Spekulatius

This is a good podcast along Wabuffo’s lines (Interview with Cullen Roche) https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/we-study-billionaires-the-investors-podcast-network/id928933489?i=1000486090490

Thank you. What does below MM 30 mean? What do you do outdoor in Utan, Montana, Wyoming? Shortly after Miami, I-95 turns into US-1. At the top of the Keys you're at around 100 and the end is Key West which is MM0. 100-75MM is basically tourists and fishing heavy, especially the 80's. 75-30MM is pretty much locals. A little blue collar and hick-ish. 30-0MM is probably one of the few candidates for a utopian community in the US, at least that I am aware of. Something for everyone, from culture, to food, to historical stuff. Fishing, diving, partying. People of all shapes, sizing, colors, and orientations coexist and everyone just gets along and wants to live life. Awesome place. I looked at this briefly and you are looking at ~500k for a fairly crummy Appartement and who knows how much for a house. RIP if you get a hit by a hurricane. I wonder what the insurance is for a house there? Also, for Muscleman, it would be a bit far from Seattle.

Is Flagstaff actually a place to live? I've been there couple times while going to Grand Canyon and IMO it's basically a deserted gateway town with couple hotels for cheap people who don't want to pay up to stay next to Grand Canyon. Pretty zero attractions. Yeah, you can drive to Grand Canyon and Sedona, but ... ::) I know you hate Phoenix, but Phoenix is actually big enough (actually maybe too big right now) to have restaurants, culture, activities, etc. Flagstaff IMO is dead. Though maybe it has changed in the last 10-15 years since I stayed there. ::) Well, I went there only once about 10 years on a trip to the mountain states (NM, AZ, CO, UT) and there at least a few good breweries and mexican restaurants there, so there that. Phoenix as a city is actually OK, as there are nice areas, but the climate just brutal. We went there in fall and the Thermometer of our showed close to 120F, so it’s basically a hellhole (urban hotspot). Las Vegas is the same. I have complimentary things of Tuscan and the temperature there are much more moderate, but still quite hot. Personally, my favorite from the mountain states is CO.

Some places have 2 seasons and are desirable in summer and winter. I am a big fan of the mountain states and I think the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe and Flagstaff are great locations (albeit not cheap). If you don’t mind the Mormons and weak beer, then Utah has great areas too. If using it as a second home, you need to consider airport connectivity too - Flagstaff via PHX works great.

^ Wabuffo, thanks for the illustrative example. I think we slowly come around the fact that buying treasuries will lead to more bank reserves, which isn’t really good news for banks at all (since they have a larger and larger percentage of low yielding and risk free assets on their balance sheet). It would become a disaster (for banks) if we get negative interest rates, also the Fed officials so far vehemently refuted negative interest rates so far.

Bronte is also Open. Looks like it is open for US investors as well. It is one of the few long short funds worth considering (imo) and John Hampton always makes a lot of sense to me. https://www.brontecapital.com/partners-letters

Margins calls get executed the same day, but it takes time to wind down a fund. Could you tell me where you heard these rumors? If he did not lever up, then he would have survived the COVID crash and be fine right now. But if he had levered up, it would be strange for him to say in his letters that he will dissolve the fund in 6-9 months, because with margin calls, he does not have 6-9 months to dissolve.

AAII probably surveys their own members and those have very little overlap with the crowd from Sherwood Forest.

The individuals are definitely fucking this up. Trump has just been encouraging them from a position of authority and a wide reaching audience. Also, Trump being president is in a position to make decisions that positively or negatively impact tens of millions (if not hundreds). Any decision made by an individual is likely limited to directly impacting a handful of people. So individuals are making poor decisions that impact tens of people and Trump has been making terrible decision that impact tens of million of people. A baseball player(or any athlete) breaks protocol to go to a strip club(already happened). Then gets the virus. Forget even the whole "exponential growth" thing that many have continuously brought up. This immediately effects way more than "tens of people". Multiple players and personnel get it. It gets so bad, the season has to be cancelled. How many lives and dollars does this "one person" effect? What about the fringe prospect who's 28 and is at a make or break point in their career only to have the season get canceled? How about normal people, someone with symptoms who still goes to a supermarket? Teenager going to a beach party and then coming home to the family? There are indeed big ripple effects. There is a lot that is in ones control, and a lot that isn't. What is easier for YOU to control? Again, I totally agree about a lot of Trumps actions, or lack there of. But you also now are seeing the result of the people who have spent years crying wolf. They used up all their credibility complaining about Russia, the election, Ukraine, Ivanka's tweets, etc... I don’t think anyone blames Trump for the above directly. There is clearly an individual who failed to be responsible here at fault. But then you can ask the question? Why are strip clubs even open at this point with infection rates that high? Can you even keep a sports league open when infection are high? Base rate matter. People are going to do some dump stuff, if you allow them too, but that probably works out Ok with very few exceptionalities if infection rates rates low. In most states in the US, you are pretty sure to get the virus, if you some risky stuff, like holding a party with a Lot of friends at your house or going to bike classes at the gym, or having drinks in a bar.

