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John Hjorth

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Everything posted by John Hjorth

  1. One thing is Uber, another thing is car pooling / car sharing - what are your thoughts, gents?: Bloomberg - Hyperdrive - By Stefan Nicola & Elisabeth Behrmann [August 17th 2018]: 'Peak Car' and the End of an Industry - In Germany - The birthplace of the modern automobile - carmakers are anticipating the day when people stop owning cars. [Article outlined here.]
  2. Ref. Cigarbutt's post, perhaps it has to do with regulations about by law mandatory inspections of cars here in EU after four years, then every second year. [Rules may vary by country - this is minimum inspection frequency for an EU country]. [Danish] Traffic Agency: Periodical [car] inspection. It is about a focused effort to reduce risk of car accidents caused by cars out of shape with from security perspective dangerous delayed maintenance. If you don't comply with inspection deadlines, you're fined. If the car does not pass inspection, you have to take the car off the road and deliver back license plates, and if you don't do that either, a warrant for the car goes out to the police. - - - o 0 o - - - I have no knowledge about how such things are regulated in Northern America, thus my use of "perhaps" in first sentence.
  3. Why even go out of a tangent posting wise - as an investor - about football [ref. the topic title], when Juventus is owned by EXOR, not FCAU? - You have to read Johan's post the right way.
  4. Just to shed some light on what rb is talking about, here is a recent analysis of automakers: The Nordnet Blog - Thorleif Jackson [July 17th 2018]: Who is the winner in the auto industry?. And Mr. Jacksons personal preferences: The Nordnet Blog - Thorleif Jackson [July 17th 2018]: My favorite stocks in the auto industry. [One day, I'll perhaps elaborate a bit about Mr. Jackson and about what he's doing.]
  5. That makes sense, alwaysinvert. Not so long ago, longinvestor posted something along like "The market now has to vote, instead of Omaha setting the price" [after which Omaha will decide to buyback, or not].
  6. I'm thinking in line with longinvestor. I think the logical step would be the chairman and the three vice chairmen on the stage next spring. Reduces workload on the two oldest of the four men during the whole day. Still no interviews with Mr. Buffet since July 17th ["Buyback policy change" announcement date]?
  7. Conglomerate investing is like starting mingling and merging toes with another person relatively late in life. You have to take the whole package, or pass.
  8. Perhaps Mr. Buffet needed some cash to hand over more capital to manage by Mr. Combs & Mr. Weshler [and woulden't reduce overall level of cash & T-Bills]? - I'm just speculating here. This "Here are USD X B to manage your own way, but don't buy "my" stocks" can create some odd situations.
  9. Added to MKL, FFH.TO, LUND B.STO [L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB, ser. B] & INDU C.STO [industrivärden AB, ser. C] during the day today.
  10. First [lowest] sell order for PNDORA.CPH [of 1/3, at 370] just filled.
  11. Yes, indeed, a very nice FFH trailer/teaser/bird perspective write-up by Ben Comston, chrispy, Thank you for sharing it.
  12. . Personally, I think this speach by Mr. Browder is much better than most of the other speaches held by him, because he in this speach is [much] more specific about the technical details in what was going on in Russia post USSR dissolution from an investment angle, likely because of the audience, so I suppose my fellow CoBF board members might think that, too. - - - o 0 o - - - Where do I get this book as hardcover, & new [, & in English] at a reasonable price [scalping seems to be going on on Amazon]? -I can't find it! Any help much appreciated, thank you. - Perhaps the solution is to kindly ask Mr. Browder to do a reprint of the hardcover version?
  13. Gents, How about China and its internal mountain of debt, shadow banks, real estate construction folly [whole empty "ghost" cities] etc.? Some numbers here: [source : Forbes: Worlds largest companies & Wikipedia: Contries by GDP]. China: Major banks - total assets: ICBC USD 4,210.9 B China Construction Bank USD 3,631.6 B Agricultural Bank of China USD 3,439.3 B Total : USD 11,281.8 B China GDP : USD 12.014.6 USA: Major banks - total assets: JPM : 2,609.8 BAC : 2,328.5 B WFC : 1,915.4 C : 1,922,1 Total USD 8,775.8 B US GDP : USD 19,390.6 B
  14. Do you remember this? I'll bet this will never happen again with Mr. Hamburg as CFO. I haven't studied his 2014 bonus in the AGM 2015 proxy, though! [ : - ) ]
  15. More "legacy assets" in my brothers portfolio - small positions: FLS.CPH [F. L. Smidth & Co. A/S] [Website]. NDA DKK.CPH [Nordea Bank AB]. PAAL B.CPH [Per Aaarsleff Holding A/S B] [Website]. - - - o 0 o - - - End of of legacy sweep, except PNDORA.
  16. Welcome to you here on CoBF, KFS! [ : - ) ] Just for your information, there is also the last three client letters from Semper Augustus, which can be accessed here, just in case you don't already know them.
