dealraker

gfp I follow Wells Fargo on the brokers because they do a good job covering them in my view --- for a long time now. Their view for several years now is that AJ Gallagher is both likely the better perfoming business and stock. I'll try to gain access to some Wells (I just looked and couldn't find their last summary) stuff and pass it along. Brown, I think, bought some UK brokers and had nice revenue growth but expenses were far higher than expected and I think that's was the stock price problem. But again not certain but I think I read that at the time. I once was asked by my bro-in-law to "manage" some of his money. I just put 100% of it in Brown and Brown (it was Poe and Brown then) because the stock was selling at 12 times free cash flow and growing earnings at 15% a year. Oh my...wish those days would return! Wells follows: AJ Gallagher Aon Marsh McLennan Brown and Brown Willis Towers Watson BRP Ryan Specialty Goosehead I've owned Gallagher for 28 years and Aon, Marsh, Willis (the predecessor got me there), and Brown for 25 years. Just bought BRP when the price plummeted for some reason down around $15. Other than what Wells reports I know nothing about them. I know nothing about Goosehead except the stock price which is fascinating. For your humor BB&T, now Truist, has a insurance broker sub best known for paying dearly for acquisions. There are still many large private insurance brokers including the one Prem and Fairfax once owned 40% of called Hub International. I'll never forgive Prem for selling this business (being seriously silly saying this) as I'll bet its performance since he sold it (and I had to give up my shares) has easily been 18% annual returns. DAMN! But Hub was constantly selling for less than ten times earnings back then when Fairfax owned so much of it....all while growing 15% a year. The "old" days were fine wine. I'll look for the Wells stuff and post some things when I can find them.

Of course it is a dying industry...I'm guessing Mr. Buffett knows well. But contrary to popular belief maybe, just maybe, the electric car would have progressed without psycho man and that industry too will return to the norm whatever that may be. Tobacco headwinds and all the rest...and even the eyeball industry headwind which includes basically every single stock obsessed about in the world while one or so businesses have a market cap that mandates perfection of moat defense. Limits everywhere along with expertise of prediction. Me? I just play the game in, as I've said, the dumbed down mode. "Berkshire" is on this board's name and there's somewhat of a connection, a rather large one, to this industry.

When? My view still and I've used it before...but I'm a dumbed down model guy while most aren't: S&P 500 WEIGHT: Structural Energy upcycles typically end when Energy’s S&P weighting is in the low-to-mid teens. Currently, Energy has merely rallied to just over 5% of the S&P 500 from its 2% October 2020 low. While a lot depends on the outlook for other sectors, energy tends to "punch its earnings weight" in the S&P 500 arguing for a 10%+ S&P market cap weighting today. RUSSEL GROWTH WEIGHT: Structural Energy upcycles end when Energy’s Russell Growth weight is noticeable, which I might characterize as over 10%. Currently, energy is just 2% of Russell Growth, up modestly from the circa 1% it was for much of the 2016-2021 period. To be clear, traditional energy is not a growth sector. Still, during the up portion of the structural cycle, it has historically reached a 10%+ weighting in the Russell Growth Index.

Look...I'm just trying to come up with a more selective accounting model to value BAM. Plan value is just around the corner if I succeed. I think I'll name it AAFFO or Aspirational Adjusted Funds From Operations.

I'm out and about here in central NC kind of relentlessly and I simply can not fathom how the economy here could be any better than it is. Blame somebody or paise them...or say it is random...but things are thriving here. Our builders supply and millwork haven't yet felt any downturn.

Being in the observation but no action bunch I find great enjoyment in forecasting...but of course doing nothing about it.

My worthless guess is that the investors are one glance away from stomping the panic button if and when something triggers fear of lower stock prices that last a while. Recession gets wings then.

I bought BX not too long ago (couple of years) and instantly got this parabolic profit. Wrong account though - taxable - becasue I would have done something very rare for me and that's gleefully SELL. Bizarre upside valuation that had zero basis of being what it was.

It seems most invesment houses are out now with recession in early 23 then rebound. Doesn't mean they don't have it right, but the trend for that prediction is growing it seems.

Fantastic thread. I just read and enjoy.

Old dealrakers view: Enlessly collecting macro information keeps investors from thinking about anything worthwhile, thus not thinking at all Self funding businesses with moats are just as prevalent today as they always have been Macro collection calls you to action that is not good for investing success Being vague and unsure macro wise is far better than being intense and certain All weath in capitalism is the direct ownership of businesses that take in X and spurt out X plus Limiting portfolio ups and downs with "stuff" (that costs money) is harmful to long term results As you obsess on one thing you are missing something far more important screaming at you While endlessly checking for greener grass the diamonds are most often under your feet Relax...you'll likely get old and not remember any of the intense feelings you have today Read what others post and plug it into all your life's experiences, you will see and get to know the person in your mirror

Precisely what you'd expect - 4 apiece: https://prospect.org/power/congressmembers-tried-to-stop-secs-inquiry-into-ftx/

Whoops! Forgot to mention I did buy some JOE. I think they may just finally-finally-finally pull it off with on-going revenue and such that there's something left over for shareholders. In any event, now I get to chat and rant with Greg on JOE!

I am aware of anything Viking.

