Spekulatius

So I decided to open another COVID-19 related topic about vaccine with a poll. I hope this is not becoming a political discussion. My goal is to find out how people think about this from a risk/reward perspective, especially those with a medical background. My underlying thinking is that we will get a vaccine most likely from Moderna in November that uses a somewhat novel (and unproven) RNA Messenger approach and mot likely a second option of a traditional vaccine a few month later. I hope it adds value for readers and posters.

CVS - free one day or two day delivery in my area: https://www.cvs.com/content/delivery?eval=40A50HhmBxkBF+ajmu95bWe3dRQ6vEzpfwxceAlMKO8=&WT.mc_id=EM_RX_200905_All_the_Ways_to_Shop I do think that same day delivery is just a matter of time.

The answer is simple. (Almost ) Nobody does this (Tracking filings off 100 companies).

The US isn’t like Canada.

I took a look. It has a lot of data and it looks pretty good. Still, I won't pay for TIKR since M* for free is good enough for me. ::) Just MO though. I can also get M* for free through a library, but it’s a pain going through the library website and quite frankly, the M* user interface sucks. I would pay a little for convenience. Edit - I just realized that the Boston public library gives access to CapIQ. Cool!

Seems like a tough area to enter,I agree with Jurgis here. I know that CVS/ Walgreen/Amazon/ United Health all are looking at this problem from different angles. One thing I noticed that they claim to be tech driven with software, automation, robotics as the secret sauce, but none of the founders seams to have any expertise in these areas. Perhaps you politely ask them who is doing this work? Yours sincerely, The always skeptical Spekulatius.

I know this is totally irrelevant, but Rheinmetall has some pretty cool YouTube Videos demonstrating the Oerlikon 35mm cannon air defense system and other stuff. Here are two for nerds. I can’t wait for the consumer version to come out ;D FWIW, Rheinmetall has put up some impressive numbers with their defense business recently. I own a few shares.

Added to CVS and a tiny starter in HII.

For the commercial products, I just hope that a Tier including international stocks is available that is affordable for individual investors. I don’t need an API Or any fancy power tools. I honestly just look at a better version of yahoo finance.

I know you brought up SAP.TO (Saputo) and it looks interesting, as it is currently valued at a discount to its longer term metrics (EV/EBITDA, EV/ SALES). Looks like a GAARP stock which are hard to find nowadays. Is there any catalyst you can see near term? Looks like the shares have been hit hard by COVID-19 although the business seems to chug along quite well.

Shameless plug: This is my favorite website for fundamental research. The main thing has going for it is that all the information is in one place (valuation metrics, fundamental, balance sheet, income statement, CC transcripts) and most importantly, it works for most foreign stocks as well. While other websites like Koyfin have nicer charts, none of them offers information on foreign stocks, at least not in their Beta implementation.

Adding a bit of $CVS

People with RV‘s often don’t drive that much with them over the year. I doubt it makes a difference for gasoline or diesel consumption in the US, much less the world.

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that? Moving goal posts? We had 49,600 positive cases yesterday and 1105 death. By mid September, we are on track to be worse than Italy in terms of normalized death rate (death/ 1M population). 49,600 is much more than 20,000 objectively.

Bought a bit of BMRN this week. I have been following the company for a while and after the recent drop, the valuation seem Ok, even if the Hemophilia treatment won’t pan out. I like their focus on rare diseases and they are self funding and at this point, I think the Hemophilia drug is more like a free option.

Sold most of my BAESY this week. It is the defense co, I have the least conviction in and it did well recently after the dividend payment was announced (they had deferred it after COVID-19 happened).

If you run a fraud, you definitely want auditors that work shit. Or does it make sense for managers to pay auditors to uncover your fraud?

Sam Zell should lead by example and go into a crowded office every day. What he means is that somebody else takes the lead while He runs his empire from a yacht. It’s all Bs anyways. There will be plenty of people and jobs going back to the cities if rents and RE becomes cheap enough.

Actually, I think forced delisting of chinese companies from US stock exchanges could create up some interesting opportunities. Like what? Alibaba or Tencent. If they fall hard due to forced selling, I would be a buying in HK, if only for a swingtrade. Of course, that wouldn’t be a good private transaction, that would be a go chinese transaction.

Actually, I think forced delisting of chinese companies from US stock exchanges could create up some interesting opportunities.

I agree on Airbnb. I also think Nextdoor has a lot of potential growth possibilities and could become huge.

I listened a bit to the Author in a podcast (There are few out there ) and found his advice generic and useless, but each it‘s own.

I have heard and directly seen stories enormous wealth creating and distractions with stocks. I worked for a company that was later out by JDSU. Some folks I know who were just average hourly folks rode it all the way up and then down. Same with Nortel. A colleague I know worked for Lockheed and mentioned a guy who averaged doen into Lockheed stock when they got into trouble due to the Tristar (a commercial airplane ). He averaged all the down and got a 100 Bagger and that was back in the late 90‘s. I spent time on a message board in 2001 or so, where one poster went full bore Mirant (he thought it couldn’t fail) and he got wiped out when they declare bankruptcy. He later committed suicide supposedly. I guess there all kind of stories out there. One thing I know is that staying in the game is half the battle, at least. Index fund do ensure survival so that’s one of the reasons why they serve the vast majority quite well.

I believe we see a new FANG coming up every 5 years on average. Just look at Tik Tok. Instagram might have been a new FANG too, if Facebook wouldn’t have been able to buy it out. These platforms are not as durable as people think and popularity can be fleeting. I think GOOG and AMZN have built up various moats and may be more durable. Regarding ATOM, From my experience, Material tech companies have a hard time monetizing. I don’t think these are likely to become new Fangs. CRSP could be good, but with biotechs, it’s seems to me that generally the value of platforms is generally overestimated. It all depends on clinical efficacy and selecting the right target in the end, the technology or platform to do so can always get licensed in. In any case, Biotech or even medial technologies are heavily regulated by the FDA and don’t enjoy the fast scaling that internet business can show. On the positive side, the profit potential is enormous, so a lot of wealth can be created, but I think it’s difficult to get into the $100B league.

CEO is doing smack talk and uses profanities. CEO wears a wig. Company is incorporated in Florida or Nevada.