Spekulatius

One thing that we have going for it is that there are a lot of test subjects to run the clinical trials in large numbers. That was one of the issues with SARS - we run out of test subjects due the SARS being ringfenced if I recall correctly. We don’t have the same issue here. :o

Resurrecting this, since I found this interesting interview with the inventor of the VIX. I didn’t know for example that index puts tend to be overvalued systematically since institutions buying them, but individual stock options are not: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/the-father-of-the-fear-gauge-says-he-feels-reassured-by-the-vix

I have found a IBKR simulation account useful to learn about the platform and do some trades that seems a bit more complex (foreign exchange, for sign stock). I also found a useful side benefit - you can use it to get real time quotes for foreign Exchanges For free so to speak. You just buy one share or lot of a stock in the foreign exchange and IBKR while not showing you real time quote, will show you the real time value, which is basically the same thing. Not a huge benefit, but I found it useful in some cases.

I thought about shorting it but in this market I am afraid to short even when, like on this case, on the face of it is overwhelmingly rational thing to do. The Price paid by Buffet for sure isn’t bullish for midstream companies ( OKE, WMB, EPD, ET, ENB etc). I think he paid less than any of the above is valued by the market with the possible exception of ET.

It wouldn't surprise me if D trades down a bit more. Looks like they sold decent assets cheap and they are cutting the dividend but this is for the D board. I think BRK got them this cheap because they were willing to buy the entire portfolio. There are more natural buyers for the pipelines (e.g., EPD for Questar and TC for Iroquois) but that would require a lot more work/time/regulatory hurdles. I think Dominion was will to trade this asset cheaply in return for a better ESG rating. I think BRK got these assets for a really good price (11-12x post tax earnings unlevered).

Based on Dominions roughly ~900M negative earnings revision due to the deal, Berkshire got the assets fairly cheap.

Here is some paper on the D614G mutation of the Virus, which seems to be more transmissible but not necessarily more severe in terms of how it plays out. This mutation seems to be 3-6x more transmissible (Due to higher prevalence of spike proteins on its surface) in lab experiments which should lead to a higher Ro. I think this was the mutation that Fauci was talking about recently. From an evolutionary POV, a variant of the Virus that is more transmissible will probably become dominant over time. This also may help explaining the ferocity of recent outbreaks in the US, besides the other factors that were mentioned before (holiday gatherings, opening high risk establishments like gyms, bars, lack of precautions). https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30817-5.pdf

I agree with many of these above things pointed out. 1) One thing we did is have our son eat the same food we eat from a very your age (~1 year old). First mixed in and starting from year 2, he pretty much ate what we ate. Even in restaurants, we rarely ordered kids means, but rather have him eat some of thrthe adult food, sometimes diluted down if it was spicy. 2) While we aren’t health nuts, certain things like coke/soda or other sugary drinks were never in our house. He could try to when he was at a birthday sorry with other kids but ended up not really being thet fond about it. Same with sugary stuff. 3) we always had precut apple slices, strawberries , raspberries around as snack. When our son wanted something. In between meals, that’s what he got. 4) My wife involved my son in cooking activities early on, starting with age 2. He learned how to prep food, salads and add the condiments he liked (feta cheese, olives , sautéed onions or whatever the preferred flavor at thet time as) and could to some extend create his own means, like when we amd homemade pizza, he could put the stuff he liked on it (sometime weird combinations but so be it). I think eating your one cooking really helps. 5) replace salty snacks with nuts, trail mix etc. Very easy. Again, my sample size is small (n=1) and what works for one kid, may not work for another, but the above (or some variation of it) might work in your case too. The earlier you start, the easier it is from our experience.

Greg, As you perhaps already know, I'm pretty observant to facts posted here on CoBF, and by all means much-much more observant how those so-called facts are processed and handled. So, to me, you are here just such a low-life cheat fiddling with your numbers that you post here on CoBF, dividing by four, instead of dividing by four-and-something! [ : - D] I hope everything is evolving well over time for your part, and yours! Take care [ : - ) ] [The rest that we're talking about here on CoBF is "just money" [and all that].] In short - now that I actually think about it - there is no capital gain comparable to become a parent again! [ : - ) ] Haha thanks John. Yes, things are well. Just another "period of adjustment" as seems to currently be the norm in the world. I'll do one more day, and then stop posting my daily meals. Just trying to emphasize how it is possible to eat well and cheap. One thing I have found very helpful is that going to the store daily and buying only really what I need for the days meals, greatly cuts back on waste/saves money. Previously, or when I go to Costco, its very easy to fall into a "I'll have some of this, and a bit of that, and oh, throw this in the cart too" mindset. Much of that stuff either goes bad or sits in the pantry collecting dust. Breakfast Eggs Benedict: Eggs 2.49 carton Hollandaise sauce 1.29 packet English muffins 1.50 a sleeve for store brand French toast for kids 2.79 for a box that lasts a week 6 coffees(I drink too much) K cup style 80 ct is $20 Apple juice 2.99 a jug, lasts 2 weeks Lunch Pierogi 3.79 a tray Sautéed Onion 1.99 lb Fish sticks for the kids 2.99 a box (although typically I catch the walleye and wife breads them, so free, unless you want to incorporate all the boating/fishing expenses, which will be an obnoxious add on) Dinner Skate Wings 7.99 lb Asparagus 1.99 a bundle capers 1.79 a jar couscous 1.99 a box pizza bites for the kids 1.99 a bag which lasts 2 meals I wouldn’t exactly rate fish sticks, French toast, pizza bites and apple juice as healthy for kids. We try to limit our grocery shopping to 1x a week, mostly trips to Costco. Sometimes we do a second trip to the Market basket to pick up some veggies etc. We used to go to a local farm and a local higher end butcher, but not that much this year because we now limit trips. I might check out the local farm again this year.