Based on energy market cap to total market cap three years ago I tied on the blindfold and threw darts for a while. Got a whopping 5% in the game before I stalled out --- that's of course appreciated to more than that now. While not buying now I do enjoy some back and forth on the energy/oil/gas world. Best performers for me are OXY and First Solar.

These posts Viking...something worthwhile.

Hey man, we speak in the digital and it is the cool-cool new thing. Problem is our price eventually is subject to firms assets vs liabities and such whatnot, thus we fail analog- that concept none of us know or care about.

I completely agree with what Viking is writing and that it should be considered as to some investing decisions.

I'll add one thing that is so relevant to all ponzi's - from my local scene and all should take this in. A huge number of people locally blame the government for shutting down Zeeks. They chant in union that all was fine and that the gov is to blame for their losses. This grievance theme people, grievance as to "the guv", is the psychological world of communties like mine. If you aren't aware of that then you do not know middle class America today. The small minority of us that do not think this way? Well, we just watch and keep our views amoung us only. Bitcoin is very popular among people with minimal investments and literally no concept of long term investing in the markets.

The right-hand man for Zeek Rewards's billion dollar pyramid scheme fouder Paul Burks was guy named Cory. Zeek was headquartered directly across the street from our 130 year old family owned builders supply business (see link below). Cory leads the Tuesday night crypto meeting at the two local (hugely successful pubs) in my town. These pubs are very large and have elaborate and well-designed outdoor areas. The crypto gathering is so large that the pub owners made them meet in the outdoor area on Tuesday's. So in 2016 once a month this massive gathering required many to park (and there is a large parking area) a quarter mile away. My wife and I play trivia on Tuesday's here and my investment club also meets on Tuesday. We held one of our club meetings at the crypto meeting because we thought the older memebers of the club would get their old age restricted/limited world rocked a tad...and they did, they absolutely loved it! Cory leads the meetings. Can't wait to see if the next meeting is even larger than last months. By the way rumor is that Cory has shut down his crypto mining business and gone back to work in the sign business he sold (and signed a non-compete agreement). He'd invested $150k in it just last year and told me the energy bill had hit $1000 a month at one point. Before I post the link below...the Zeek thing was so big locally that our school system had to shut down for a day while the Superintendent and her crew lectured principal's/staff in attempts to withdraw them from their all day Zeek addictions. Our trivia cohorts state that the faculty meetings were Zeek promotions...profits were to be made! The link: https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdnc/pr/former-zeekrewards-ceo-convicted-federal-charges-operating-900-million-internet-ponzi

I enjoy your over-the-top beyond extreme bias' Greg, they are as plain and simple...and blazingly obvious... as anything I've ever seen, but dead genuine. Not being facetious either when I write that. Interesting that you post often on the cyrpto site where to me there's a huge attempt to playtime visionaries as to things so untouchably bizarre that there's no human capable of predicting any of it. Why? Because you are such a nuts and bolts type, basic to the bone. It is an interesting intersection of people to say the least. Life is great...if you can stand it.

If the word blame is brought up then the world's greatest piece of worthless garbage named Trump and his near 5,000 lawsuits must be proclaimed now and forevermore the champion of all time. The man is the most pathetic human being who has ever walked the face of the earth.

Agree Spek 100%! But Jerry, the oldest of 5 (Jerry 80; Steve 75; me 68; Ted 55; Mark 44) made the decision and he was excited...and we need some positive family excitement amonst all the endless health problems now as you would expect. Jerry also, some 45 years ago, was the leader of selling all but one of the builders supply businesses to buy one millwork business - to sell all the commercial and residential real estate - to go into the stock market. My guess is within the 5 families now that's a huge addition to total net worth- that simply came with passive observation and little effort and a resulting awareness that literally is somewhat overwhelming. So it is, life is great...if you can stand it. We shall see where it goes and enjoy the conversations in the process. By the way, to make sense of this, our parents all died in the 1960's and 70's. Financially we had to grow up fast. Plus there was this 2 million dollar tax penalty...and we didn't have 2 million to pay it!

Well the boys met and while the initial discussion was that right now anything associated with Asia is priced well but "we don't like investing directly" there. The theme abruptly (LOL) with a few glasses of wine or bottle of beer. EEM, yep the larger fee thing, is now the name of the game. Probably one of 10 times such a short period of owning something for us, but we sold our Hope with about a 10% gain. These decisions are made on the porch of Workman Road, a 200 year old house on hundreds of acres. We have a 7 foot tall painted wood carving Big Foot, with a bald hind end, on the porch along with all kinds of other wood carvings such as coyote, fox, racoon, and Bobcat. A totem pole of eastern red cedar (juniper) is in view too. Workman is the name of the family who built the place and farmed it along with the road it is on. Mention all this because these investments are more boy-bonding than serious. But over time they've worked satisfactorily. We are "emerging" now.

Elaborate complex rationalizing does seem to be popular with Bitcoin promoters. I am literally unable to stay attentive to the presentations. Much prefer my high school friend, he too was a high IQ lover of disruption. Riding with him in the mountains in his Jeep CJ5 in 1972 going uphill on a curvy two lane road he passed three 18 wheelers staying in the wrong lane for some time. He looked over and said, "Left lane's just as flat as the right." That made perfectly good sense to me.