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sleepydragon

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Everything posted by sleepydragon

  1. they still holding blackberry, that's what I care :)
  2. GS buy back shares because if an employee's income exceed a median level, 80% of the pay is deferred and paid in stocks. All the partners in GS are heavily in GS stock ownership, so they keep buying back. even in 2008.
  3. no tesla. haha. and this vote has a long bias. should allow people cast negative votes and then take the sum for each stock. you can also try long the top highest voted and short the lowest voted. but where can I vote? too late this year ..
  4. and DTV is selling below 10x pre tax earning.
  5. in my opinion, spx is essentially a momentum strategy. you are always buying yesterday's winners. it will work well as economy gets better. brk is more like a strategy that benefit from short term reversions. the big four will be able to buy more stocks if the market dips, and web can buy more stocks at low. brk's company will also have large sums in capex when other companies can't invest when market is not good. it's like a version of Graham's dollar averaging method. over the long term it will surely beat the market.
  6. i agree with you. on the other hand, they are making real progress on their device business. it's a real possibility that they will stop losing money on that business. now imagine it becomes even slightly cash flow positive, then bbry become a very interesting company with these other optionalities. how much will you value it at at that time, for a company with a good brand, a lot of cash, proven new management, growing again, etc... valuation will still be expensive. but it would have changed from a distressed company to growth company again. An example was LVS when it was at 4 dollars.
  7. Good to hear! I am long blackberry since john chen joined. I think their MDM revenue is not much yet. It's a new source of revenue - estimated at only 65m by Goldman's research (attached). According to GS's sum-of-parts (attached), it's worth $8.60. However, they didn't count the MDM and QNX. I am not sure about MDM, but I know QNX is comparable to Wind Rivers Systems' vxWorks operating systems. Intel bought Wind Rivers Systems for $889mn in 2009. They currently have 2.5+ billion cash. Sure, they got 1b+ debts. but it's only 5% interest and is not dilutive until Fairfax converts (when that happens, the stock will be a lot higher). They could sell more assets like patents or BBM. Use that money to buy another company or get more revenue. They are on track to make their device division to stop draining cash by partnering with Foxconn. Market cap is only 4.3bn. They could also be bought too -- by, say SYMC. SYMC is dying due to PC. it will be great if SYMC can break into mobile security by buying BBRY.
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