John Hjorth

Seeking Alpha [December 19th 2018] : Warren Buffett to 'substantially exit' Home Capital investment. Home Capital Group Press Release [December 19th 2018].

marazul, Link to post in this topic by globalfinancepartners, where also the rules were discussed in depth. Personally, I consider globalfinancepartners very well wandered in this space of regulation. Please also note globalfinancepartners' personal comments and opinion in this particular post. What I have simulated, is a maximum. Please make your own assumptions based on that.

alwaysinvert, That's somehow nitpicking. Please feel free to make your own assumption about the buyback ceiling for 2018Q4, and just substitute in my last post with the figure that fits you, from this post. The point is, this is a loose estimation - you could also nitpick that the outstanding shares for each company is not by a clear cut date and so on ... - the point is, that this gives an overall picture, with some slack in the calculations, also an overestimation [in USD M] because of the market price development in 2018Q4.

More data! [and a bit less talk ...]: Estimated Berkshire selfimposed acquisition capacity EOP 2018Q3 per company for AAPL and the US banks [ranked]: AAPL : USD 50,053 M JPM : USD 33,438 M GS : USD 4,129 M BAC : USD 2,329 M USB : USD 1,293 M BK : USD 891 M - - - o 0 o - - BRK maximum volume based buybacks at price ceiling 208 [<- known for 2018Q3] for period October 1st - December 14th 2018 - a material part of 2018Q4 : USD 5,454 M. - - - o 0 o - - - Calculation attached. BRK_-_Estimated_selfimposed_acquisition_capacity_in_USD_M_in_AAPL_and_relevant_US_banks_EOP_2018Q3_-_20181218.xlsx

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Today I have taken a stab against doing a calculation/estimate of maximum share buybacks in the past part of this quarter, based on available data on NYSE.com for the quarter, at alternative buyback thresholds, measured as share price for the B, and the equivalent price for A [ x1,500], but for the A based on the price pattern & movements for the A. I had to make a decision to calculate daily price averages based on daily open/close or on daily high/low. I went on with daily open/close. First figure : Buyback threshold, expressed as the price for the B share. [Equivivalent for the A: x1,500.] Second figure : Estimated maximum capital allocation to share buybacks for the period October 1th - December 14th 2018. [uSD B] Third figure : Average cost per share bought back, expressed as a B share equivalent price. Results: 195 : 00.000 - N/A 196 : 00.000 - N/A 197 : 00.000 - N/A 198 : 00.000 - N/A 199 : 00.382 - 198.77 200 : 00.382 - 198.77 201 : 00.973 - 199.86 202 : 01.831 - 200.59 203 : 02.096 - 200.80 204 : 02.921 - 201.60 205 : 03.169 - 201.80 206 : 03.720 - 202.33 207 : 04.277 - 202.86 208 : 05.454 - 203.82 209 : 06.435 - 204.50 210 : 09.943 - 204.84 211 : 07.154 - 204.99 212 : 07.537 - 205.30 213 : 07.567 - 205.33 214 : 07.976 - 205.71 215 : 08.646 - 207.19 216 : 09.551 - 207.95 217 : 10.441 - 209.18 218 : 12.020 - 209.65 219 : 12.705 - 209.65 220 : 12.943 - 209.83 221 : 13.823 - 210.48 222 : 14.267 - 210.89 223 : 14.660 - 211.11 224 : 14.660 - 211.11 225 : 14.660 - 211.11 226 : 14.660 - 211.11 227 : 14.660 - 211.11 228 : 14.660 - 211.11 229 : 14.660 - 211.11 230 : 14.660 - 211.11 - - - o 0 o - - - Tool attached. - - - o 0 o - - - I'm actually surprised by these figures [larger than I expected] - I wonder if I have screwed up somewhere? - Please feel free to tear it apart! [Disclaimer : My Excel is setup to Danish - so I actually don't know if formulas and digit separators converts correctly for you.] BRK_-_Calculation_of_maximum_share_buybacks_period_20181001_-_20181214__-_20181215.xlsx

longinvestor, We have some time ago [-totally unspoken, & unanimously!]""appointed" SwedishValue the curator of such data". [Goes like this : Don't post anything of particular interest here on CoBF! - Your destiny will be cumbersome to keep it updated! [ ; - D ]] - - - o 0 o - - - -Any update, SwedishValue? [ : - ) ] [<- SwedishValue, please don't take it too seriously ...]

Small additions to JPM, BAC, C & BAM yesterday during the day, almost like Andy the day before.

Small positions - legacy assets : LUN.CPH [H. Lundbeck A/S] - has done very well - not especially expensive right now, I think - just time to move on. GEN.CPH [Genmab A/S] - has done well - biotech, thereby outside my circle. SIE.ETR [siemens AG NA, Deutsche Börse, Xetra market] - has gone nowhere for years ex. dividends - not a bad business - please look up posts by Spekulatius about it if any interest - just time to move on.

