John Hjorth

Greg, Personally, I think : "Is Mr. Powell really that bad at communication?" [but that's naturally just me. ...] To me, in short, being FED chairman is a Uriah post. [Please don't take that too seriously about who screws who! [ : - ) ]] Also, CNBC - Federal Reserve [June 13th 2018] : Fed’s Powell says he will begin news conferences following each meeting starting in January.

shalab, I actually had to read the quotation of Mr. Dalio three times and think a bit about it before posting this. Taking it verbatim [the second line], it could be understood as Mr. Dalio just wants the FED to divert from its mandate. [And I don't think that it should be understood that way, actually, but that was how I read it while reading it the first time.] After reading it the third time, I think it means, that asset prices effects from FED rate decisions are a logical and natural part of considering the total effects on the economy via the feedback loops to the real economy from the financial markets, and thus such effects should be taken into consideration under the FED's interest rate decisions. [And that is actually also what I get from reading Cardboard's last post in this topic.] The reason for this is there exist feedback loops from asset prices to the activity level in the real economy [i.e.: think real estate]. If this is what Mr. Dalio meant, then I think every CoBF member agree on that. With regard to Mr. Dalio's last sentence: I think that should be read exactly the same way as what I have phrased above about the first two lines. It is a fact [at least to me], that it must easier for the FED to be downward flexible with interest rates, if you already are in an interest rate territory, where being downward flexible with interest rates don't bring in a territory, where interest rates doesn't bring you in a territory, where the FED start screwing up healthy incentives & things by creating a negative price on money. So, in short: Yes, it's "just" a side effect, but to me certainly not a laughable one. - - - o 0 o - - - Edit: And after reading it the fourth time, I just think : "Yes, naturally, Mr. Dalio is just yet another money manager with his personal incentives."

Well, the poll does not tie well with the activity level in the Druckenmiller and Trump were right topic, right? [ : - ) ] Getting back to "normal" interest territory in the US is not a bad thing at all. Yes, it creates volatility etc. [- perhaps even some pain some places -] in some markets right now, but then you avoid a multiplier effect on the pain now instead of it gets worse at a later point in time. [i think Viking has mentioned that earlier somewhere.] It also - gradually - brings back the interest tool in the toolbox of the FED.

With now one trading day left in 2018, based on the reverse engineering of the 2018Q3 market data and data about actual buybacks in 2018Q3, it looks like buybacks for USD ~4 B at an average share price of USD ~201 [at 10 percent of average daily volume, & average buyback price calculated as B share equivalents] for 2018Q4. BRK_-_Calculation_of_maximum_share_buybacks_period_20181001_-_20181228_-_v1_-_20181229.xlsx

Today I spent about 1½ hours looking at Berry Global. It's a wonderful business, as I see it. Very competent capital allocation and M&A integration. You'll do well with this, kab60. Somehow, the topic in the Investment Ideas forum so far has skipped my attention. [- but not any longer.]

Shalab, Thanks. I think I actually haven't expressed any opinion yet in this topic, so far, if you ask me. [About if FOMC has made a mistake with the last rate hike, or not.] So please consider me the glowing doubt on that as of yet. In this topic, personally, I'm [more or less desperately] seeking input in this topic to make a judgement on that - data driven input - for discussion & evaluation. Today, I came across of this: Bloomberg Markets [December 27th 2018] : Traders Face New Landscape With Powell at Microphone After Every Fed Meeting - More flexibility? - perhaps both with regard to communication, & mentally?

Shalab, Interesting discussion technique here. Are you trying to tell me what I think, or what? - Or are you just deeply condescending? [,- on a professional level for an economist [, which I actually happen to be.]]

It's OK, rb [ :- ) ], Here are some facts & data: Facts: Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Press Release [April 3rd 2018] : John C. Williams Named President and CEO of New York Fed. That press release actually verbatim confirms what Eli posted about the election process for the regional Federal Reserve banks. Data : Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Liberty Street Economics [December 4th 2018] : Labor Markets in the Region Are Exceptionally Tight. Presentation. - - - o 0 o - - - [Just as an example. - Data all over the place!]

Thank you, Eli, - for contributing to giving this topic direction, with facts!

Dalal.Holdings, Personally, I respectfully disagree with you [with regard to the belonging of this topic], because this is the key: The question and also the key here is, which available data should we look at right now? This will get this topic in a data driven direction, in my humble opinion, and thereby provide value to CoBF members reading and / or participating in this topic.

Comments: Posted by globalfinancepartners in this topic several months ago - on October 6th 2018, actually: To me, this "hunch" of globalfinancepartners' appears to me almost spooky. It seems to be totally spot on. Please also look up posts by globalfinancepartners since October 6th 2018 in this topic for more confirmation on that particular matter. - - - o 0 o - - - -Maybe globalfinancepartners is psychic, or perhaps he just happens to own a crystal ball, that actually works!

Why are you gents even discussing Berkshire book value per share in relation to what's ongoing in this topic? The rest of the crowd here at CoBF in this topic left that paradigm July 17th 2018.

I just ordered a Christmas gift for all my fellow board members - two halves, actually: "Alexa - get me a half up-day in the US, and a half up-day in Canada!" - Merry Christmas to all of you!

