Spekulatius

It’s impressive but what do a Joe Schmoe upstart comes along and proves that well we don’t need all that stuff, we invented XYZ and can do this 100x cheaper and it’s almost as good. It’s not like this never happened before (Deepseek anyone), as well as in other domains (PC versus Mainframes/ Minicomputer).

On Meta - does anyone have any idea why META invests on bleeding edge AI? I get that they need to use AI ( and have done so for a while) but why do they need to spend like a drunken sailor when thru business is really just running social media properties l Could they just do what Apple does and license the best stuff, and then adapt it to their use case? The Metaverse Fiasko could very well repeat itself but on a grander scale.

ICE - your tax $ at work. Looks like a colorized trailer for a Charlie Chaplin movie.

I believe this is the right take . Yes, the bipartisan bill failed but it’s still Biden’s job things done and he dis not. I guess he thought either the Republicans would fall in line later or it wasn’t important enough. He was incorrect on both.

Bought some Tacmina pump 6322 for my Japan basket. It does not have a catalyst but decent to good fundamentals and half their market cap is in cash and securities. The stock trades at a small premium to tangible book. 2025年3月期決算説明資料 (1).pdf

China spending on AI is much lower than what is happening in the US. China spends much more on industries that have to do with AI (robotics, self driving cars, semiconductors ) specific use cases than AI itself.

Yes, but their home markets are tiny so the business that you can invest in export or have direct business in any other countries including the USA. So this is not really a solution.

Believe it or not ORCL is FCF negative by a significant amount and already levered at 4x EBITDA. What could go wrong? This could be a juicy short or candidate for puts some point.

I also forgot 25% tariffs on heavy trucks which may or may not stack on country tariffs. https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/25/business/furniture-truck-tariffs-trump Furniture is at 30%. I don’t think it’s enough to get the furniture industry in NC back.

More tariffs for furniture: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-to-impose-tariffs-on-pharma-imports-kitchen-cabinets-and-furniture-175804917.html Medical Equipment: https://www.medtechdive.com/news/trump-tariffs-medical-devices-equipment-ppe-section-232-investigation/761118/ We still have tariffs for pharmaceutical on docket https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/trump-announces-100-tariff-imports-branded-or-patented-pharmaceuticals-october-1-2025-09-25/ Semiconductors: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-impose-tariffs-semiconductor-imports-firms-not-moving-production-us-2025-09-05/ This all in addition to the country tariffs that are already in place. What a time to be alive!

There is no circulatory in this financing. it would circular if DE/CNH would invest directly in farms providing capital to farmers so they can buy their equipment. CAT does not producing farming machinery.

There are elections in October and Milei got a warning shot. They want to help Milei win this election, that’s why this aid package is done so quickly.

Yes, these circular relationships are nothing new. Lucent gave generous finance terms customers who probably could not afford the equipment otherwise.

I think the best play to buy what the current crowd thinks gets disrupted. Sectors like software, consulting, financial data.

Every generation gets to play a bubble. Mine was the telecom bubble from 1997-2000. I think this one is bigger in term off investment in this sector/ GDP and also our government is all in.

For context, I recall two times when Argentina went on a reagonomics like reform binge, fixed the deficit and the currency stabilized only only to fall apart due exogenous forces and internal political (voters got fed up with lack of progress, corruption . Those were in the mid 90‘s and early 2000. In the later case it was the GFC that did them in. Also to keep in mind, the former government has was whacked by the COVID-19 crisis which affected the Argentina economy substantially and triggered a spending binge that this country could not afford. Foreign money and investors are wary of Argentina and pull the rug quickly when they see trouble unlike with most other countries. Based on some economics comments I read, it seems to me that Milei is much took focused on keeping the Peso/USD exchange rate stable, which can quickly drain foreign reserves at the central bank. This is done fight inflation (a depreciating Peso will cause more inflation) but it also causes the issue that some Argentinian industries don’t remain competitive. One of the problem with Argentina is that the economy remains very resource and AG products dependent and never really build out a manufacturing base. This is the a result of the resource sector being so successful in the early 20th century (1900-1950) that they didn’t need manufacturing and just imported those goods. The problem is resource industries don’t employ a lot of people so the solution became to give them basically government service jobs instead.

$100B. $100Mm buys you an AI guy who knows how to write code. https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-invest-100-billion-openai-2025-09-22/ So $NVDA invests $100B in OpenAI, they buy $100B in chips from NVDA. Thats worth 10x revenues. The stake in OpenAI is worth another $500B next year. So $NVDA just created $1.4T in value. Thats how this works.

As usual Lutnick has no idea what he is talking about. Said it was an annual fee, now it’s a one time one. I also think lobbying will excempt some companies. Then we get a short commercial about the Trump Gold card in the Oval Office. Even some banana republics have more class.

Sold my starter in SES.MI. One of those dip buys that worked out.

Very well said. Laws are a product of their time and often need to be adapted. Where does the right to self defense against government tyranny stop? The military now has missiles, fighter planes, tanks, drones, satellites etc. Does the right of defense against tyranny include anti satellite missiles to defend against government spying on me, stinger missiles to defend against fighter planes, ATGM against tank and a large caliber machine gun on a truck to defend against amassing infantry ? Most people would say this makes no sense. For home defense a handgun and/or shotgun will do fine.

I am fairly sure that access to firearms is a factor in gun violence. If I don’t have a gun lying around, I can shoot anyone. A lot of gun violence is done on impulse (rage) and when gun isn’t available, those probably won’t happen. The second are underlying issues, which could be economic stress, mental issues etc. There is a perfect social experience going on in Israel. Since Oktober 6 2023, Israel has eased gun ownership significantly so citizens can protect themselves from terrorist attacks. Makes sense. Contrary to popular belief, it wasn’t easy to get a license to carry a gun in Israel beforehand, now its much easier, The result is a remarkable increase in domestic gun violence in Israel, since October 6: https://www.timesofisrael.com/domestic-violence-exacerbated-by-wartime-raising-concerns-over-looser-gun-policies/ I had a talk with a college from work who is from Israel who pointed this out to me.

They were sure to mention that they are a Nuclear power.

Seems like tailor made (pun) for LVMH to acquire.

A bit more PUIG, GRG and BAH

Insurance customers can’t demand all their money immediately.