Spekulatius

CSU re- investment is already below 100% this year, so I think it’s already happening. The whale can only get so big sucking in plankton too which is probably the mental image I have regarding CSU acquisition driven growth. I did add a few more shares today.

FWIW, it looks like Polen just bought NVDA and AVGO.bThey are now convinced that these business are not that cyclical any more and the AI fueled growth lasts for longer. Seems a bit late in the game but Polen Capital are food growth investors. https://www.polencapital.com/perspectives/webinar-replay-q3-fireside-chat-large-company-growth

I think the Chinese are more pragmatic about using AI. Idon’t think AI is a race and the one with the biggest data centers and the best LLM wins. It‘s about adoption in the greater economy and I think on that aspect the Chinese may indeed be ahead.

WEB created the B shares because Walls street bankers would have crated high cost trust units, so he said I do this myself and screw them.

Mamdani got elected elected for the same reason people elected Trump. The politicians they elected before were awful and the other candidates were more of the same. It is funny that big money went behind Cuomo even though nobody really likes the guy, not even the big money, They just liked Mamdani less. Voters say fuck them, we vote for the guy just because. His wife is hot too. Trump and Mamdani are two sides of the same coin imo. Voters say fuck the establishment and let’s roll the dice and see what happens.

Well in 2008 there was an issue with the financial industry so I am not sure that particular number means much. I think I would be leaving NYC if I could make similar money elsewhere regardless of Mamdani.

This is a YouTube episodefrom Christian Rieck about Porsche, the auto business and branding. I thinkers one of the bets support form essay that I have ever seen about this topic. In German but auto translate may get the points across well enough.

What are your concerns? I also have been buying because the multiple compression has de-risked the stock, imo.

Look, if you are inclined to get into white collar crime and found a lucrative con, now is the time to do it. Basically Trump issued an executive order that bribery is OK now: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-to-further-american-economic-and-national-security/ The company I work for quickly issued an internal note that our practices regarding this matter still remain in place.

This is basically just critical race theory but for MAGA.

Yes, the 85% seems to be the going rate for the percentage of cash writeoff accruing to unit holders. BWIN has the same 85%, that RYAN does. Doesn’t this arrangement make units inherently more valuable than regular shares? I assume the LP owners incur a tax liability when they convert into shares and essentially the company pays 85% of their taxes. It also means that net earnings are inflated as they are based on a lower tax rate.

Tim Apple needs to do something $AAPLQ

I added to $PINS.

While this makes theoretically sense I ran some numbers on these arrangement and it seem to amount to a very high tax rate for C- Corp holder. For example RYAN since 2019 only generated. $1216M in EBIt cumulatively, how is this worth $450M in tax a liability. Also shouldn’t this tax liability be incurred only for the minority holders , which means 50% of the of the EBIT should be covered by the liability. how does this amount to $450M. RYAN is not alone here, I ran some numbers on a Napkin for IBKR and got similar results. I feel like with this tax receivable arrangement, C Corp shareholders get a raw deal and get screwed over , I just don’t now how exactly. Anyways, no such issues with BRO, AJG and that what I own..

This is the first time he experienced clear cut racism. This didn’t happen here in NC either , he remains resident of MA (from where we moved ) as he continues to attend Umass. Not that this matters really.

It seems stupid. there are like 20 fundamental technical problems that need to be solved to do this and the biggest is the cost to get this into space. Solving the same problems on earth will be way simpler and cheaper. When you see things like this, you know there is too much money floating into the space and that how you get riff raff projects like this.

If people spent $700 instead of $500 on let say a washing machine due to tariffs or domestic business raising prices because they can (less competition from foreign countries enables them to do so) then that extra $200 the consumer does not have any more is not spent on other things. I am not sure that missing $200 is deflationary but it certainly will reduce demand for other food and services because the consumer can spent money only once. So is it a net benefit for the economy if the consume spent $200 more on a washing machine and $200 less on other things? I will guess we will find out. One thing is sure - the economy will adjust. Maybe the washing machine won’t stay $200 more expensive etc…

Just a tiny anectode. My son was campaigning a few days ago for today’s election for an ethnically Chinese democrat candidate. They got threatened by a fellow who came after my son calling him a “terrorist supporter “ and yelling at both my son and the candidate “ to go back to the shithole country where they came from” Well the candidate might be looking Chinese but he is born in the USA (as far as I know) and so is my son. So where exactly are they supposed to go back to? They called the police about the fellow but he disappeared before they came and we have no idea what happened to that not so nice fellow (probably nothing). I guess some people really feel emboldened nowadays. I told my son to record these folks on his phone if anything like this happens again (if possible) and post it on TikTok or Instagram. I would guess that shaming working better than the police.

This is what the AI maximalists should worry about . OpenAi’s models are good, but Alibaba’s are fast and cheap: Getting 80% of the performance for 20% of the cost is a winning combo.

I suspect it’s already happening but it can easily get worse. I don’t think institutional investor wait until mid December.

Climate change is not a 10 year problem, it’s a 50-100 year problem. It does mean it can be ignored but it won’t kill us in the next 10 years either. One has to be mindful that the problems we create now like blowing CO2 in the what atmosphere are cumulative and the stuff will still be around 50 years from now. AON the other hand one can have a little faith in humane progress and the ability of mankind to come up with new solutions to the problems in the future. Extremist views that climate change can be ignored or that climate change kills us all are simply nonsense.

There are different way to look at this. The Norwegian oil fund was designed to protect citizens when the Norwegian oil revenue won’t flow any more. Why would they invest in foreign oil business when they already own and control a huge energy business at home and the purpose of the fund is diversify away from energy? It does not make any sense. it makes all the sense in the world to keep the oil and gas revenue flowing at home and invest as needed and bail from energy investment elsewhere where they don’t control the capital allocation or outcome. Also, has energy been a great area to invest? I think not, except you are a swing trader and I think the Norse Wealth fund is a bit large for being a swing trader.

Gates states that Climate change is a serious problem, he never said that “it’s garbage”. Dealing with this issue sensibly does not mean degrowth either. Extreme statement like this are pretty much guaranteed to be wrong as they are not consistent with sound data. We know that the climate is changing and earth is getting hotter, actually predicted by climate models decades ago. Things can be done as the ban on CFC’s shows. This has reduced the ozone hole that could have caused millions of cancer death and impacted plant growth due to excessive UV light exposure.

Avants Groups result look fairly consistent to me. They tend to see a larger rise in revenue in Q4 but a drop in operating profit for the same quarter. This was less pronounced this year than in former years. So there are some seasonal factor at play here.

The brokers are still seeing organic growth . For at least BRO and AJG, the consumption of the large deals they did should mean that earnings are almost guaranteed to go up next year. I also bought some AJG shares this morning. First time I own this stock.