Spekulatius

Actually our purchasing power remains the same.

10-20 years? Why not 59 years? Up and to the right:

@dealraker thank you for the background stories. I have heard about Cathay bancorp before and in my opinion, these minority focused banks can offer interesting investment opportunities, but the devil is always in the detail and most of the detail have to do how top management conducts the business. One of the things I am struggling with is and that prevents me often from holding LT is that when the "story changes". I recent example of this is FB/META of course where the things have deteriorated substantially at this point. ideally, you want to catch unfavorable development, before the crash the stock, but what is too early and what is too late to make a decision. For example, I recently sold CVS. I bought CVS in late 2020 based on the fact that it was cheap and they have some tailwinds in terms of vaccination (brings people in the store). I also liked how Karen Lynch has led Aetna (CVS health insurance business acquired a few years early). Post acquisition, CVS took a few years to "digest" Aetna and delever but pure math suggest that they could start buybacks in 1-2 years and raise the dividend, which generally is likely something shareholders appreciate with a stock that was in the doghouse for while. Long story short, this played out pretty much as expected, CVS executed well in the epidemic, health insurance kept growing and they raised the divdend and started buybacks. then all of a sudden they seemed on the hunt for new acquisitions of Signify health (which surprised me, but trusted management's judgement), but once they allegedly started to circle KANO health (a SPAC no less with a questionable business model), I started to question what is going on here. To keep this short, I sold my CVS but first the KANO purchase didn't occur (yet?) and I do wonder, if I don't give management not enough slack here. Then on the other hand one sees stuff like FB doing a Metaverse and regret a longer leash. This is probably too long of a diatribe here on a specific topic, but it's a real problem if you want to hold LT and there probably are a few differing perspectives out there. I have had a few LT holdings in my investment carrier but I think overall in 75% of the cases within 5 years something happens to most of my holdings that significantly changes my view on the business for the worse or in some lucky cases, the valuation far exceeds what I consider fair value, which leads me to sell. So my average holding period is probably only a few years (weighted by money invested) and even shorter based on average holding period for all positions (some are just trades).

There are likely multiple causes, but lousy productivity is a real drag on economy. Think about this, it means that less goods and services get produced per unit labor hour and more cost per unit labor hour. That's one reason for inflation right there. Fixing this would go a long way to reduce inflation.

I have been wounding about the lousy productivity number shown in FRED since 2021 as well. The fact that productivity is up in the manufacturing sector and down in the service sector suggest that WFH may be a culprit.

Exactly - the rare earth metals are actually quite abundant in the earth crust. I bet there are better deposits than the Chinese have - we just need to develop them. The Chinese were just the first to recognize the importance and put effort in developing those mines.

Not even close, because you could leave.

LOL, feels like twilight zone: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/shanghai-disney-shuts-over-covid-visitors-unable-to-leave.html

The book is an anti war classic written by Erich Maria Remarque written in 1928 about a somewhat stylized experience of a German conscript in WW1. It's one of those books that you read in school or later when you grow up in Germany. Neither the book nor the movie has a Band of Brother vibe.

The cinematography and acting in this adoption is great, but why did they complete change the storyline including the iconic ending of the novel? I don't get it. Worth watching, but could have been a masterpiece.

The energy industry is playing with fire here taunting Potus. It makes no sense from a business perspective. There is only downside from doing this. They should lay low and collect their cash or make some sensible proposals to solve the NG shortage in Europe etc. What do you think will happen when Republicans get into power and energy prices stay high, which you I think is quite likely outcome. Who then will be blamed? What will happen next?

Sold $CVS. Lost confidence after they were rumored to circling $CANO

US / Blinken‘sview on Taiwan:

This cartoon is actually pretty good:

I would argue that the FANG are too large to be Nifty Fifties. Xerox etc never were that large relative to the economy back in the 1960's than the FANG are right now. it's the law of large numbers more than anything else that is a problem for the FANGS, not so much the valuation (valuation was the main issue with the Nifty Fifties back then).