  17. Here I'm reposting an exchange between longinvestor and I in the topic Sequoia Fund Investor Day Transcript. Please note the date of the exchange. Food for thought. I would say that we have a forecaster among us here at CoBF, who can actually forecast. NoCalledStrikes, As always, it's easy to see in the polished & clear rear mirror. [ : -) ] My only addition here is, that rolling out of Berkshire and into something else most likely adds risk to the total portfolio, so the judgement of potential return on what one is rolling into matters much while doing that. [because Berkshire has lot of built-in diversification.] I suggested to do something about all three points by buying Berkshire - a ton - to him. I suggested some sort of average in, to get it roughly right. His reaction: "No, just buy it. You say the entry point right now is not totally silly, and it's long term, right?" I got some BRK.B for him at 182.80 on November 27 in his tax deferred account, and the rest - a lot - the day after - actually the exact day that Berkshire started to take off - at 186.00 in his taxable account. It was just a lucky punch, based on several elements of randomness, that got him out of the start block in a good way with Berkshire. Kudos to you for "timing" Berkshire for your brother. Surely he's happy but hopefully he is "long term". There is a different kind of happiness that the long term shareholder feels but something words cannot express. And my long term started 15 years ago. I met a couple at the Berkshire meeting whose long term started in 1978. Now, let me address the urban myth going around right now; that the tax reform and the resulting benefit to Berkshire is the reason for the recent swelling of the market price. Sure. After all, the market is a voting machine and the math on that is easy. 20% more profits inuring to the shareholders and $37B of one time estimated BV gains ain't shabby at all. Let's get to the weighing machine. I've been calling out (for more than a year) that the IV was well north of what the stock is selling for, now. That 1.2x BV threshold has messed with rationality of lot of folks. I've consistently been in the school that at 1.2x, it was a 70 or 60 or 50 or...xxxty cent dollar. How much of a bargain is a matter of time. Buffett uses "instantly and materially" when he talks about the buyback benefiting remaining shareholders. The 1.2x is a vaguely correct estimate of a ridiculous discount to IV. The market for sure made that precisely wrong. Market value will eventually catch up with IV. - - - o 0 o - - - My apology for not responding to that particular post back then, longinvestor. So short reply here: I have said to my brother, that no matter what happens, Berkshire will be his last stock to sell. His burn rate in retirement, from what he can see right now [start april this year] is basically equal to his state pension, payments from his pension scheme from his former public employment and from ATP. [ https://www.atp.dk/en ]. So no withdrawals from his stockportfolio needed, based on unchanged lifestyle compared to while he was still working. They have only one kid, a young lady of the age 36. Likely she'll be really wealthy later in her life. - - - o 0 o - - - We don't need to take daily notes about volumes, it's all on the Berkshire page at NYSE.
  18. PNDORA.CPH [Pandora A/S]. Doubled a small position to still small. Topic.
  19. I think the line of thinking by longinvestor is backed by the fact that Mr. Buffett hasen't given an interview about it yet [AFAIK]. Nobody can convince me that Becky Quick hasen't tried to get one with him by now.
  20. We'll find out by reading the section "Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds and Issuer Repurchases of Equity Securities" in the next 10-Q [p. 45 in the 2018Q2 10-Q], combined with analysis of "CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY" [p.5 in the 2018Q2 10-Q], about three months from now.
  21. Here is my take, however I haven't ever studied the spread between the A shares and the B shares: If I was Mr. Buffett and and Mr. Munger, I would focus on the B shares to buy, because it's supposed to be the cheapest all the time, because of the irreversible nature of the conversion from A to B, not the other way around. Against that talks, that some blocks of A shares might end up never converted. [Think early Berkshire investors, First Manhattan Berkshire shares etc.] We could track both, and conversions from A to B in the next Q-10. We already know what Mr. Buffett has converted from A to B.
  22. That's great questions, SwedishValue, We need to keep an eye on the development in the daily volume for the next three months, where we'll find out by facts presented to us in the 2018Q3 Q-10, if Berkshire has actually been buying back during the quarter.
  23. I watched this in the evening the Saturday before last Saturday together with the Lady of the House, based on this topic started by Liberty, Honestly, it affected my sleep between that particular Saturday and the Sunday, my brain projecting the description and the picture painted of the person onto to person now in the Worlds most important and influential office. Personally, I don't think it's totally fair to have it under a common theme of "Dirty Money" on Nexflix [compared to some of the other episodes], but for now, just let that go. To me personally, that particular episode paints a picture of a person, who - hmm, err - how should I phrase it ... - lives in another matrix than me, with regard to recognition of reality. [i'm not trying to stir the pot here... - please just consider it a fact, that that's my personal & subjective perception of the picture painted.] Thank you for sharing, Liberty.
  24. Also thank you to you for the elaboration here, Dynamic, - very kind of you. I got it on Yahoo Finance. It's a no go for me, unfortunately, at my broker. I can only find the A in Frankfurt, but not the B. I'm a bit puzzled about it, and will give my broker a call. Your considerations about using BRYN to raise your cost base makes perfect sense to me, based on what you have explained to me earlier about UK capital gain taxes in the "What are you buying today" topic.
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