Gamecock-YT

A little too touristy for my taste. Crowded. Traffic was really bad and takes a long time to get anywhere. Locals who weren't working at a place of business weren't exactly friendly. Tough to get around if you didn't have your own transportation. Probably compare it to visiting Phuket but Hindus instead of Muslims as the local populace.

Wasn't really a fan of Bali. Stayed in Nusa Dua, Sanur, Kuta, and Ubud. Read that Canggu/Seminyak had been taken over by instagram influencers/digital nomads so didn't bother. I think if I were to go back I'd try and get more north than Ubud or even just go across to Lombok/Gili Islands. Have some gado gado for me.

is howard marks anything more than a talking head these days?

Also ever since I've read the book, I always try and note article I find that make a point of identifying where we are in the capital cycle, just came across this article on Maersk: https://www.ft.com/content/1908b06c-0a38-4f5d-81f8-05b42baff81e I also try to capture and save the euphoria articles so went to see if I had any for shipping, sure enough from August 2021: https://www.ft.com/content/6145121c-7069-4ca5-bd8f-429461617d37 The article also links to a Maersk article which mentioned: "Other container shipping companies have begun ordering new vessels again, hoping for the current surge in demand to continue."

I want to say there's a PDF version of Capital Account floating around on the internet, though to be honest I got a lot more out of Capital Returns than I did Capital Account.

Where I worked we were always told not to put something in the forecast unless we were absolutely sure it would happen because you would always have to speak to it once you put it in. And even then you forecast conservatively so you'd discount the revenue based on how certain you were. But our internal forecasts would go out 2-2.5 years into the future and they would be updated quarterly: 0+12, 4+8, 7+5, (9+3 sometimes), and 10+2. (Months of actuals) + (Months of forecast). We did have pretty good visibility into M&A, IPO timelines and what we expected the P&L impact to be, but you always wanted to overdeliver your forecast instead of underdelivering.

Goosing the Haslam's EBIT number

these snowball derivatives kind of sound a bit like portfolio insurance from the 80s.

might lend more evidence that citi is the missing BRK stock https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-20/warren-buffett-tells-citi-ceo-to-continue-overhaul-reuters-says?srnd=markets-vp

Also related to MNPI, if you ever don't want to disclose to people what you are working on at a company just tell them a part of it involves MNPI and you'll scare them away

noted eastern european expert Howard Buffett

as a plane nerd I think this is lufthansa business class. Most likely the 747-800 flying EZE-FRA.

We buy things we don't need with money we don't have to impress people we don't like

it's a good book, a little wordy but will inevitably show that most of these bubbles rhyme

Depends the time of year you are visiting, Sakura in the spring and the leaves changing in the fall can be itineraries all on their own. I would also suggest a day trip or overnight stay in Nara if you are in the area, seeing the deer all around is kind of neat and good transportation links to get around town. If you are a car person, Toyota has a great car museum not too far from Nagoya station. Also, a direct train runs from Osaka/Kyoto to Kanazawa, which will be much less crowded than Kyoto but still has a lot of historical places and a great market. Just watch out for the weather, it's the seattle of japan. That said, Kyoto: Bamboo forest (arashiyama) Fushimi Inari (go really early or late in the day), combine with Tofuku-ji temple when down in that area Imperial palace Golden temple is kind of out of the way and not really anything else there but you have to go if you haven't been Nishiki market then you have the walking path on the east side of the city to hit a bunch of temples (kiyomizudera, kodaiji, shorenin temple) eikando temple and higashiyama temple more to the northeast. Best way to get around is bus, sadly the public buses can get really crowded. There's a tourist big red bus that might be worth checking out, and a time saver too. i haven't used it but have seen it around town at some spots. Maybe because I ate there last night but Yamachan for Japanese chicken wings is a place i always go while in the country. they are utterly addiction. Osaka the prime territory is Dotonbori, plenty of takoyaki places around to get a bite to eat, walk up and down the canal and the bridges, take the photo of the famous glico man. also have to try osaka Okonomiyaki, a japanese cabbage pancake. it's fantastic.

I bet Billy lives in a glass house too

Chiang Mai is lovely, I'm actually heading there next week, just have to hit the sweet spot between the end of the rain season and the start of burning season. Usually mid November - middle of February. I've seen very little Russians in my ~4 months of living there, actually more Ukrainians I've came across. But primarily American and Canadian expats with a decent bit of South Korean tourists recently. It seems every nationality has their little pocket they frequent. Russians and eastern europeans in phuket and the beaches down south, Scandinavians in Hua Hin, Japanese in Bangkok (2nd largest diaspora in the world behind Los Angeles), German speakers in Pattaya. As mentioned above the Thai government has been desperate trying to court the Chinese tourists back to the country. To the point now there's no visa requirement. Same for Indians. Russians now get 90 days visa free. Vietnam also recently allowed 90 days on a tourist visa, will be interesting to see if Thailand starts losing people to there. I'm planning a long trip there after my Thai visa expires.

Was this your first time at these places? I've previously done the München to Budapest trip in December trip as well. Was cool going ice skating in Wien at the outdoor rink they have set up next to the Christmas market in town. Budapest did have excellent food but it was absolutely freezing. Curious why you didn't like Strasbourg? The alsace has a unique blend of cultures I really liked. Plus top notch tarte flambee and choucroute. I spent a decent chunk of time in Köln this summer, and really enjoyed it. Would encourage you to visit these places again in the warmer months and it's a totally different experience. Hiking around Salzburg is excellent as well.

Been in Tokyo since New Years Eve, between earthquakes, tsunamis, and plane collisions, I fully expect Godzilla to make an appearance by the weekend.

0.40%, You guys knocked it out of the park, this is probably the most i've underperformed the S&P since I started. Most my activity was in the bond market waiting for the drawdown that never came. Activity-wise sold out of MO at cost from around the pandemic and GENGF after the dividend cut. Only purchases came in December when WTI got below $70, bought a slug of GENGF back. "Big" winners: Ibonds, MO dividend Big loser: LBRDK 2023: 0.40% 2022: -3.75% 2021: 19.9% 2020: 12.0% 2019: 33.0% 2018: -15.5% 2017: 35.0% 2016: 17.3%

Must be getting close to something breaking then.

I've seen them on my travels in Australia and Thailand, even a truck stop in the UK. Though I don't see many people queuing up to buy them. As someone from the southern US, I've obviously grew up on them. The secret is to get them when they are hot, usually in the evenings. Barring that, reheat them for a couple of seconds in the microwave.

Wonder what the price of the autographed first edition has appreciated in price the past month?