Economy seems fine. 2.6% growthin Q3 2-2022. The last two quarters contraction was clearly a result of lapping tough comps (6-7% growth in 2021):

China is likely complicit and knew about the impending attack. Putin met Xi on February 4 supposedly for the Olympic games when Putin was already amassing his army on the Ukraine border. I am guessing Xi told Putin to wait until the Olympic games are over (20 February) and then Russia attacked on February 24. I don't believe in coincidences on these matters. Now, I am not sure if Xi Jinping approved of this war, but he sure didn't do anything to prevent it either. I think they liked the idea that Putin tries his luck first and then decided to let him hang dry when things went sour and claimed to have nothing to do with the matter whatsoever.

Russia and China are linked. First of all, they are allies (even though it may be more like the Stalin Rippentropp pact) and second China is surely watching how Russia is doing in Ukraine and even more so how the West responds to it. I would bet that nobody gave a damn about Ukraine, China would get their preparations for an invasion of Taiwan into overdrive -in fact they may have done it already. China was just a bit smarter to let the Russians go first.

It‘s a war. Russians do what they always have done. Give Ukraine weapons to eliminate the threat - defense system, but also long range weapons to take out the launch sites wherever they are (Crimea). Get back to the Iran regime responsible for the drones and Republican guard as well with targeted sanctions as well. I didn’t really know that the Republican guard is not just elite army (and terror organization ) but sort of works like commercial and industrial organization woven deep into the Iranian economy. Sounds a bit like Putins Oligarch cleptocracy/oligarchy system.

The next step is China sanctioning the US in retaliation to the US semiconductor sanctions enacted right before the CCP Congress.

I think Peter Zeihan's view is correct, except I don't think the US (or any other nation) can go it alone. In the future, you have to pick sides. The US is going to be a huge trade block with North America (CA, Mexico, US), Europe, Australia and Japan, Taiwan etc) and then there is the "Axis" with China, Russia, North Korean, Cuba Venezuela (?) and Iran trying to lure some more in via Belt and Road. there will be iron curtains between the "Axis" and the Western block. Not sure where Saudi Arabia,. India, Brazil & South America, and others like South east Asia and Africa will go. Trade between these blocks will still continue, but is purely opportunistic and rules can change or trade in parts could be shut down on a moments notice. This will not globalism's in terms of trade and market access as we know it any more.

The average retail investor account probably has (or had) $1500 in meme stocks, tesla call, crypto s etc. I think the median return is much more meaningful and probably close to the index returns.

I don t think the Fed is looking at the stock market at all at this point. They are looking at credit markets (as they are obviously tightening), but as long as credit risk spreads are relatively moderate, I don't see much of an issue. The bigger issue is international and especially EM's as indicated by the USD rising against pretty much any currency. Looks at this: https://www.etftrends.com/disruptive-technology-channel/arkk-takes-in-nearly-half-billion-in-september-flows/ I don't think private &retail investors are panicking, the stock market selling is probably from institutional investors rebalancing.

i think the stock market really disliked the Neo Maoist vibes from this Congress. Then there was the selection of leadership for each Politburo: https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3196994/hong-kong-stock-index-slumps-below-16000-mark-new-13-year-low-chinas-leadership-reshuffle-leaves-no?module=live&pgtype=homepage They keep on saying the right things from time to time (also stronger action against monopolies may not be that great for Alibaba and the likes )to calm things down, but the signaling toward a new Maoist era isn’t really bullish for equity investors by any stretch of imagination. The simple message from the CCP Congress is that expect more of the same of what you have been seeing lately as long as Xi is around (at least).

I agree on declaring them a terrorist state. De facto they are already. Trying to hit civilian infrastructure has a poor record of changing war outcome as well. The Russians will most likely lose Kherson and a significant part of their army very soon. A countermeasure against the drone swarm will be found as well, possibly by jamming GPS signals or something like cannon based defense systems. The Iranians don’t do themselves any favors either. What little they gain by helping Russia will be absolutely overshadowed by increasing sanctions and getting deeper in the terrorist state stigma and international isolation. Really stupid from their perspective. The mobilization brings through war from something to watch on TV to something that starts to affect lots of families and I think quite soon , almost everyone will know someone who get killed or injured in the Ukraine. How much this changes Public opinion, we do not know, but I think it will change the perception for some people about their government.