John Hjorth

Spekulatius, I just noted, that this topic is developing in the investment ideas forum. To me, it's just not the right place, as I see things. We already have topics in the investment ideas forum for Lloyds and Barclays, to discuss these investments, separately. At least to me, they are both worth time and effort to study and to discuss from an investment perspective & angle. I have no position in any of them as of right now, but I'm actually absolutely hell bent to study them, going forward, short term, to learn something. [said: Untill I [again!] get distracted by the next European gem trading at a P/E at 30 [or perhaps above!], that I study [please read: LVMH], instead of just moving on!]. I have no position on Danske Bank A/S - but I happen to have an opinion on that, from an investment angle. I'm just not the right guy to open the topic here on CoBF, because I'm bearish [to some extreme extent] to the bank's exposure to Danish farming. With regard to Svenska Handelsbanken AB, I would feel inclined to open a separate topic about it, if you want, in the investment ideas forum. Actually, right now I hold it three ways: 1. Directly, long term, 2. Indirectly, via holding a position in Industrivärden AB, long term, [about 21 percent of Industrivärden AB equity is this stock]. 3. Indirectly, via holding L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB long term, [about 5.8% of L.E. Lundberg equity is this stock, and at the same time L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB is holding 18.9 percent of Industrivärden AB]. - - - o 0 o - - - I hold Svenska Handelsbanken AB [directly] primarily in tax deferred accounts. The Swedish dividend withholding tax that I'm subject to, is 15 percent, not 30. [in Danish tax deferred accounts, I get credit for 15 percent dividend taxes paid abroad in Danish PAL-tax, based on marked to market evaluation on each separate account, at the moment at 15.3 percent.]

Thank you for starting this topic, Spekulatius, I'm almost getting carried away, really not knowing where to start, or to end. [ : - ) ] So I'll just start here with your question about Danske Bank A/S, and the mortgage lending activities within the Danske Bank Group. [To be totally honest, I'm pretty amazed about how you're able to - within most likely limited time - to get to the crucial points - even while I know for a fact that you're a CoBF member with a lot of investing experience.]. The place to start seems to me to be on Wikipedia: Mortgage industry of Denmark. I have over the years read many places, that this system is somehow world wide considered unique. As far as I know, there has never been a default on a Danish mortgage bond. The market for Danish mortgage bonds is - relatively speaking - large, liquid and fairly efficient. All mortgages are with recourse to the debtor. [Don't even think that that you can put your home in a real estate company owned by yourself and with you as the only tennant, unless you're very rich - or you'll be asked for personal guarantee.] There are as far as I know no exeptions for this term. The bonds are non-callable, unless in case of default. [None so far.] The mortgage lending activities within the Danske Bank Group takes place in the wholly owned subsidiary called "Realkredit Danmark A/S". [Can best be translated to "Mortgage Denmark A/S".] You find the financials for Realkredit Danmark A/S here. So, the short answer here to your question is: The leverage within the Danske Bank Group related mortgage lending is non-callable, which makes it sticky. [in the meaning, if you're long Danish mortgage bonds, and want out for whatever reason, your only option is to sell in the market - There is no way to call them.] [Pretty simplified explanation here.]

A couple of months ago I did a short write up in a post about how to use the search feature here on CoBF efficiently. You can read it here. A belated welcome to you, Saleen!

Thank you for the advice, Vinod, I'll find that research paper and post a link to it here. I think I need to read the book first and then read the research paper afterwards, to get the right understanding of the technique. And thank you also for the advice of reading "The Four Pillars of Investing". [i haven't read that yet.]

A couple of days ago I ordered this book, available at Amazon here. [Personally, I ordered the book at saxo.com, to save a bit money on p&p and perhaps also a bit import VAT.] Somehow, I consider it a flaw in my selfeducational journey into investing, that I haven't read this book before. I think I should have read it about 6 years ago. So please consider me absolutely unopinionated on the matter and concept. There are quite some sceptical comments about the concept and method in the customer reviews on Amazon. I guess I'm just curious here, and wan't to learn about it. Perhaps I'm even fooling myself, trying desperate to find a way to excuse myself for building a modest position in LVMH over time, thereby in reality grabbing for straws.

Bumping! [Actually, not only & totally based on the book as such [the book is good - really awesome!], but more like a total judgement of what I'm provided for free here.] [Please read: Twitter.] Thank you!

