Dalal.Holdings

Given our existing dataset, we should know within a week or so if deaths inflect upwards if we expect the same lag time as in late March to hold. Nationally, cases really started inflecting up about 1 week ago, so it may be too soon to celebrate falling mortality numbers....Precautionary principle tells me better to worry than to blow it off and start celebrating, but that’s just me. Additionally, anyone looking at the daily data should see an obvious 7 day periodicity to the bars—rising during weekdays and falling on weekends with lowest counts on Sundays. This probably relates to testing/labs/reporting/etc falling during weekend as the virus doesn’t take weekends off, but some staff do. I would not celebrate too soon by looking at Sunday’s numbers of mortality (which is a lagging indicator itself). Saturday/Sunday’s case number continues to rise despite the weekend effect though which suggests even further rise in cases this week...

Lol... Something else that’s “weird”—the mortality graph is shifted to the right when compared to the case graph...almost like mortality lags cases and cases can be seen as an early warning sign of where mortality might be headed...hmmm...

I'm literally attaching the graph from your "Florida seems to be doing just fine" tweet and circling June hospitalizations here in case you miss it (#1 and #2 are the phased reopening marked by original tweet)... Again, you do not seem to understand how lagging indicators work. Hospitalizations/mortality move after delay due to the time course of covid infection (weeks after cases which are the leading indicators). Here you see hospitalizations trend down slightly after reopening, then back up in June (due to inherent delay) as expected. Younger age of cases does explain some of decreased mortality (so far) and weather/climate/humidity might help too (though it doesn't help Brazil). However there is a clear rise in % of positive tests, there are too many uncertainties, and this movie has played itself many times before in the same way to be ignored. Bottom line is that cases are shooting up in many states, hospitalizations are trending up, and hospitalizations/mortality are lagging indicators that should not be looked at as early warning signs... How are you differentiating between hospitalizations for medical issues other then covid/post op patients and those only with a postive covid dx and need for treatment? Am I missing this in the graph somewhere? ER vists across the country are up 100% of percent month over month. Are you counting admissions from this and non outpatient surgeries? That graph is from jamesmadison’s twitter source and it only includes FL covid hospitalizations per the author. As to your other point, I cannot speak for anyone else on here, but the argument was on how widespread covid was in USA in Jan/Feb and the difference of opinion I had with you was that it was not widespread, but did exist here in certain places like WA state back in January in smaller clusters in early stage exponential growth... I believe that the notion of it being “widespread” meaning millions or hundreds of thousands of cases in USA in Jan/Feb is debunked and there is nothing I have seen that supports that thesis, that is all.

I'm literally attaching the graph from your "Florida seems to be doing just fine" tweet and circling June hospitalizations here in case you miss it (#1 and #2 are the phased reopening marked by original tweet)... Again, you do not seem to understand how lagging indicators work. Hospitalizations/mortality move after delay due to the time course of covid infection (weeks after cases which are the leading indicators). Here you see hospitalizations trend down slightly after reopening, then back up in June (due to inherent delay) as expected. Younger age of cases does explain some of decreased mortality (so far) and weather/climate/humidity might help too (though it doesn't help Brazil). However there is a clear rise in % of positive tests, there are too many uncertainties, and this movie has played itself many times before in the same way to be ignored. Bottom line is that cases are shooting up in many states, hospitalizations are trending up, and hospitalizations/mortality are lagging indicators that should not be looked at as early warning signs...

One needs to stratify the U.S. by region to truly understand what is happening:

Nothing. To See. Here.