Except the government has shut down bars, restaurants and a few other things in several states. When you look at LA the Vast number of cases have been amongst Latino’s. Also note that directly adjacent wealthy neighborhoods like Pasadena are doing much better. http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/locations.htm This epidemic hasn’t a strong socioeconomic tilt, it prospers when it gets into the weaker parts of the underbelly in the society. That’s one reason why the US has been doing relatively poorly, besides the leadership issues. The US has a whole lot more soft underbelly than most states in Europe.

US at 33k with TX, CA and a few others still unreported for many counties. Good chance at 50k+ today. Perhaps 100k+ days coming soon given what you know will be rowdiness for 4th of July as well. Oh yea, and OK still hasn't reported the 6000 Trump attendees who undoubtedly have it. Should make for some trading opportunities. I added big time to my general market short into the close. There is almost no way the market opens green Monday, if past patterns are any indication and news flow is as expected. The guess on COVID-19 trends was correct, but the market nevertheless went up about 4% since you posted. It’s simple - if the COVID-19 numbers are bad the stay at home stocks are doing well and the market goes up. If the COVID-19 numbers are good, the economically sensitive and the “Davey Daytrader” airlines/ cruise ship stocks are up and the market is up as well.

It sounds like Gileadhas granted a royalty free license to some generic manufacturers so I don’t think it will be that big of a problem: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/gilead-remdesivir-licensing-deals/

Most of the cases occurred in a few counties in LA and Orange County. The outbreak occurred after the lockdown was eased and bars were allowed to open. From a few anecdotal reports that I have seen causes are: 1) family festivities (Father’s Day, Memorial Day), Those May explain the timing of the delayed wave. 2) bars Due to socioeconomic reasons, emigrants are more susceptible apparently and that is what we have seen in the LA area as well. LA always had more virus circulating than other areas but it seems like above factors caused the runway train wreck. Again, the virus isn’t political, it doesn’t care about red or blue. If it starts to circulate freely and you don’t hammer it early and hard, the exponential growth will have its way and the results are what we are seeing.

Here is my prediction for Texas, Arizona and Florida next week: Toilet paper will be sold out / hard to get. Same with guns most likely.

Oatmeal with Bacon. Yum!

It sounds like you made a transition from cigarbutt’s (Graftech) to growth stocks successfully. Congrats and good luck with your business.

More D-Fens: BAESY and a bit of LHX.

Are they marbled like this? Beef quality at Costco in Canada is excellent. If you want better you'd have to go to some super expensive specialized butcher. I've basically stopped buying from anywhere else. I don't see why it would be any different in the US. The only downside is that you have to buy like half a cow or something. But it looks like you're doing that already. We buy a lot of our meat at Costco too. The quality is excellent for the price. our local grocer Marketbasket Is a bit lower in quality, but they also keep prices low. We have seen a bit of upward pricing in March and April, but most of it has fallen back on line. Salmon , which we consume a lot, has gotten a bit cheaper to $7.99/ lbs. So we haven’t had too much of a problem. I did notice that some restaurants have raised their prices since COVID-19. We don’t eat out that much any more, so it doesn’t matter. The wineries I am a member of (or on the email list) have been pretty promotional, so that’s great too. I have enough in my basement to last a while anyways.

LoL Taleb Said that “Revenge is a moral obligation“ He also stated that “Time spent on revenge is never wasted” The best book on revenge ever written is “The count of Monte Christo”

Anectode: My wife told me that a Thai friend (with a Thai passport) has to quarantine for 2 weeks upon arrival in Thailand from the US. Apparently the US wasn’t on the quarantine list when he booked his travel. Good news is that the Thai government pays for his quarantine stay in a hotel and the food, because he is a Thai citizen ( he has an US passport as well). He did have a confirmation of a negative test COVID-19 Test result ( done 2 days before he left) but it didn’t matter.

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action. The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter. Florida and Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel. Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant. The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.

Technically speaking, he doesn’t really manage the pandemic any more, as has moved on to other things, most likely campaigning.

This is how they roll. Just look at the "scientists" they find that agree with them on climate change (while dismissing what is a consensus on the opposing side). Astounding level of delusion and/or intentional effort to mislead. Amusing that he says "lockdowns are too expensive". Now watch most of Europe move on from this and leave the U.S. in the dust while we struggle with our "isolate elderly" strategy and economy continues to take a long term beating even without lockdowns... If we follow the lead of folks like this, it will lead us to our doom. It’s not really a trade off. If Texas and Florida can’t get the Virus under control and the hospital run full, schools and Disneyland won’t open in fall. A crappy economy will be all but guaranteed.

Well you can always try to be nice first and have the option to become a jerk later. You can try it the other way around too, but then it usually doesn’t do much to be nice first or at least it will take a long time to get recognized.