Are busses in LA running around the clock? - I'm just asking here. 385 miles/day reads like a lot.

It actually reads a bit concerning, Munger_Disciple, Somehow, tehnical specifications - here understood as "promises" to the BYD client, I suppose must the key here. I suppose everybody knows that there are a lot steep streets in Los Angeles. Isen't what matter actual range [while driving the busses in LA] compared to what a LA bus is actually driving per day? If the existing battery capacity isen't sufficient, isen't it just a matter adding more battery blocks under the floor of the bus, untill the [darn] thing actually can deliver as expected for that particular driving environment? [i'm not an engineer.]

Thank you, cubsfan.

Well said. Semper sounded like the barber talking down the index. Those 50 pages I skipped right past to the 50 on Berkshire. To me, 50 pages of lucid details on Berkshire is alright if seen in the backdrop of MV being marked down relative to IV for year after year. He’s shouting, I can understand, so can others around here. All that said, my rationale for preferring Semper versus Tilson is that T sounds awfully like a thesis based on price. Not entirely but substantially so. Thank you for polite, mild and well reasoned push back. I had no idea that Mr. Tilson's work on Berkshire had this impact on several CoBF members holding Berkshire for the long term. Somehow, I feel embarrassed right now. Going forward, I'll try to be more humble.

I read some WFC bashing a few days ago: It is worth it. Not if you get an STD and that's what this specific lady has lol It's not nice to talk this way about a Lady, especially not when the Lady is of a certain age. Please remember, this Lady was born in 1852. To me, WFC is actually very shareholder friendly. Not many companies provide you with the feature of getting your name included in the company name instantly, when you buy the stock. [Ref. "& Co."]. The same when you sell the stock - You get excluded from the name of the company instantly. - - - o 0 o - - - Perhaps this could be an idea for a shareholder proposal at the next AGM in BH: Name change from "Biglari Holdings" to "Biglari & Co. Holdings". I think it would be fun to read about Mr. Biglari's reaction to that at the AGM on here.

Anything in-particular from this year's presentation? The stock seems a bit expensive to me here. I wouldn't say anything in particular. I was just reminded what a well run company this is, with very shareholder-oriented management and good insurance and investment teams. I have held off buying because the stock did seem fairly priced to perhaps a bit overpriced. But I think they are a long term compounder that I am happy to hold for a long long time, most likely the rest of my life. And if they continue to compound decently, 20 - 30 years from now my entry point won't matter that much. I didn't want this stock to be like a Berkshire or a Walmart where you are waiting for it to get cheap and end up waiting a very long time and never buying. Thank you for sharing your experience here, Jeff. It's a comforting read. It must now be about 5 years since I bought MKL for the first time. The Markel people are so humble and focused on doing their own stuff, their way. It's so easy to hold - I have never had a negative surprise with it so far, and it's just doing fine. And yes, the entry point does not matter that much real long term.

Added [seriously] to BAC, C & JPM within the last two days.

For my part: Yes, it's a miss. +1 Seen in the backdrop of Semper Augustus’s seminal work, this is weak. To me, it's so true, what longinvestor is posting here. If you're interested in Berkshire, the Semper Augustus letters should catch your attention. [i have posted about them recently. - The B trading at around ~200, while intrisic value is estimated in the Semper Augustus Letters to be around ~250 for the B.]

For my part: Yes, it's a miss.

I'm feeling frustrated, desperately trying to buy some BA* today, - to no avail. Searched for the ticker ROSDD, also to no avail ... [ : - / ] [ROSDD <- "Row of serious down days".]

Windpower Monthly [May 9th 2018]: AWEA 2018: MidAmerican 'hustling' ahead of PTC phase-out. EnergiWatch, by Ritzau Finans [May 15th 2018]: Vestas key customer sees potential opportunities with only 60 percent PTC.

Well said, Liberty & tom, I know for a fact [expressed directly in writing], that this company is just too boring for some fellow board members, while others, even very experienced investors here on CoBF like to have their a**es dragged by this behemoth. [ : - ) ]

Aren't there already self driving trains around the world? The Copenhagen metro, partly inaugurated in 2014 - still not fully completed - but since then at least connecting Malmö [sweden], Copenhagen Airport and Copenhagen Central Rail Station is running by use of driverless trains. It feels like you're some kind of residue slag on a conveyor belt, while the reality most likely is more that you're in a drone train.