I'm telling you, young people in 30 years will call me a murder for eating meat This could very well be correct and is all the more reason to eat all you can right now. Going to a BBQ place tonite, so I am doing my part.

I wish you and your family the best. I hope your daughter and your dad and your family are OK. It’s very difficult to contain COVID-19 when someone in the family has it. Also, thank your patience going through the study results. Brandolini‘s law is very real issue here.

where in NYC? I live in Burlington, VT. I remember the days when people (myself included) would line up for an hour or more to get it. Now, it's available at every supermarket, gas station, corner store, etc. here. I still grab some every once in a while, but there are so many other amazing IPAs here in VT. CT/ Burlington has some good stuff to drink. We recently stopped by at von Trapp in Stowe and Vermont Artisan Coffee and I loved Citizen Cider in Burlington when we visited a few month ago. Would be nice to meet for a cold one when this pandemics crab blows over. The sweet sound of music. They also make really good cheese if your interested. https://www.jasperhillfarm.com/von-trapp-farmstead I am a big Cheesehead so I will give it a try. We are again in this area again ( Conway, NH this time). Tonite, We are going to the Moat Mountain brewpub.

https://robintrack.net/symbol/KODK

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that? I am pretty sure the infection rates will be going down near term, but predicting the infection rates really didn’t help much predicting the stock market at all. I also think come fall and in particular post Thanksgiving, the Infection rates will start rising again most likely. However by then, the election Outcome is likely more important for the stock market.

Looks like insidertrading is crime number one: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/closer-look-kodak-chairmans-stock-173052759.html There are likely more. I can’t see how Kodak is most qualified to produce pharmaceutical ingredients. There are likely hundreds of more qualified entities.

Thanks on the color for HII. I heard the “metal bender” characterization of HII business in a MF industry focus podcast. I do think there is a bit of truth in it. I looked at HII too, but ultimately decided to buy the higher tech LHX and NOC instead. My portfolio is already “armed to the teeth” with holdings in RHM.DE, BAESY, NOC, GD and LHX and I simply don’t want to own them all.

Can you recommend some Fidelity funds? Thanks I like their health care funds. FSPHX is good.

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though. It's hard for me to add to MSFT when I have a cost base around $24. I was buying around 7-8x earnings back then. 35 seems like a kings ransom. I also owned some MSFT at $24 and sold at $40. That’s deep value investing.... Today’s MSFT equivalent could well be INTC, if management can turn it around. You would get the rising earnings and rising multiple Goldilocks. The rising multiple was responsible for half the returns with MSFT (eyeballing this roughly).

I think I just stick with Fidelity. LOL

As far as I know medicare is specifically prohibited from using this power through the Medicare Modernization Act. Thx, I wasn’t aware of this. I guess that would be a low hanging fruit to pick. Well theoretically ....

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths? Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative. You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks" I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase?? +1 Father’s Day and Memorial Day.

LLY stock price is down ~1% alongside other drug companies but generally speaking, life has been good for drug manufacturers recently , but not so good for consumers: https://www.consumerreports.org/drug-prices/the-shocking-rise-of-prescription-drug-prices/ Medicare has a lot of market power already, they just need to use it. They can take some clues from single payer countries allover the world on how to do it.

It’s not jut government deciding what to do, but also individuals and organizations. Flight trends are doen ~60% (These are search stats, but probably give a good idea). You can fly but most people don’t want to. https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

I don’t think the vaccine is binary at all. For one thing, it is likely not 100% effective and might only reduce the probability of infection by 50%. This might enough to get us to herd immunity (or close) by suppressing the ro when almost everyone takes it, but it won’t protect he individual who takes it reliably. Also, vaccines work less well on older people because their immune system is weaker and doesn’t respond as well. The main benefit for older people might be from the compounding effect that kicks in when everyone takes not when you personally takes it. It’s similar to a mask in a way. Now with the way things play out, I am not sure everyone would take the vaccine.There were already board members here who stated they won’t. Now you have anti vacciner and those that give a damn because there don’t consider themselves personally at risk (younger folks presumable) and this who don’t have access to health care and I can see that it will be difficult to get the population here vaccinated efficiently and thorough. Again, leadership will be essential once we have a vaccine to get this done and maybe give some incentives for people to vaccinate. It will be interesting but my guess is it won’t be binary.

Any idea why EQR appears to be the dog in the apartment Reit space? MAA seems to be the top performer.