dealraker

Interestingly as to all brokers but in this case particularly AJG, and while I do not use Wells as my allocating tool (I am well over 50% insurance brokers for decades) of brokers their research has been dead right for 15 plus years... They have what is by far the largest upside ever near term in their expectations of AJG's stock performance, over 50% from today's quote. Just relaying what I read. I'd don't think I've ever seen them with a figure over 30% and that's been 1 or 2 times in the last 15 years. I think there is widespread fear of insurance rates of all types and sectors collapsing. AJG management does not see that coming.

From listening to AJG management there is fear of rates diving which overall they are not seeing. AJG apparently became aware of some seasonal revenue at Assured that reduced earnings. My guess while the merger will be successful this isn't the last surprise in the basket. Management sounded more positive than ever. Down the road we go. Insurance brokerage is a shockingly great business.

I have 100 times my inherited 1975 basis in KO and PEP. Wanna pay my tax?

Bought more Aon yesterday, I thought I had another day to buy before earnings. Earnings out and they look quite good. But last quarter they were solid too and the stock sold off heavily. We will see.

I am 71 and that's old as to investing insight. Regardless of what other say, my view is that while it is unique to the individual there is a point where you are no longer competitive or as interested/motivated as to where you once were. I am way into this phase. If I were younger I'm quite sure my investments would be different.

OK, I see where you are. So let me sling out something. So things I own a lot of, and "a lot" means that at whatever percentage of my portfolio they dominate the portfolio. AJG BRKA Fairfax Meta Google Bro Aon Marsh McLennan Pepsi Coke Mondelez Hershey Lowe's Norfolk Southern CSX UNP Canadian National Canadian Pacific Kansas City Intercontinental Exchange CME Group Nasdaq Amrize Martin Marietta Vulcan St. Joe Republic Services Waste Management Right off hand that's my list and there's probably a couple not on there. This would be 99% of my publicly traded stuff.

Junior dividends are so far from my scope of importance that they register a giant minus. I am interested in business, NOT stock prices nor dividends or much of anything of that sort. And I have even less interested in buying/selling other than in one small account where I do try to amuse myself. I'm not a Parsad, I never load up on a few stocks. That's his skill, not mine...and he is exceptional. I buy businesses and over time some do very well and I do not sell them if the business is a good one. The best investor trait of all is to know who you are and what you can do or tolerate, and even better to know who you aren't. The slogan, "When you look in the mirror do you see Warren Buffett?" That's the one for me.

Hektor you simply think far-far-far differently than I do! I've spent the last 40 years of my 50 buying what I think are the best businesses when they've sold for a 5% earnings yield. We have a market!

I have owned AJG, BRO, MMC, and AON since 1994. Brokers are not far from 50% of my portfolio. My two business partners and I merged with AJG in 1994. I've bought WTW a few times in the last few years and RYAN recently. I also have a bit of BWIN (ouch LOL!).

AJG is gong to rock. Choose what amount you are comfortable owning and hold it.

I'd say in general somewhere over 5% at today's prices on average. That's free cash flow multiples too which is of course relatively high compared to the market. Growth? Growth is of course slower and particularly the more recent past.

No criticism you here dwy000...just sorta saying I'd probably not call this a "fire sale" as in 2015 or so for instance AJG fell to 15 times earnings on the standard 'rate' concerns. But given the sustainability these brokers have produced now for some decades I would call the stocks falling 20-30% highly likely to be a decent time to buy. One of the things that's a problem with someone (like me in this case) who is vastly overweighted with broker stocks is that I just kind of mess around when the stocks fall. I didn't buy more AJG in 2015 but strongly recommended to others to buy it. This time I've bought some the brokers today including AON and AJG. AON's a bit below where I bought it a few months ago as is WTW. Wells has only slightly, ever so slightly, lowered BRO's earnings predictions through 2027. Yet they've lowered their expectations quite a bit stating their belief that BRO will struggle with organic more that the others. But thus far the settings seems far away from desperate or anything of the sort. I think we all knew this was coming and honestly glad that it is in process. What will the stocks do? Crowd behavior! That's what!

We have excitement in the broker industry today!

My niece works for Booz and says the stress is intense presently but that these earnings were expected by many...and expected to get worse before improving. I have no skin in the game but did buy her 100 shares a few years back at $26 when she began there.

Interesting: https://insuranceasianews.com/blackstone-acquires-majority-stake-in-indias-ace-insurance-brokers/

Yes that didn't make sense at all. I'll try to reword it.

Over many years I've found that excellent financial writers and outstanding investing are two circles that don't overlap much. Brooklyn is one of the few in both circles.

Interesting news continues, this with BRO: What happened: This morning, in a bit of a surprising announcement BRO announced that Steve Hearn (its COO) would be taking over as President of Retail and that Barrett Brown (brother of the CEO Powell Brown and son of its Chairman Hyatt Brown) was taking a personal leave of absence (effective 10/17). Given how close this is to earnings, combined with the disappointing retail results over the past 12 months we view this as a negative data point.

For years there were reports similar to this as to AJG and their clean coal investments. Like this report on BWIN I did not do a mental shortcut and dismiss those analysts. Before I could determine their right or wrong on AJF the earnings would go substantially up. I've aged such that I am more likely to trust others thoughts and findings here on COBF, that is rather than my own thinking.

LOL I've bought a small amount of Baldwin at both $27-28 and at a tad below $24. Might get Interesting, I never just dismiss a report like this one. I've written them myself.

It's the listed height...minus at least an inch (on most VIP's). So 5' 10" is probably 5' 8 1/2".

The weakness in the brokers is long overdue! Hopefully over time it proves a wise buying time. Seems to be underwriters too. Bought AON yesterday. Traveling and not paying nuch attention.

The good news on this debate is simply and clearly that Parsad won. For well over a decade Cubs and Greg infiltrated and dominated all of COBF with their politics. Now only the optional politics thread. What a nice thing that is!

I'm talking about the 1970's when I say well known.

Buffett was VERY well known by Wall Street much earlier than you may realize. I would add to this stating that people and the financial news were strongly interested in what Buffett - actually Berkshire - bought in the markets but much less interested in buying Berkshire stock.