rkbabang

I look at it differently. The money / store of value function of gold IS its utility. This is something humanity needs, same as we need transportation, communications, food, water, etc, etc. BTC is a pure play store of value, better at it than gold, without the other uses complicating things.

Not an exact comparison, since silver tarnishes and gold doesn't. Aluminum would actually be a better comparison. Gold however is far more rare than silver or aluminum. So maybe the over valuation isn't quite 99%, but you are in the ball park.

I don't know what the ultimate value of BTC will be, or even should be. No one does, but that doesn't mean it isn't calculable. There are 21M BTC (I know some have been lost, so 21M at most). The wealth which it will need to ultimately store is in the tens (maybe hundreds) of trillions USD. You can get a rough number from that. You don't need to be exact just roughly right. If I am correct it will reach a point where it is stable and grow only with the productivity of the economy. It will be a roller coaster until then as money is as much a cultural thing as it is a market or political thing. It will take time.

Gold would have very little value if used only for its industrial uses. It would be priced much lower and used much more if it wasn't valued as money or a store of value.

Exactly. This was setup to fail. What you see failing and what you are going to continue to see failing are the centralized "coins" and exchanges. It is a proof that public blockchains have value not a refutation of it. Creating a centralized organization around crypto is like writing an email, saving it on a floppy disk, and mailing it via the USPS. "See! Email is useless!"

Not that I would criticize them in any way for it. They did what worked for them and it worked like nothing else ever has for anyone else. My criticism is strictly pointed only in the direction of the people who think that it is impossible for them to ever be wrong about anything. I don't think Buffett and Munger consider themselves to be omniscient or infallible, but some of their followers clearly think that and aren't afraid to say so.

Do the Charlie & Warren worshipers who say things like "It always surprises me that when Buffett and Munger say that cryptocurrencies are worthless, there are thousands of intelligent people arguing otherwise," even acknowledge that it is possible for them to be wrong about something? Are they even human? I wouldn't be surprised to see a cult form after their deaths and every word they've ever spoken published as the cults gospel. No one is always correct. Einstein made mistakes too, he even admitted to them later on. The fact is that whether it has been colorful shells from far away or rare shiny metals, the free market has always used the hardest thing to create, find, or duplicate as money, as long as it was also easily transported, divided, and fungible. That was gold for centuries, but right now on planet Earth it is Bitcoin.

Then don’t.

The problem is they keep calling people who make a lot of money fast “the next Buffett”. But that isn’t how Buffett did it himself. The ones calling these people the next Warren Buffett don’t understand Warren Buffett. It isn’t a curse, just misapplied labeling.

Statistically air travel is safer, so if everyone is on a different flight the seed phrase should be safe.

I agree. Fidelity is rolling out their crypto accounts soon, but they will be limited at first. You will not be able to withdraw your crypto into a private wallet. Once Fidelity allows crypto withdrawals I doubt that I will ever use Coinbase again.

This is true. You need to make arrangements for this with someone you trust while you are still alive. And maybe a backup if that person is someone you are frequently in a car or plane together with.

The good thing about a CBDC is that it will replace the scammy stable coins like Tether. It will make exchanges between BTC and USD easier and safer without putting some shady stable coin in the middle. That will make the market more efficient and less prone to a crisis like what will happen when Tether finally blows up as I expect it will. BTC isn't going away. The USD is not a safe store of value and never will be, BTC isn't now, but it will eventually become one.

Agreed. I use COIN's trading services, then get everything right back out. I was nervous as hell when I sold my crypto last year and had a large dollar amount in Coinbase for a couple of weeks. I put the entire amount I wanted to sell in all at once and sold it. I didn't realize Coinbase had a cash withdrawal limit. I could only transfer a certain amount per day and a certain amount per week into my bank account. Had I realized this I would have sold my crypto over a few weeks rather than all at once. Live and learn. I don't trust the exchanges at all. We've seen blowups in the past and will see more in the future. People seem not to be able to learn that lesson.

"We saw what can go wrong if a centralized token, trading on an unregistered exchange, blow up this week," Saylor said in a CNBC interview. "I think the bitcoiners have been predicting this for a long time." "Saylor said that now is a "really good time" to be accumulating bitcoin." https://seekingalpha.com/news/3905742-microstrategys-saylor-we-feel-like-we-are-trapped-in-a-dysfunctional-relationship-with-crypto-and-we-want-out I agree.

My guess is Tether. Saylor just has to keep holding and maybe adding and he'll be fine.

The same place your money goes if you had deposits at a bank that went bankrupt before FDIC. It has been said before and can't be repeated enough: "Not your keys, not your crypto".

At current prices about 15% right now. I sold almost half of my crypto in 2021 when BTC was above $50K and ETH was above $4K. Before I sold at those prices crypto was almost 50% of my portfolio which made me uncomfortable.

I do exactly what longnose does. Buy on Coinbase then move it to a wallet. I never leave more than $3k or so on Coinbase. I plan on holding at least 10 years, probably much longer.

I’m still buying as well. I’ll be buying all the way down. My prediction based on previous cycles is that it reaches as low as $12K-$13K. We’ve discussed what makes Bitcoin valuable already in this thread multiple times, so I won’t repeat what has already been said. I know not everyone agrees, but that’s what makes a market.

+1 I read "The Madness of Crowds", by Douglas Murray earlier this year, I'll have to read that one too.

Well said. People can be incredibly stupid on certain subjects and political and/or religious beliefs tend to amplify the stupidity to enormous levels.

And more BTC

Added to a bunch of positions yesterday and this morning. JOE, AIV, AIV $5 2024 calls, AIV $10 2024 calls, BRKB, and SRUUF.

Aren't even "short term risks" a serious problem when it is something that they are recommending we take multiple times per year for the foreseeable future starting at a very young age? A short term risk from something like say the MMR vaccine wouldn't be much of a problem because you take it 2 times in your life. But a short term risk from something you take a few times per year your entire life seems like it would be a much more serious issue.