Speaking as one of Orhopa's smuggest critics, 100,000 deaths and mass graves were proof enough for me that he was wrong. Apparently to believe the "widespread/millions infected in January" thesis, you'd have to believe hundreds of thousands died back then and doctors had no idea what it was and put something else on the death certificate...Also none of those millions of people made it to FL, AZ, TX, OK, etc until now in June... Also, love the strawman attempt--to accuse those like us who saying it most certainly was not widespread in U.S. January as if we were saying it was not at all here in U.S. in January--we clearly stated it was here in Jan, particularly in WA state (even citing an infectious disease doctor in Seattle who was ignored back in January by Federal gov't/FDA). But yeah, either some people have memory problems or just aim to mislead about what was argued in the past. *Shrugs*

This is what some people call a failure of lockdowns: Remember, lockdowns went into effect in late March in NY and on March 9th in Italy, but we should ignore that timing. Clearly lockdowns do not work because they did not cause deaths to go down immediately on the day they went into effect. With lockdowns, we should expect deaths to decline immediately, not 2-3 weeks later like doctors say due to the natural progression of covid infection from onset to mortality. Again, we do not understand lagging indicators on here... It turns out in the case of Italy and NY, they might have been late when it comes to locking down, but it turns out that it is better late than never when it comes do lockdowns. Here we see two countries where universal lockdowns were not imposed (no eating carrots before moving onto dessert)--compare these to Italy, NY, and the EU--note the righthand part of the graphs: USA: Sweden (daily new cases): Sorry for polluting your precious minds with "useless" graphs!

Lol! For some reason, there is a strong "correlation" between whether one favors Trump and their willingness to dismiss the pandemic--the (former politics section Trumper) brigade is out in full force in this thread. Anyone want to run a regression on it? As I said--you get the "analysis" you deserve, CoBF. Here's one for people who are not beyond the level of reading graphs: Nothing to see here folks--just fake news alarmism and another dumb graph! Clearly it's just a blip of a "second wave" for FL, not a surging first wave at all! After all, it's been in the millions since January! And ignore those like me who disappear and then come back to warn like I did in early March. After all, I am focused on cases which in my flawed view are leading indicators of what's to come...Remember, we should ignore cases and focus on hospitalizations and mortality. Clearly mortality is going down when you divide by cases. And of course hospitalizations and mortality are the predictive indicators to look at right now, they are not lagging indicators, amirite? We clearly don't understand what lagging indicator means anyway on here...derp. Also, those claiming it's been here and "millions were infected" and that they saw many patients who had it in January--so strange that it is only surging now in FL in June. Weird--if it was widespread in January, what took so long to get to FL? Top level analysis. Keep it up.

What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic... You are listing NY and NJ as examples of places in the US that "ate their veggies". I find it astonishing that you would list the two states with the worst per capita covid death rates (4x the national average!!) as positive examples. You mention Spain and Italy as now doing well and call out Sweden, ignoring the simple fact that Sweden's per capita Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain. I am sorry, but this is not a persuasive argument. The evidence simply does not support that argument that Lockdowns (or Social Mobility) are what's driving the level of Covid mortality. I can’t help you. Good luck with that regression.

What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide when it counted. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic...

This don’t look like the best time to hold an indoor rally, but wut do I kno? MAGA!

For some reason, the USA, the global epicenter of the pandemic (despite being hit late), continues to look bad and worse than just about any other place in the world including Wuhan and Italy. Surely this must be due to some 2 weeks protests in early June or the governor of a single state and yet have nothing to do with national leadership. Love reading the arguments that attempt to deflect the blame and our political brigade’s success in introducing topics such as flags up in this thread. Carry on and enjoy the rally.

Oh boy, regression analysis to hunt for correlations. Where could we go wrong? Let’s ignore basic physics of respiratory droplet spread and trust regression analysis! Please ignore Sweden and Italy/Spain/NY/NJ post lockdown. Some will never learn, dragging the U.S. through a never ending pandemic quagmire...

Clearly our political leader has nothing to do with the (mis)management of the pandemic! Trump defender brigade can’t answer, so deflect, deflect, deflect. And don’t look at the pile of 100k bodies...

Lockdowns worked even in Italy and Spain. In America by contrast, you are learning that elections have very real consequences. Some will never learn.

Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow? I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level... Arizona and Florida are starting to look bad. But has anyone taken a look at Oklahoma? They printed 450 cases which is a 74% increase over the previous all time high. Which was... the day before. Of course! We all know the biggest protests in the U.S took place in Oklahoma/AZ/FL, not in places seeing decline like NY! CHAZ is contributing to cases in OK, FL, AZ too! This fits neatly into my impervious political narrative of shunting blame onto leftist ANTIFA or Cuomo or whoever else away from my precious POTUS! And now we need a massive, maskless indoor rally to celebrate! That's the point. If we aren't seeing increases where the protests took place, that calls into question the benefits of the enforced lockdowns, no? The EU and rest of world would like to have a word with you. I know, lockdowns (after all the precaution was botched from January thru March) only work outside the U.S. for some reason... The benefit of locking some states down over others may now fade away because some states went their own way and we have no rational federal/centralized leadership that could have led a coordinated response. It’s a hoax like the Flu anyway so it doesn’t matter. Also so strange that it is surging in places like FL and AZ now when I was told this has been widespread since January. Maybe none of the millions who had it back in January made it to those states till now...

Head of the WH corona task force a few days ago: https://www.wsj.com/articles/there-isnt-a-coronavirus-second-wave-11592327890 He’s kind of right though—there can’t be a second wave when you have not even properly dealt with the first...

Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow? I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level... Arizona and Florida are starting to look bad. But has anyone taken a look at Oklahoma? They printed 450 cases which is a 74% increase over the previous all time high. Which was... the day before. Of course! We all know the biggest protests in the U.S took place in Oklahoma/AZ/FL, not in places seeing decline like NY! CHAZ is contributing to cases in OK, FL, AZ too! This fits neatly into my impervious political narrative of shunting blame onto leftist ANTIFA or Cuomo or whoever else away from my precious POTUS! And now we need a massive, maskless indoor rally to celebrate!

That’s no second wave, it’s a thoroughly mismanaged first wave. Who would have though elections can have such severe consequences? Where are Jared, Pence, and Ivanka when u need them? MAGA!

Meanwhile, in cesspool states, many with libtard governors who shut down: Looks like Germany/Spain/Italy...too bad, all the economic punishment taken by locking down may all be in vain thanks to our other members of the Union! Are we Great Again Yet?

As you can see from one of the last countries hit w the pandemic (USA), leadership does not matter—now hold that indoor rally with 20k! “You’re doin’ fine, Oklahoma! Oklahoma, OK!” A shame we had to change the slogan from “Keep America Great” back to “Make America Great Again” (strange slogan for an incumbent...). Surely we will achieve greatness on our current trajectory, all we need is four more years of this!

It’s all politics! Millions of cases since January! Like the Flu! Only dense blue areas affected due to poor mgmt but not R0! Ignore Miami and Houston and dumb graphs I don’t understand! Good luck

This is why I no longer post here. You get the level of analysis you deserve, CoBF!

Yeah, same arguments have been used about Bezos' ventures. You should pursue the strategy you are proposing here: invest while looking in the rear view mirror (Boeing) instead of through the windshield. P.S., based on private valuations for SpaceX and public valuations for Tesla, do you really want me to answer the question "much money has Elon made per dollar invested for its investors"? Yeah, I get it, you are fixated on trailing GAAP earnings or some other profit measure. I don't think that's the right way to look at these--especially not SpaceX at this stage, but good luck. Exactly. Compare capital raised to what they’ve accomplished. How much would it have cost NASA/Boeing/Lockheed to achieve the same things? In a lot of cases these firms have taken the money and produced nothing of value other than non functional prototypes. SpaceX has produced lots of value however with tiny capital as an underdog against these behemoths. That’s good capital allocation in my book. I know, to basic value investors, capital allocation only applies to buybacks and mergers and immediate GAAP ROIs. People like Bezos and Musk pursue a different route and in the process achieve massive moats. Sorry, but it can work out very, very well for investors. Either adapt to this reality or not in this ZIRP world. Your choice.