to terms that March was a media hoax and that while the virus is real, it is much closer to the flu than some doomsday bug. To the extent that politicians dont shut the economy down, things will grind it out, with the weaker numbers more than offset by confirmation of long term ZIRP and the goldilocks scenario where mainstreet needs stimulus for a longer time than Wall St does. I am still quite bearish, but this seems to be my read on why the market is trading where it is. Further, as BG mentioned, we had extreme excess and exuberance in some social media and biotech maybe 5 years ago, tech and pot 3 or so years ago, etc, which shook itself out. There certainly isn't a case that there arent stocks you can buy for reasonable valuations right now. But as always, you have to pay up for quality. If you wanted firesale prices, you should have been buying in March.

I love Kyle Bass. Listening to him is quite enjoyable and he is excellent at bringing forth unique logical framework and outside the box ideas. At the same time, yeah, you're better off just listening.

I don't know the underlying approach of the person's trades but it's not as if he was George Soros who took extremely speculative positions, but the his downside was capped. At that moment, there was no verifiable information that could lead the person to think that it would be good trades. The odds in my humble opinion were 60/40 at best, but then again, the person may have a different perspective or thought process that I may not be able to wrap my head around. Secondly, if the person really titled his contribution "Suck It Value Investors!" That kind of says it all for me because people never typically never get criticized by people doing more than them. I admit this is an overly simplified look on this - either way, I rather read this than someone who lost their life savings. What I mean is that he obviously found very early on that some stuff would be more effected by COVID news that others, and rode that trend to the bank. There is definitely rhyme and reason to many of the trades. The timing definitely seems lucky, but I think there's a fair amount of skill involved in what was executed here. Whether its repeatable or not....IDK.

Well, I wouldn't totally overlook the underlying fact that, while this guy took an extremely speculative approach, there is a certain power to momentum and trend following, one in which he very obviously exploited here. Theres a common thread to what he goes long and what he goes short. I think more credit is deserved here than maybe first glance would indicate.

Personally, I am infuriated Trump didnt put all the young people in America in cages. Would have definitely stopped the massive spreads occurring at bars and restaurants everywhere....

Great success with Covid. Economy? Not so much if you're shutting down every few dozen cases...