Spekulatius

If you are expecting it usually will come. This is the short term pain that everyone was looking forward to. Now Trump warns Auto makers not to raise prices. Maybe we need to ration them cars?

Why would the Europeans lift sanctions? The sanction impair Russians economy which finances Russians war efforts. Lifting them makes only sense if the war is over with a satisfactory outcome for Europe. Giving the Russian more money is the last thing that makes sense at this point. Wiffkoff, the emissary to Russia has no experience in diplomacy (he is an old buddy for Trump and real estate developer). For example in one press release, he stated that the ceasefire includes banning strikes and “energy and infrastructure” and the Russians quickly corrected him to “energy infrastructure” which of course is much narrower. Apparently he negotiates with low level KGB agenda that are probably there to grind the Trump emissaries down and exploit there lack of experience.

So far, I can only come up with steel and perhaps WOR who benefit. The problem with steel, Al is that those industries require little jobs, but the users of those materials pay more, get into competitive disadvantage (especially if they export) and employ magnitudes more people, and the result is likely a net loss in employment.

The Su-57 is not stealthy a d has a radar cross section than is probably 100-1000x larger than the F-35. It is Gen 5 in name only. The Russians possibly could ah e achieve air superiority in Ukraine in 2022 when Ukraine hat little air defense syte with more reach, but they were not willing to accept the high losses that they woj d have incurred , so they held their Air Force back. At least that’s my understanding of the situation back then.

American cars don’t exist any more, they all have plenty of foreign content. Prices will go up, there is no way around it. Those that have little foreign content (Honda?) will raise prices too because they can. They would be stupid not to cash in.

It’s not people I don’t want to hear it’s those that perpetuate BS, just plain fabrication of facts etc. The problem with Elon is not as much what he posted, but that it gets amplified in X algos and I need to see everything from his degenerate fanboys too. It pollutes the feed. One of the best things I did was muting key words like Tesla, TeslaQ in my feed because it totally polluted the feed. Then blocking almost all politicians become necessary as well, especially during election. Enough stuff seeps through anyways. X isnt useful uncurated but still useful curated

NVO imports quite a bit in the USA based on the size of their manufacturing sites in the US versus Europe and the revenues they generate respectively. I also don’t think fact will matter all that much if it comes to that point.

“Project Greenland” and NVO are joined at the hip, since they are both Danish. Soon enough you will hear how NVO rips off Americans followed by tariffs from you know who. This is not investment advice.

The best hack to make X a better experience is actually to block Elon. Then block everyone who makes idiotic posts like above in your feed. Relentlessly weeding is key to keep your feed in the Birdsapp jungle somewhat reasonable. If Elons nerfs the block button like he alluded to a couple of times, X likely becomes unusable.

What is also noticeable is that Trump ripped Biden for his drone strikes on the Houthi last year because they were “not our business” and you can “talk to those people” (or something like this) and then does the same stuff basically. I guess shyte always smells better if you produce it yourself.

Whiskeyleak Hegseth is also a liar in addition to being dump and an ex? Drug addict. People like this should not have security clearance and this example show why: I wonder if the folks doing negotiations with Putins KGB team are better. Ukraine emissary Witkoff was in that group chat while in Moskow, meaning he was on a Russian cellphone data line. Or maybe he asked for the Kremlin WiFi password? The incompetence of the current administration is something to behold.

Trump might have as well selected the second man from your local biker gang to be defense secretary. He has the tattoos and the same mind set. Is he still on gin diet or did he went back to beer? Add people like Tulsi Gabbard (Russias girlfriend) and RFK (anti vaxer and voodoo scientist ) and a few others and it’s clear how shockingly incompetent US leadership is. If you want to come up with people to destroy the institution they lead, you could not make made a better choice. I sort of wonder if that’s the point with those appointments.

Blocking Elon Musk helps a bit too, no kidding.

It’s just an additional tariff basically based on volume rather than value of goods. Some ships are probably going to Canadian and Mexican ports and goods get via railroad to the US, to save the $1.5M.

I think the bigger concern is that blocking the Baltic and Black Sea would be seen as an act of war. I don’t think taking off Russian crude off the market is the biggest concern. There are a lot of things that the Euopean could do but still tip toe around like acceding the frozen Russian funds in Belgium and Luxembourg. I think slowly they will come around that Europe can and has to escalate too, not just Putin.

Biden incompetent staff has never had a security leak like that. If you run a chat group discussing war plans, you are already incompetent, even if you don’t invite journalist to it by accident. This is what happens if you hire people like this do the important jobs:

Somebody needs to be fired here for accidentally exposing secrets and everyone in this chat chain should get disciplined because war plans are not supposed to be discussed in a chat group, but in a. Secure messaging system. Its obvious that there are a lot of amateurs in the government right now.

The guest is making some pretty good points: The bond idea is questionable because only 15% of US treasuries are held by foreign governments and that percentage is falling (for good reasons). Pay for protection is questionable. First of all Trump is considered unreliable. Second China is an adversary, so it does not make not sense for them to pay. Europe is boosting defense spending because the USA pivoted to Russia and that is exactly the enemy they are concerned about, hence the boost in defense spending. So why would Europe pay for protection here? What is left is Japan and maybe Korea. I think Korea is inconsequential. Japan may buy some but is this worth the squeeze?

What is wrong with the narrative? It fits the way he acts perfectly.

He is getting a spot on Mt Rushmore in return, at least that’s what he hopes for. As for ulcers, Greenland has strategic value and of course potential mineral riches, possible tourism and it’s basically a white spot on the man with only 65k people living there. So he wants to grab it like Eric the Red did 1000 years ago in a small boat. Now it’s Trump the Orange but in a bigger boat.

This was exactly my thinking when I sold my shares as well. It’s one reason why I like to post here what I am buying, selling or what interest me.

Amateur hour: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

The Crimean war was a loss for Britain and it was an inconsequential war anyways . It’s has little to do with what is happening in Ukraine other than the theater location to some extent. Bottling up the Black see and the Baltics would be relatively easy to do for Europe without US involvement. It reduce Russias ability to export crude which is the main way they finance the war. Most wars are lost economically first, leading to material shortages next, reducing the ability to perform on the battlefield last.

It is important to note that this war (like any other war) is also an economic one. I think it’s important now that Germany seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker: https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/germany-seizes-russian-tanker-its-100000-tonnes-of-oil-cargo-worth-43-3-million/ The Ruropeans can easily make the Baltics a NATO lake, they don’t need US assets to do so. much of Russias shipping goes through the Baltics. I expect more along these lines to follow. Without money from oil and gas sales, Russias economy will no be able to support the war, they are spending already about 40% of the GDP on war and war related expenses by some estimates.

It looks like China buys most of the Iranian oil at large discounts most likely. They don’t care about US sanctions. My guess is that Iran would be very reluctant to give up nuclear weapons because of the Ukraine experience. Having a nuclear weapon is a much better insurance than a contract, that’s for sure. My thinking is that Iran regards their nuclear weapon as an insurance policy much more so than as an offensive weapon, but of course that could change. Their main adversary Israel’s had already nuclear weapons so it’s not really all that useful for attacking Israel anyways. I don’t think this two month ultimatum has been officially confirmed. For the bet, several things need to go right. First the strike on Iran needs to occur and then it needs to actually lift crude prices by a significant amount, which is not a given either.