This is getting insane. You'd think we are in the midst of some massive crisis. Or that every listed company in the US is cooking it's books... I know Tepper basically just declared the Fed Put dead, but all the writing on the wall, at least to me, seems to indicate that with a little more pain, a lot of folks are going to start looking to resurrect it. Twitter links & links to Bloomberg articles ... -It would be nice if this could be a data & facts driven discussion.

Attached is my stab of today at reverse engineering of Berkshire 2018Q3 buybacks. BRK_-_Calculation_of_maximum_share_buybacks_period_20180701_-_20180930_-_v1_-_20181223.xlsx

Personally, I appreciate this discussion ongoing. To me, Mr. Powell & Mr. Williams are decision makers on this particular matter at hand, and we can each personally agree or disagree - which in the end won't change one whit [<-learned that expression from Uccmal!]. Somehow, I'm a more practical, hands-on person also, thinking in actual portfolio and what to do in this overall situation. Actually, I've been extremely busy during the downturn, buying and selling quite intensively. Every challenge is - approached mentally the right way - also an opportunity. In the accounts I have for years been struggling with "misplaced" stocks, between the tax deferred accounts and taxable accounts. It's about what I call "misplaced pure play compounders" [stocks with steady growth potential, paying no or low dividends], which I prefer to hold in taxable accounts, to defer taxes as long as possible]. For me, these are BRK.B, MKL & TOP.CPH [<- this one has been], and also FFH.TO is in this basket, for which I [for historical/legacy reasons] have been forced to buy them in tax deferred accounts, because of how and in which order capital has become available for investment. This sell-off has created an opportunity to sell at depressed prices in taxable accounts to get fairly low taxes on realized capital gains in taxable accounts, to rearrange stock positions between taxable and tax deferred accounts. [TOP.CPH has changed from being such a "pure play compounder" [with no dividends] to a pure play dividend stock, after Sampo Plc has taken effective control over the company and changing the buyback program to a dividend program.] [ I don't post on here about those transactions.> The opportunity to get out of small, low conviction positions ["legacy positions"], considered fairly priced, at low taxes, and at the same time the opportunity to roll into / adding to positions, that I right now consider cheap. [i post here about those transactions.>

There are 4½ trading days left right now on NYSE in 2018 [December 24th [half trading day], 26th, 27th, 28th & 31st], right? - - - o 0 o - - - I think I'll start updating my tool for 2018 tomorrow. Based on the thoughts posted here by globalfinancepartners, I'll add the optionality to change the percentage of daily volume bought by Berkshire from 25 percent to whatever you may personally expect between 0 and 25 percent, as a separate input variable. It shouldn't be that time consuming.

This: Please keep me out of this. [sorry, I couldn't help it.] [<- What smiley is appropriate here?] Just keep creating the demand and we'll leave you alone. socalled MA humor is soo relentless and harsh, that I'm now going to dig up that particular hurt feelings report posted somewhere by Jeff [DooDiligence], which will be filled and filed at Sanjeev! - Just to give Sanjeev a good laugh, too ...!

This actually - to me personally, at least - supports in a great way, what rb posted above: CNBC [December 21st 2018] : NY Fed President John Williams: The central bank is listening to the market, but believes the US economy is strong. Please listen carefully to what Mr. Williams here said. To me, it's a good elaboration of what Mr. Powell said earlier this week about the actual rate hike. To me, those statements are not in conflict with what Mr. Powell said - they are more emphasized on clarity of the material points of what Mr. Powell said : FED will stay flexible, and there is no promise of two rate hikes in 2019. - - - o 0 o - - - There is one other issue at hand here that I see omitted in this discussion : What's next when the actual trade issues etc. creating all the noise at the moment are over? [Also, the North Korean denuclearization issue may pop up again in the near future.]: The US infrastructure program. - How do you think that may work out, if the US labor market is already to some extent exhausted, and the US economy running near max. capacity? -From that perspective, I personally think that FED actually did the administration a favor with the rate hike this week.

Please keep me out of this. [sorry, I couldn't help it.] [<- What smiley is appropriate here?]

Crazy stuff to read, rb, It reminds a bit about when I was buying SAN at the day of the Brexit vote disclosure. With regard to this sell-off, - as always - time will tell. Personally, I think I've lost my reptile brain. I don't know where I've dropped it. No real mental reaction going on. Also for that, time will tell, if it's a bug or feature. If it's a bug, I'll start to search for that lost thingy. As investors, we have several not so pleasant things in front of us right now.

Added a bit to BRK.B today. - - - o 0 o - - - Not exactly a day here on CoBF like August 24th 2015, huh? [; - D] CoBF_screen_shot_board_index_20150824.docx

Small positions - legacy assets : COLO B.CPH [Coloplast A/S B] NZYM B.CPH [Novozymes A/S B]

Thanks for pointing that out for me, globalfinancepartners, But for 2018Q3 we discussed some time ago, that the new buyback scheme would not get effective untill a certain date in 2018Q3. Am I right that this date was the release date of 2018Q2 10-Q?

I'll try to reverse engineer the market data for 2018Q3 using my tool. I will need to tweak it a bit to take into consideration blackout periods. I expect to do it between Christmas and New Year. I'll put some charts and diagrams in there, too, to visualize things. And then repeat the procedure in the beginning of 2019 for the full 2018Q4.