dealraker

I have bought PAX now 5 times, each successive buy at a lower price. LOL, stopped buying on the uptick now and carrying a small loss. But my kind of situation. Unrelated in business but related in stock price movement, I did the same with CWK recently and have a 50% gain in that stock after carrying a loss for a while. To add...PAX is a complete unknown of course to those like me. I spent quite the time reading their stuff and from that experience I simply considered it a decent probability. Small investment, but my experience with these type outlays is to be honest sort of crazy good. Buy and take a chill pill. The balance sheet...? Have fun with that one.

Probably my error of quick reading and responding. I always have a hard time understanding your posts (my issue) so I probably shouldn't be so spontaneous in reply. But some write as prepared text and some like me write as conversation. So things happen. Later.

My comment is 100% not directed at a guy named Jim Collins. If you've an author of a book, an article, or just posting and you obviously have got it figured out that these stocks are the ticket to paradise, well show me your super investment performance. Value Line claimed for decades their "timeliness" system led to crazy good - simply phenomenal returns and riches. One small problem, the mutual funds they created that used the timing model had awful performance.

I've now, years and years, later still not figured out this. It is simply factual, not about me. Here goes: I repeatedly read things such as this, you know...the great companies and that you must own them and above all chant it up while doing so (while owning them). In recent years the X (Twitter) posts, you know where those chanting up the hero stocks as if there's a "connection" to these managers via owning the big recent performers. Yet over and over and over and over again I spend some effort - and it often takes the quite the effort - to find out the actual returns such individuals and institutions get via their ownership (of the great companies). Except for a few my returns exceed these publishing experts and often by a big margin. All while I own little of the published great companies whatsoever. And then there's a an investor right here on COBF who I follow and...(well...it is the same story). A fisherman walks in to the tackle shop. He immediately sees and is star struck by a lure with 8 hooks and 8 colors. He asks the clerk, "Sir...does this thing actually catch fish?" The clerk replies, "Mr. I don't sell to fish." Bill Ackman just bought Brookfield. About a year and a few days ago we here discussed and many bought Brookfield. We were up 80% or more by the time Bill came. The company...and the inevitable story publisher (Bill will do what Bill does)..same old story.

Yea roundball I just heard that a few 38 year old NBA players had scored 30 just one time while LJ is already over 30 times headed to 100. LOL.

Viking I've been part of a few different forums and groups over the decades in my journey of being interested in and owning things like - and maybe expecially Fairfax given it has now (price wise) roared back to life. The nice thing about your leadership of this thread is that it isn't like "oh...this is my idea and never before did anyone ever..." and so forth. You did lots of work and you just put it out while stating your case. For a long time I was a loner-owner, nowhere could I find others to share discussion about Fairfax. It is hard to relay without seemingly projecting some arrogance as to how much I have enjoyed the experience of long term investing - again in things outliers like Fairfax that most typical investment types would never feel good sticking with or making the gap to grasp how it works. I'm a tad different than you as how I go about the insurance business. I basically choose managements that I think are the Labron James' of the business, better and more able to keep outperforming, and I roll right on through the bad periods. Interestingly, and I know you are fully aware, a few of Berkshire's insurance areas are having a tough go of it, Geico being left miles behind Progressive... So the story of Fairfax is one where I felt it inevitable of the comeback. As usual, as a long term owner, I'm quite happy with Fairfax's valuation whether high or low as to our intrinsic model. There's always choices that can be made based on the price-to-value. I don't expect full or over-valuation to come often, and if it does it will be very brief. Have a good day.

Today my multiple old age health issues sort of collaborated such that I sat on the sofa watching CNBC for a while. Yesterday I rode 20 miles on the mountain bike so I guess I over-did it. Anyway, other than Jeffrey Gundlach I'm thinking this is about the most euphoric I've seen the guests and commentators for the last 20-some years. Not sure how many times I heard "this is a time when valuation doesn't count" - but it was often.

It seems then that Jeffrey Gundlach is also out-of-the actual reality as too his thinking. Interesting.

My guess is Warren Buffett is reasonably certain something is going to give- that staying in short term credit will do as well as business/stocks. My worthless view is that more near term than long term: My guess is that rates do rise and that could be significant, even temporarily violently higher in a bond related panic. 2nd guess, particularly if Trump is leading, is that US debt is at least threatened to be (and likely to be) restructured. So if I were an investor I'd be leery of any longer term US debt with a decent interest rate. As far as balancing tax rev vs. spending? Democrats are pretty much accurately understood ---- and what's not widely understood is that Republicans are worse than Democrats, often far worse.

Of course. No surprises here. Some sound articles in my railroad publications as to overall business models and how the railroads can gain market share along with improving their status in the minds of customers. Given some amount of decent relationships the RR's should thrive soon.

The sell-off today in the railroads, led by the first to report CSX, is precisely what ole dealraker has been hammering home for several years now. The low-lower-lowest OR isn't a longevity profit model, it has run 90% if not more of its potential. Back a few years ago I debated with the Norfolk crowd, the $300 price of the stock was cheap they said. OR ratio? Oh it was the obsession. "Mine's better than yours" was the theme, like 5th graders in the bathroom trading baseball cards, envy of "who's better" filled the room. The rails gotta be thinking full blown business model to thrive now. Simply preventing employees from taking time off for a funeral ain't gunna make the CEO's next quarter like it once did. Life is great...if you can stand it.

+1 I think he is a master talent at getting from point A to point B. It would be grand for America if he wasn't so needy of media attention.

+1

Plus - plus with a glass of wine effect evidently.

÷1

Agree. Got involved locally beginning in 1994 and say unequivicolly the most task related rewarding part of my life.

I'll close my posts here by simply stating that there is a stunning connection of who is the Richest with who is the dominant genius. Oh these stock prices do have their say! That fossil Buffett with his outdated words, something about mental and emotional stability. How silly is that, we all want political and societal eruption these days...(just dont cut my benefits or guv revs and tax credits).

Of course I'm being a tad facetious here guys, but I've witnessed so many of this same discussion so many times about so many men... I can't help but chat it up some. Time after time if you and I live a while there will be many more. People forget, they are simply not capable of meaningful comparison (I'm not either), we just live in the moment. Opinions will be endless.

Nah, Jobs was the real thing.

Above all it is blisteringly clear to me, whether tech, innovation, politics...it simply does not matter. But we are absorbed by the cult of personalities and abrasive always gains followers best. The personal/interactive nature of distancing connections via social media has pole vaulted this theme. Add to this the effect of a successfully promoted, thus years ahead of itself stock price and you have something very easy to predict, all 7 of Cialdini's persuasions at work in lollapalooza style...a real life authority hero.

Could absolute not disagree more intensely. Musk is in the moment...next guy will be even more so.

Elon's gunslinger "disruptive" personality is hugely attractive to many and magnifies his presence everywhere. Over the years though all this is absolutely forgotten or never even known as the next round of achievers and/or those needing/succeeding at gaining attention blanket the last bunch. Elon's thus far achievements will seem rediculously minimal.

Somebody is in process of leapfrogging both these guys. We just don't know it yet.

Probably the most over-rated entrepreneur. Also more groundbreaking is his skills of getting US guv funding and tax credits.

The one metric OR stopped providing returns for shareholders long ago. Berk's use of capital may or may not make a difference, time will tell. The game though is well past cutting employees, cutting lines, cutting cap ex, cutting maintenance,, cutting yards, and using debt for buybacks. The math on minimal sales growth gets downright exciting from here.