sleepydragon

ASTS stock + also sold ASTS puts

I doubt Israel will stop now. What bargain chip iran has, nothing at all. The risk to the oil price to the downside is a regime change. If they end up negotiating their way out, it will only buy more times for the regime who will use oil as leverage which will drive oil price higher —- imo. I am no expert in this.

Many comments say this could ne just normal exercise :

Yes, seems like a miss fire

Israel is hitting Iran’s oil facilities. oil price a lot higher on monday

So will iran close Straight of Hormuz? seems that will be quite effective to put pressure on US, and they now jabe have a new rail working to ship oil to china. separately, on twitter, there are posts saying peasants saw large military movements at night in guangdong

russia and now iran. Both selling oil to china. if china goes for Taiwan, we have www3

bought some GLD

Nvda put

My uneducated guess is this seems very bullish since he also said F2 has enough capital, meaning no ipo, meaning they will preserve commons, which is even bullish for preferred. Going public without exiting will make the whole process happen faster without the obstructions/concerns raised by people from congress. Aftet going public without exiting, F2 can continue to retain earnings and after a few years fullingly exit.

From ChatGPT: Great question. ### Could Fannie Mae's "go public but remain in conservatorship" scenario involve a **consent decree**? #### **Yes — It Could Take the Form of a Consent Decree, But with Caveats.** --- ## What a Consent Decree Would Mean in This Context A **consent decree** is a **court-approved settlement** between parties (often between a company and a regulator), where: * The company agrees to specific terms without admitting wrongdoing. * The terms are legally enforceable. * It avoids prolonged litigation or legislation. If Fannie Mae were to **go public under new terms, but stay under government oversight**, this transition could be **formalized through a consent decree or a similar binding agreement** among: * **Fannie Mae’s board/executives** * **FHFA (its conservator)** * **U.S. Treasury** * Possibly **the courts** This decree would: * **Set the terms** of recapitalization. * **Define shareholder treatment** (including existing common and preferred). * **Outline ongoing government oversight** even if stock is publicly offered. * **Protect the government’s stake** (the Treasury owns warrants for 79.9% of Fannie common stock). --- ## Why a Consent Decree Might Be Used A consent decree would: * Provide a **legal framework** for complex and politically sensitive restructuring. * **Avoid lengthy Congressional action**, which is gridlocked on GSE reform. * Be enforceable, giving **market confidence** in the structure and limits. * Help resolve **ongoing lawsuits** from shareholders by including settlement terms. --- ## Precedents & Legal Basis * Past regulatory settlements involving Fannie (e.g., the 2006 OFHEO agreement) functioned similarly. * A **modern consent decree** could: * Act as a hybrid between a **court order** and a **regulatory agreement**. * Be part of a **global settlement** with common and preferred shareholders. * Help resolve or preempt further litigation around the **“net worth sweep”**. --- ## Implications If the "go public" process is governed by a consent decree: * It **adds legal certainty** to recapitalization and oversight terms. * May **protect certain shareholder rights**, especially preferreds. * May **limit government exit timing**, giving investors a clearer roadmap. --- ## Summary | Element | Involvement in a Consent Decree Scenario | | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | **Fannie Mae** | Could agree to recapitalization terms and public listing under consent decree. | | **FHFA/Treasury** | Would enforce oversight and conditions through decree. | | **Shareholders** | Could see partial restitution or structured equity treatment. | | **Legal Framework** | Consent decree could replace or complement legislative GSE reform. | So yes—**a consent decree is a very plausible and potentially necessary legal tool** to formalize Fannie Mae’s public return while remaining under conservatorship. Would you like a diagram or flowchart of how this could work across stakeholders (Fannie, FHFA, Treasury, investors)?

FNMAS today

Seems many insurance companies are all falling this week. Feel like some fund is selling the entire industry. War? Interest rate? at the same time, gold silver oil are popping

Can someone explain to me why it seems there’s a war on twitter space between the prefers holders vs commons? A dollar more the commons get still means the same amount, no more or no less, for prefers owner.

yes, a JPM research report also said that. The reason they say is likely because there's really no details behinds all the news/twitter/tv interviews. Pluto's words are confusing

pulte says “go public without privatization “, and mentioned pink sheet. Is he implying one of the options is to relist current pink sheets to exchange first. If so, this seems to be good for commons but not so good for prefers? what Bessent said about he wanted to see the MBS spread to even narrows is also worrisome to me. The only way to narrows the spread seems to me an explicit guarantee or govt own the stocks forever. On the other hand, i think what Pulte says is possibly not very important

https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2024/12/09/release-2-0/ howard’s new comments. He agrees with Ackman on the commons. Shall we be buying the commons instead?

John, why are you keep adding to LV? i want to add to Lv but i dont have much conviction. The Chinese economy is a big question mark..

it is said there are already several proposals submitted by a few investment banks who want this business, and the proposals are being in front of Bessent.

I think 20bps is nothing, at current mortgage market of 6-7%. A mortgage quote from two national bank is more than 50bps. If i setup auto payment it’s 12.5bps discount.

There won't be much impact . I have seen a JPM research, where they have done a survey on their MBS funds clients - basically the result is as long as the implicit guarantee remains, the mortgage rate will go up 20 bps (or 40? to the best of my memory). There's only issue if govt says explicitly there will no guarantee.

One thing i like about Arnault is he still gets up like 6am on Saturday and visit stores in paris. And he tour around china and visit stores (bringing his son). There are a lot of videos on xiaohongshu by people who saw him checking out stores — especially back in 2023 when he was once the richest guy in the world.. there was even one he’s outside of Cartier’s store in shanghai

https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/china-us-tariffs-luxury-goods-market-bebf85b5?st=Dh1FWZ&reflink=article_copyURL_share

kering is more fashion than luxury. Arnault had the opportunity to buy it and eventually passed. Richemont really just has one brand people care and that’s cartier, and jewelry and watch is way less profitable than bags. I think India will be tough for LVMH, wsj has a story about it recently

This is the first time someone in the new administration (the prez) clearly said there will be privatation. Before it was all hope and speculation. Now we know for sure they want to do it. I think this is still be underreacted by the mkt, especially the preferred