Awesome Rishi, Thank you for sharing.

I agree with cubsfan here, AZCactus, Some numbers for the last ten years: Year - Cash YE [incl. T-Bills] - Equity YE: 2007 - 44,329 - 120,733 2008 - 25,539 - 109,267 2009 - 30,558 - 135,785 2010 - 38,227 - 162,934 2011 - 37,299 - 164,850 2012 - 46,992 - 187,647 2013 - 48,186 - 221,890 2014 - 60,033 - 240,170 2015 - 67,161 - 255,550 2016 - 86,370 - 282,070 2017 - 115,954 - 348,296 [2017 tax cut effect [net] +28,200] Average shares outstanding YE2007 : 1,545,751 [A eq.] Average shares outstanding YE2017 : 1,644,615 [A eq.] I will call the equity progress outstanding, based on cash levels [including T-Bills] held during that period, even taking the tax cut effect into consideration. - - - o 0 o - - - Christopher Bloomstran from Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC has estimated of YE2017 intrisic value of Berskhire at about 250 for the B-share in February 2018. [There are three client letters from him during the last three years partly about valuation of Berkshire, that are worth your time and attention.] Based on this valuation alone, getting Berkshire today around 200 for the B provides a discount to intrinsic value of 20 percent. We have seen other fellow board members buying recently around 190, making it even better. It's not a steal, but to me it may be considered a good deal in this market environment, ref. cubsfan's post above. - - - o 0 o - - - Furthermore, personally, I think Mr. Bloomstran's Berkshire valuation is conservative - not extremely conservative, though - but to some extent. First, it's about valuation of insurance float. Our fellow board member rb did a plendid post about it last year and did some numbers gymnastics, thereby sharing his thoughts about it. You find rb's post here. Please take a close look at the formula provided by rb, especially with regard to the Berkshire tax rate, that is supposed to be materially lower going forward. So the discount you have to apply to the Berkshire insurance float will go up. Just try mentally to put this at about 10 percent of book value. [The tax rate reported by Berkshire for 2018Q1 is to me still a mystery, though, also ref. a comment by globalfinancepartners in the General News topic.] Second, one could argue to put a discount to deferred taxes, too, that at YE2017 are stated at USD 56,182 M, of which USD 24,251 M are related to unrealized investment gains on the listed stock portfolio, and USD 26,651 M are related to property, plant & equipment. I have no numbers gymnastics to refer to here - but it's pretty evident at least to me, that a material part of these deferred taxes wont surface as actual taxes payable any time soon. The only risk related to valuation of this liabily is political, which turned out to be a huge upside in 2017. - - - o 0 o - - - So, without taking valuation of deferred taxes into consideration, and applying Mr. Bloomstran's valutions, and rb's valuation of Berkshire insurance float, we have seen fellow board members recently pick up Berkshire stock at about 190, meaning buying at a discount to intrisic value of [100 - [190 / [[250 + [10% of 250]] * 100%]] ~ 31%. [My emphasis: <-!] - - - o 0 o - - - Third, there are accounting conventions effects on Berkshire intangibles. The income statements and the balance sheets does not represent true economic earnings and values because of those. ... No, I won't go there, because I can't quantify it with any degree of precision ...

Hi Jeff, It appears, that I was willing to load up on the four big US banks in January this year. ... -Well, sometimes things and opinons just change. [it's now down to three.] Somehow, I consider this topic your personal sandbox topic here on CoBF. - - - o 0 o - - - Congrats on your exams! -That's just awesome! - - - o 0 o - - - Also I just want here to express my understanding of you not being particular active here on CoBF ATM. Life isen't easy, when it gives you lemons. I just hope that you're [so-so] OK. [it will fit you well, if you aren't, actually.]

Sure you do, Jurgis. The point here is that you're not not anywhere near up 19 percent this year. - Please remember, I'm the only guy reading your investment blog! [i really could not help it here! [ ; - D]] Why the hate? There is no hate involved here, spartansaver, You obvisously haven't read the topic in all details.

Scott, where are you?

Sure you do, Jurgis. The point here is that you're not not anywhere near up 19 percent this year. - Please remember, I'm the only guy reading your investment blog! [i really could not help it here! [ ; - D]]