sleepydragon

Yeah, i only have fnmas and fmckj. i think the main difference is liquidity. Some people buy the less liquid ones which can be cheaper sometimes.

i think FNMAS has the highest dividend rate, so potentially it could worth more under certain conditions of re-org.

i have more preferred than commons, and added to the preferred recently. This was a lottery ticket before election but now the preferred is really a 50 cents on a dollar. I find it’s hard to believe that commons will be zero. If the govt want to re-ipos the shares, it will be hard to raise capital if they zeroed the commons? Also, all the common shareholders like Ackman can also buy preferred, thus will be able to vote on restructuring. But on the other hand, i am also not sure that the potential payoffs for commons will be a lot higher than preferred, cuz this is completely decided by the kindness of the secretary at time of restructuring. by the way, Buffett has 300bn cash. Can he buy the whole thing? That will be so cool !

https://open.substack.com/pub/ruleoflawguy?r=ag2rx&utm_medium=ios

what do you think will happen if Lutnick is chosen to be the next US treasurer? It seems Scott Bessent is going to be more favorable to FNMA investors?

i sold it at $12, now it’s cheaper. This thing can be a multi bagger when they finally start selling it

Bought back BGC and LQDA

That’s why i am betting he’s going to pick Lutnick over Bessent, though betting market thinks it will be Bessent.

i have done research in the past for US indices. The days of volume is a weak predictor for returns. The total $flow is going to dominate. But that’s for US index. The easiest way to get an estimate is to go to TSX’s index website, and looked at past additions of companies of similar mktcaps, and calculate the average returns between the day before announcement till effective date.

so the $flow demand is about $1B range. It’s really not much, imo. When a 100B mktcap company is added to SP500, there’s a demand of $10B, the shares will move between 5-10%. $1b demand likely just 2%-4% movement

it’s bad for china but good for xi

Crude down 3% , OXY up almost 1%… can someone explain why is that?

if he has to get regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of shares, would be he allowed to buy the whole company? Also, if he want to buy the whole company, won’t he be buying more now?

Another Trump trade is BGC. Unfortunately I sold it too early.

Another Trump trade is M&A. The witch will be out

Talking about home ownership, lots people can’t afford to buy house and had to rent, and rent has been going up, all these happened when people make babies during covid wfh. And raising babies are expensive. The inflation is bad.

he can try to talk down the market before he starts the job,

yeah, it’s weird. Chat gpt had no ability to “think”. It merely try to synthesize the vast contents it found online. Maybe it associates geo political to crude price rising, but in the past geo political events always involves an oil supplier, thus it’s giving the wrong conclusion this time

I asked Chat GPT the same question, it says oil price will go up if China invades Taiwan,

China is hoarding a lot of commodities including crude that they are not using, and they are having a recession. Curious what do you think will happen to oil price and OXY if China invades Taiwan?

there’s also a geo political angle of this.

It seems all thesis is on the preferred. I am curious is the commons a good bet? I have both. Shall I sell my commons and put all eggs in the preferred?

there are data vendors that package TV data to quant funds who use AI/NLP to extract sentiments and trade quickly on these.

I guess the next catalyst will be who will be the next secretary of treasury? If it’s Paulson then this thing is going to explode. But I highly doubt it will be him. I met him a decade ago. He doesn’t talk much, doesn’t smile much. I ran into him walking on 5th Ave in NYC a few times instead of taking cabs or subways. I feel he’s a very resourceful and smart guy, but I don’t think he wants to be a politician.