From Mr. Mungers "special Past, Present & Future" Letter, p. 42, lower part : -A bit striking that Mr. Munger cherry picked exactly those two particular Berkshire sub CEOs in his letter now almost four years ago, right? [ ; - ) ]

Jeff, Please have trust in yourself. To me this [for my part] actually has nothing to do with your position in Berkshire at all. [i'm sorry for derailing the topic here, if I did that - still not sure about it.] Actually, I have problems coming up with a more demanding and lonely side gig than being a value based stock picker.

Thank you for sharing, globalfinancepartners, Empire building cont'd, now chapter <unknown>. Hasen't Mr. Buffett been silent [cheap with interviews] for a quite long period of time now? - I suppose his actual modus operandi right now is buying.

The discussion lately in this topic is covered at length in the Berkshire 2017 Annual Report, Item 1A "Risk factors", p. K-22 - K-25. In note 19, p. K-91 some of it is quantified this way:

I think this is true, rb, I'll just add one more "more than once" here: Geico. Market value YE 1995 for about half of Geico: USD 2,393.2 M, cost 45.7 M [<-!]. After which he poured USD 2.3 B into it the next year to own the whole thing. Talk to me about averaging up. Crazy stuff. Flirting with it and going heavy on it when he was a young man, too. I can almost picture him blowing the smoke away from the muzzle of his gun after the second shot, thinking : "Got you, now your mine - I own your butt, you ... beauty." From the 1995 Annual report Shareholder Letter: -I love it! [ : - D] - - - o 0 o - - - Edit: Ceico market price was actually up ~26% at YE1995 because of Bershire's bid for for the last half. Source. [<- H/T Cigarbutt.]

I LOVE CANADA! ... oh wait. You said CARNAGE. Never mind. When a guy has to buy, a guy has to buy. 8) Honestly, a stint of good humor in this carnage does not harm anyone. -Which also brings me to the point: What have you been buying today, Jurgis? [The answer for my own part to that particular question is: Nothing]. Sorry, but I don't post day-to-day purchases and sales. I'll post my monthly activity as always on SI and my blog. IMO nobody should follow what I buy or sell or base any decisions on that. 8) Everything I posted to rb is true. To some degree. 8) I'll let it go from here, and stay away from it here on CoBF going forward, as useless, from my own personal perspective.

When a guy has to buy, a guy has to buy. 8) Honestly, a stint of good humor in this carnage does not harm anyone. -Which also brings me to the point: What have you been buying today, Jurgis? [The answer for my own part to that particular question is: Nothing].

Nate, You have to give, that this friend of yours actually did something right. He "married up" [so to say, "out of" his own stupidity]. I've never been able to find such persons on any Forbes list.

Too much talk, and perhaps too less capital allocation.

Posted by Cigarbutt in the new TRV topic today: No worries, Cigarbutt. The solution to your concerns is already posted by Mike [boilermaker] in this topic somewhere: You simply assume yourself out of that particular future situation. - - - o 0 o - - - Sent from my Commodore 64. [<- Just to keep up appearance with those fellow board members actively posting about AAPL and all the great products from this particular company.]

A new repowering project at PacifiCorp: Vestas Wind Systems A/S Company News [November 28th 2018] : Vestas secures first multi-brand repowering order from PacifiCorp.

Spekulatius, A bit off topic here, but anyway : I was actually a bit surprised when you posted about this buy of yours in the "What are you buying today?" topic - I have from your posts in general for a long time considered you a wholeheartedly investment bank skeptic / hater. [ : - ) ] [To me, naturally OK that you post something like this here, thereby elaborating your line of thinking about risks related to the UK banks and related investment alternatives.]

BG2008, Roses, produced by specific rose nurseries : British David Austin Rose Nursery Ltd. comes to mind here, as a stellar example of a company, that most likely has got a lot of business advantage of Facebook user groups. [Company website] There are "grass root" grown user groups on Facebook [not run or administrated by the company], that are basically World Wide. [The fascinating part is, that wild roses did not originally exist in nature in the Southern hemosphere of the World. Despite that, there actually exists a particular Australian user group of rosarians, that are fans of David Austin roses.] German Kordes Roses also comes to mind here [Company website] with an active usergroup of passionate fans, discussing everything rose related, sharing photos, growing and maintenance tips and so on.

BCS down from YTD high ~12.45 in mid April 2018 to now ~8.38. LYG down from YTD high ~4.19 in end January 2018 to now ~2.94. - - - o 0 o - - - GlobalCapital - Casper Cox [November 20th 2018]: BoE brings forward stress test results ahead of Brexit vote. Bank of England - Upcoming publications : November 2018 Financial Stability Report and Stress Test results will be published on 28 November 2018 at 07:00. Publication brought forward because of the UK Parlament Brexit vote on the Brexit deal negotiated by Ms. Theresa May with EU in the last weekend.

I haven't received the book yet ... [ : - / ] - pretty frustrating, actually. [ETA no later than November 20th 2018.] I hope it'll be here during next week. I suppose Danish mail is the culprit.

Barron's - Andrew Bary - [November 23rd 2018] : Why Warren Buffett Is Big on Big Banks [here outlined].