Spekulatius

I also bought a few shares of CSU. First time I own this.

I own this too unfortunately but haven’t added yet. I think the outgoing CEO did a real number on this business and now runs the Social security administration

Cow farts are mostly methane which is a strong greenhouse gas. So yes there are efforts underway to capture the methane from animal farts and use it as biogas. It’s very reasonable in pig farms etc. Animal Agriculture is indeed a large source of Methane and a significant part of the total human output that can be reduce. Vulcanos are another but it would be hard to address that one. Maybe we use humans as batteries? I have seen this work well in movies.

EQR and AVB are heavily invested in coastal market like NYC, LA etc, I prefer the sunbelt exposure of CPT and MAA. Sunbelt has better demographics and no crazy politics but less barriers to build Multifamily, so it’s a trade off. It’s cheap to rent in CLT compared to owning a condo - I think it supports rents.

Canada may buy the SAAB Gripen instead of the F-35. The Gripen is not stealthy but its may fit Canada well as there are quite a few similarities between Canada and Sweden. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/canada-delays-f-35-decision-as-ottawa-weighs-gripen-option-and-industrial-return

Based multiples, Multifamily cos like MAA are cheaper than during the COVID-19 trough. MAA is huge here where I live (CLT area) and while there is a lot of new supply, there is a lot of influx of people too, so I don’t think that rents are going to drop for extended periods of time either. MAA’s dividend yield is 4.7% and it’s going to go up over time. I think it’s a great holding inside and IRA as an inflation correlated bond and I continue to buy more shares there. I also have some PSA and a lesser amount of CPTin the same bucket.

This won’t be over once a Trump leaves the White house. Abu Dhabi , UAE, the Saudis , your favorite American Oligarch, Putin, Xi Jinping can you buy American politicians on the blockchain. Totally legal. They just need to offer bribery coins for sale. We are so screwed.

Wo sounds like openAI alone has announced datacenters that are going to consume 17 GW (there are more vague announced but they are further out). To generate 17GW, one needs 17 medium sizes but else power plants. 17GW is enough to power about 12.75M homes. Thats just the OpenAI and there is Amazon, xAI, Anthrophic, Google, Meta etc. So when I joke that big tech soon looks like I am not joking because basically they will need to build a giant utility. Does it really make sense to build that much infrastructure for AI. What if China or the players will create AI that is 80% s good but 5 or 10% of the cost ? Who then really will be the winner? Also what will power prices do with to the real economy including household power bills? OpenAI is not going to build 17 nuclear power plants. If they don’t run out of money they will contract for power crowding out other consumers (business or consumers) How is all this going to work?

Taiheiyo bought the Californian readymix cement business form VMR: https://www.taiheiyo-cement.co.jp/english/summary/pdf/251028.pdf $712M in cash. This is substantial for Taiheiyo. I expect the stock to be down today.

Crypto is so tailor made for money laundering and bribery . Now every politician can start a shitcoin and then the donor buys it for “ investment” but really for access and it’s now all open and legal. Funneling cash to politicians was possible before but you needed secret bank account or cash envelopes or a legit looking consulting job (had to leave office for that though) and can get caught. There is no getting caught any more be used it’s legal and in the open. This is going to kick off an other race to to bottom in terms of corruption which started when SuperPAC’s were allowed by the supreme (or should I say subprime court).

I certainly do, but I wonder what caused the selloff to begin with. The headline numbers looked Ok. The CC transcript seems Ok too but management commentary is not very promotional. The Accession acquisition seems to go alright. It does look like the report caused the sector to turn south. Anyways, I bought more BRO and also a bit more AON today.

Yes the personal reduction in line with revenue reduction in the high single digits let me believe that the adjustment period will take a while. Looking back into the sequestering days in 2014 or so, the stock tears at 1x revenue to EV which would be around $70/share. I figure this is the worst case scenario. I am going to buy into $BAH again as this plays out the next 9-12 month.

Pretty much everything is down but BRO more. I am adding a bit more.

It’s not zero next year but much much smaller. Tikr (which is some analyst consensus ) forecast for 2026 $126b in a cash from operations and ~$99B in Capex. I am not sure if this includes these off balance sheet vehicles or not. I think datacenters have a structural component (building, utilities) and a tech component (servers etc). The latter depreciates fairly quickly - in four years or so, it’s worthless. So, the overall depreciation rate for the AI datacenters will be very high and they need to be refurbished completely every couple of years. This will permanently change how the income stats to looks for those tech companies that participate in the AI arms race. So now the big question is how much incremental EBITDA will META generate from their ~$100B in annual Capex spent. Hopefully more than from the Metaverse. They need about $20B in incremental Ebitda just to break even on those investments (imo). .

Added to APR.W (Autopartnet) overbite . APR is a Poland based auto supply part business similar to AZO, GPC but operated in Poland and the rest of Europe. They don’t have strong FCF of AZO and lower margins but a strong organic growth. Organic growth has waned this year to ~7%+ percent but I think it’s picking up. Last month growth was ~10% (they publish monthly revenue numbers) and I think they can do double digits again. I bought my first lot in 2022 when the Polish market crashed and added more this year.

I had the measles as a kid because the vaccine wasn’t available yet. I remember almost a week having itchy blisters all over the body and missing week in school. Other kids hit the jackpot and had some permanent scars. Tough choice between that a single shot. The chance to get the Measels back then with no one being vaccinated yet was almost 100%. If I had been born two years later and I would have missed all the fun.

Looks like a beat to me. Organic revenue growth has remained at ~3.5% - the same than last quarter. I take it as good news that organic growth has not slowed down more.

Reducing RTX and VNT.

Well FCF for META is heading to zero next year. These tech plays will have an income statement that resembles utilities.

BRO will announce earnings today after the close , which should be interesting. The key metrics will be organic growth and the integration of the of the Accession acquisition , imo. AON also has a weak day today . I like this stock also.

This is true but only to the extent that it causes incremental Capex. What I am some is that some Capex heavy seem to become zero Taxpayer spending the same amount that they are spending last year. Read CHTR, ATT Cc transcript for reference . Some companies even get reimbursement checks for taxes paid in prior years. Saw this in SAIC CC (~$1/ share in extra cash flow and ~$200M in taxes returned if I read this is right) There is actually an investment angle in there that BBB is the biggest tax windfall for many large business since the PPP came out during COVID.

I can’t comment on NYC situation but you need to get the hell out of there. As I understand it , you live of your investments which means you can live anywhere you want. You have no reason to stay where you are except inertia.

Interesting article on Argentina and why its economy is lagging partly behind the paywall . Argentina as an economy never transitioned from an Agrarian economy to a manufacturing economy. https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/argentinas-original-sin?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

I disagree here. I think the script is bad and the acting mediocre. It’s 6/10.