Spekulatius

Slowing growth and uncertainly about the future does this to stocks.

Good results again. Holding my shares: https://data.swcms.net/file/avantgroup-corp/dam/jcr:7b0625b2-ecd7-4db1-b656-6b21dde19f5a/140120251031584580.pdf

You are invested in NVO, so you should have a pretty good idea what it can do to your returns. Here is another one:

Hunter Biden’s laptop story was not censored. Fox reported about it as well as other sources.The fact that CNN did not run this as a frontside story doesn’t mean it was censored. The current admins efforts to kick reporters out that they don’t like from the White House , Trump personal lawsuits to news channels/ sources including Reuters for personal gains, threatening to pull broadcasting licenses , personal vendettas to get reporters fired are new and never occurred under Biden. He is running the White House office like his personal business just like the run of the mill autocrat.

If I see this right, the relative improvements in productivity in the US versus the EU been occurring in IT, finance and insurance, and most importantly professional services. What are professional services - a huge contributor ? Lawyers and consulting? . Maybe all this isn’t as great as it seems. Anyways, seems like the Trump administration focuses on sectors that have shown little productivity growth so far for whatever that is worth.

I think rather than think about individual companies, one should think about sectors that might do well, then pick companies from this sector. There have been sectors like semiconductors where you could literally throw darts at ticker symbols Post GFC and the chance to hit a 10 bagger was very high. Doing the same thing with energy would have yields a lot of duds. Being in the right sector is paramount, imo.

Poland has benefited hugely by the EU. It is a primary location for nearshoring. The counter has developed developed by leaps and bounds. I imagine if they were not in the EU and NATO, they could be more like Belarus. Yes, the EU and many countries suffer from overregulation, but it’s not just the EU to blame here as the UK example has shown. The Torry’s governments in the UK since Brexit have just been horrible. Having a social democrat with even a modicum of common sense like Stalmer may actually be beneficial.

Adding a bit to MOH. I think healthcare is near a trough here. I might also add back some ELV (sold some shares for tax losses ) in about 30 days. ELV is my largest position in health insurance.

If the EU is to blame, then why has the UK done worse than the rest of Europe post Brexit? One reason I can come up with that instead of getting rid EU‘s red tape they added their own flavor of UK red tape. Then there are the negative externalities from exiting the EU economic block.

How about legal residents (with Green cards) who get now randomly picked for past transgressions (traffic violations, Marijuana possession dismissed 10 years ago) and now deported for these pretend reasons. What is the purpose of doing so ? What are they trying to accomplish ?

Not necessarily. The Gestapo worked mostly with snitches and through intimidation. You just never knew who worked for/ with them and what they would do or show up. Intimidation and spreading fear in every citizen is much productive and effective than putting people against the wall and shooting them. Watch the movie “Inglorious Bastards”. Christopher Waltz plays a Gestapo Jew Hunter better than anyone else.

Thank you, I was not aware of this activist. The acquisition from Vulcan for $712M looks expensive but is a bolt on to their existing assets in California. I own some Taiheiyo as part of my Japan basket. I think their Japan business should have some promise because cement prices are rising there too and they have the largest market share so they hopefully can start to generate some prints there. besides the Us business and Japan, they have some scattered business in the SE Asia as well.

I decided to add some shares today.

We’ll, you have not been investing in 1998-2000 then. Back then, many tech stocks were flying and the rest was getting flayed. What we have now is is exactly the same situation. One has to be always careful with comparisons, but I think this looks eerily similar we will see an ugly bear market for stock market indices especially the QQQ at some point.

I also bought a few shares of CSU. First time I own this.

I own this too unfortunately but haven’t added yet. I think the outgoing CEO did a real number on this business and now runs the Social security administration

Cow farts are mostly methane which is a strong greenhouse gas. So yes there are efforts underway to capture the methane from animal farts and use it as biogas. It’s very reasonable in pig farms etc. Animal Agriculture is indeed a large source of Methane and a significant part of the total human output that can be reduce. Vulcanos are another but it would be hard to address that one. Maybe we use humans as batteries? I have seen this work well in movies.

EQR and AVB are heavily invested in coastal market like NYC, LA etc, I prefer the sunbelt exposure of CPT and MAA. Sunbelt has better demographics and no crazy politics but less barriers to build Multifamily, so it’s a trade off. It’s cheap to rent in CLT compared to owning a condo - I think it supports rents.

Canada may buy the SAAB Gripen instead of the F-35. The Gripen is not stealthy but its may fit Canada well as there are quite a few similarities between Canada and Sweden. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/canada-delays-f-35-decision-as-ottawa-weighs-gripen-option-and-industrial-return

Based multiples, Multifamily cos like MAA are cheaper than during the COVID-19 trough. MAA is huge here where I live (CLT area) and while there is a lot of new supply, there is a lot of influx of people too, so I don’t think that rents are going to drop for extended periods of time either. MAA’s dividend yield is 4.7% and it’s going to go up over time. I think it’s a great holding inside and IRA as an inflation correlated bond and I continue to buy more shares there. I also have some PSA and a lesser amount of CPTin the same bucket.

This won’t be over once a Trump leaves the White house. Abu Dhabi , UAE, the Saudis , your favorite American Oligarch, Putin, Xi Jinping can you buy American politicians on the blockchain. Totally legal. They just need to offer bribery coins for sale. We are so screwed.

Wo sounds like openAI alone has announced datacenters that are going to consume 17 GW (there are more vague announced but they are further out). To generate 17GW, one needs 17 medium sizes but else power plants. 17GW is enough to power about 12.75M homes. Thats just the OpenAI and there is Amazon, xAI, Anthrophic, Google, Meta etc. So when I joke that big tech soon looks like I am not joking because basically they will need to build a giant utility. Does it really make sense to build that much infrastructure for AI. What if China or the players will create AI that is 80% s good but 5 or 10% of the cost ? Who then really will be the winner? Also what will power prices do with to the real economy including household power bills? OpenAI is not going to build 17 nuclear power plants. If they don’t run out of money they will contract for power crowding out other consumers (business or consumers) How is all this going to work?

Taiheiyo bought the Californian readymix cement business form VMR: https://www.taiheiyo-cement.co.jp/english/summary/pdf/251028.pdf $712M in cash. This is substantial for Taiheiyo. I expect the stock to be down today.

Crypto is so tailor made for money laundering and bribery . Now every politician can start a shitcoin and then the donor buys it for “ investment” but really for access and it’s now all open and legal. Funneling cash to politicians was possible before but you needed secret bank account or cash envelopes or a legit looking consulting job (had to leave office for that though) and can get caught. There is no getting caught any more be used it’s legal and in the open. This is going to kick off an other race to to bottom in terms of corruption which started when SuperPAC’s were allowed by the supreme (or should I say subprime court).