Spekulatius

Yes those two things (travel restrictions and trade) issues are unrelated, but that doesn’t mean their effects can’t compound. The failure of the trade talks very likely will cause some shortages for the Uk, as goods get either stuck at the borders or diverted to other markets as seems to be the case with lumber and likely either goods. I also think that London as a financial center will have a much diminished role in the future.

Aren’t you conflating two entirely different things? And why take a German view on how prepared Britain is, out of interest? Not that I have a particularly strong view... The BBC is not the German view. However, I am German and have relatives living there. I have been following this since Brexit 2016 using a variety of sources and it looks like a train wreck to me.

No idea how to get this, but in my opinion, the most rational explanation would be higher equity allocation for institutional and individual investors because bond yields have been dropping so an 60/40 portfolio becomes 70/30 etc.

I just had a talk with my brother (who lives in Germany) and it looks like the EU just nailed the door on the UK: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55385768 Another fact that I wasn’t aware of. He deals with lumber (trade on a large scale) and they so t deliver to the UK any more because it is simply not “worth the trouble”. Apparently no one really knows the conditions for imports anymore in this specific business to decided to to elsewhere as there is enough demand for lumber anyways. a the same is true for other commodities and fungible goods apparently. Looks like the Uk is on the brink of a disaster here as they seem totally unprepared after more than 4 years.

Some negative factors: 1) Trump tax cuts could be reversed. this would be a 10% hit to valuation theoretically (give or take) 2) Interest rates rising. (They have moved up already since May) 3) Inflation could go up quickly once economy opens up more which also correlates with 2). The Fed May not do much, but treasuries would move up nevertheless. 4) Biden is less fixated by stock market than Trump, which could transcedent down to Fed decisions. 5) External threads like the latest large scale cyberattack have been downplayed but can we ignore this. Tensions with China, Iran, North Korea also could come into play. Both Iran a d NK are probably close to having a nuclear bomb right now. 6) Brexit (probably doesn’t matter for the US too much but will for the UK and Europe). 7) As cardboard said, it is the bus you don’t see coming that is going to hit you.

I could well see a scenario where the economy will recover and the stocks will go down because of higher interest rates. Actually interest rates for treasuries have already been slowly rising - they are back to late February/ early March levels and may go up further. Or perhaps stocks go down just because people have other things to do than gambling the stock market.

Interesting enough, interest rates have been moving up. We are basically back to where we were late February/ early March.

Well, at least beer, wine and liquor sales are healthy recently:

A lot of timelines have been thrown around - the last date for conclusion discussed here was 12/9. I don’t know how you can get 100% confidence that something will happen between now and mid January. My own assessment of the probability would be less than 50% for sure. I also think that all those leaks ( sitting on his desk waiting to be signed ) are probably worthless.

Nailed it! I agree as well (probably a first in this board). It is quite possible they you can buy the preferred with a good risk reward after a deal is announced. That’s sort of why I am watching this somewhat. Right now, it’s just a crapshoot and time is running out. If nothing happens in the next 3 weeks, then it will likely take another 4 years to waiting. And why would it happen in the last 3 weeks when they couldn’t get anything done in the last 4 years?

Unless something happens in the next 3 weeks, it’s over, imo. I would argue it’s likely over already since nothing happened for 4 years, so why now?

Added a bit of 9988.HK (BABA) in HK overnight.

Interesting perspective, as always. (?) It's difficult to build on this from an analysis or investment point of view but there's the following question: who's going to pay for all this? The answer (which has been wrong so far) has been increased taxation but what the fukk do i know? MMT means we pay it forward.

It's a very respectable attitude from your side. Agreed. I hope sampr01 will get a fair outcome and kudos for posting here about his situation. There is a tendency to only see people swimming victory laps so to speak (especially this year) but the reality is often different.

I agree that Picasso was an extremely well regarded poster and appears to be great stock picker. However, when you are responsible to invest other people’s money, risk management is even more important than being a good stock picker. The complaints are dating back to 2014 based on the Finra site. The following excerpt (from a lawfirm representing claimants ) is quite interesting: If true, this is more than just a trade going bad, it would be unresponsible gambling with other people’s money. https://frankowskifirm.com/stockbroker-dennis-phillip-ayre-named-as-respondent-in-1-4-million-arbitration-claim/ https://frankowskifirm.com/dennis-ayre-continues-to-rack-up-customer-complaints/

Sold HDG.AS and ATTO in my tax deferred accounts. I kept the positions in my taxable accounts.

NIC service business was similar to $LDOS. It can be regarded as an outfit to rent out bodies (or perhaps workers with security clearance). The tech (if there is any) isn’t owned but the company itself, but by the agencies. This is different than Palantir. They run a much higher gross margin business where Palantir owns the tech.

I guess the fix for NYC is lower prices and lower rents. Families will move out and younger folks will backfill. Of course the solution with lower rents isn’t really great for landlords, but it could end up making NYC a more interesting and vibrant place. There is always opportunity after some wreckage.

I can see the case of an utility coming in and offering broadband when there isn’t really any competitive offering, like is the case in many rural areas. In those cases there are even subsidies to offering broadband. Some of the smaller telecoms like NUVR do a pretty nice living getting their Capex subsidized via A- CAM funding and I can’t see why they wouldn’t allow the electric utility to do something along the same lines to provide broadband to customers as well. I guess some rules would need to be established to prevent double dipping of the utility but I can’t see why there couldn’t be a workable solution, After all every household pretty much gets electricity unless it is totally of the grid. So why not offering broadband to underserved communities as well through the utility?

NOC sells their service business for $3.4B: https://investor.northropgrumman.com/news-releases/news-release-details/northrop-grumman-sell-federal-it-and-mission-support-business This continues the portfolio restructuring that has been ongoing with NOC. They spent $7.8B for Orbital Science in 2018 and this worked out very well. I think it makes sense for NOC to sell the weaker IT service business. They can do this non dilutive for earnings buy using the proceeds to buy back shares and reducing debt (which increased with the Orbital Science acquisition).

Plastic surgery?

PDLI

I guess no one here remembers the late 60‘s Hippie generation. The Hippies were far more radical and socialist than the Millenials are now and look at where we are.

AZO

Going after FCC subs for rural broadband - ~$900M: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/spacex-starlink-wins-nearly-900-million-in-fcc-subsidies-auction.html