Spekulatius

My guess is hospitalizations will be the key statistic. If cases spike and hospitalizations do not then little will change. If hospitalizations increase to uncomfortable levels then politicians will be forced to do more. Just like in March / April. Case count increase to me is a red flag. Hospitalizations, which usually take 2-3 weeks to show up will be the call to action (should they get uncomfortably high). The experience in the coming months will likely be very different than in March / April. We have learned much about the virus that will inform actions. Most importantly, the most vulnerable understand the risks and therefore should be much more prepared. So i do not expect severe outcomes (deaths) to come close to levels seen in March/April. I agree on hospitalization driving the decisions. #of infections is not a good metric since it scales with number of cases and death are a trailing number. Anyways, a positivity rate of 38% is shocking 7 month into this epidemic and indicates that the folks making decisions on health matters are sleeping at the wheel and should be booted, imo. That’s my opinion, but thats for the SD voters to decide.

+1 For those who like Thinkpads, this is a pretty good deal: https://slickdeals.net/f/14460524-lenovo-thinkpad-x13-gen-1-laptop-ryzen-7-pro-13-3-1080p-16gb-ddr4-128gb-ssd-833-50?page=7#comments You can go through Rakuten and get another 10% cash back off. I ordered one today to replace my 2012 Dell XPS13 which is running on Windows 7 and while going strong, some software (TurboTax) is just not going to work any more.

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%? https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

This shouldn’t be a problem. I personally would roll it over into Fidelity and Schwab and maybe from there into IB later, because I don’t trust those guys at IB to get these things right. If there is any issue, you may have a hard to to get them resolved. With Fidelity or Schwab, I don’t think you will have issues. Disclosure : I have IRA’s with both Fidelity and IB.

I assume a central bank sponsored e-currency would run with a ledger at a de trial bank? that’s the only way this would make sense I assume. Again, if so, why is the point of a bank collecting deposits? There is none, at least not with zero interest rates. The banks then would simply lend from the central bank directly and maybe that simply defines what a bank is going forward. lending still requires expertise in most cases, but such a system also could encourage direct lending from a central bank. The central bank would have much more information than it has now, since it had the ledger of any transaction. This would weaken the status of banks, credit record agencies and all sorts of financial intermediaries, money launderers etc.

In the United States, the first part of that planning process should be a diagnostic blood test in advance to see who is already carrying antibodies. So, create a two-stage vaccination process where people can apply in November to be amongst the earliest vaccinated, but as part of the deal, they go for a blood test in advance to see whether they have antibodies and actually have any imminent need for the vaccine. Then, once the initial surge of demand is satisfied, you have stage 2 where anyone can present themselves at a vaccination station and obtain the vaccine on demand, whether they need it or not. Today, we are at 8.6m officially diagnosed cases in the US. So, how many true cases are there, maybe 85 million? That would suggest that already there is 27 or 28 percent of the population that likely has at least temporary immunity and does not urgently need the jab. If the first jab does not actually occur until January 1, and if there are a modest 50k/day of officially diagnosed new cases in the US, there would be a total of 12 million official cases on January 1, which would likely represent perhaps 120 million people who have already had covid, or about 35 percent of the population. Given the extent of covid spread to date, it is entirely possible that only ~100 million vaccinations would be required to drive the R0 below 1. Other countries, such as Canada, where the spread has been less pronounced will require a much more comprehensive vaccination program. SJ I don’t know if your 10x multiplier (tested positive vs actual infected). I have seen multipliers of 4-5x based on studied in Germany that may not apply here. As testing gets better , this multiplier comes down. As for antibody tests, they are somewhat costly and certainly will cost more than a vaccine. Frontline workers don’t get tested for antibodies either, so who exactly will bear this cost? I don’t think the capacities for widespread antibody testing is there either. I don’t think antibody test results will play a role on how the vaccine is distributed. I think the last large scale study in the US was the dialysis users' study, which showed that 9.3% of dialysis patients had antibodies during July. In mid-July, there was 3.7m, official cases in the US, which was about 1.1% of the population. So, the most recent major study would suggest 8 or 9 to 1 ratio for a sub-population of people who are more vulnerable than average and who should have been well motivated to avoid covid. But, I would agree that presumably the 10-to-1 comes down as testing becomes more prevalent. I suspect that you are correct that diagnostic antibody tests are unlikely to be used in a vaccination programme. The first 20 or 30 million vaccinations in the US will be in hot demand from the most vulnerable populations, healthcare workers and first responders and then demand will slow as less vulnerable people will be less motivated. Unfortunately, it is likely that 30% or 40% of those initial vaccinations that will be in very high demand will be "wasted" on people who are already immune by virtue of having already had covid without even realising it. The cost of the "wasted" vaccinations in dollars will be pretty minimal, but the frustration of those who are anxiously awaiting their turn will be palpable (as it was during the H1N1 vaccination process). SJ I have some doubts about hot demand. The polls seems to indicate a fair amount of skepticism about COVID-19 vaccine. The Moderna vaccine has a new mechanism of action, so for me it is the largest question mark. Perhaps a lot of people go the “you try it first “ route? I would take the vaccine and my wife too, if it become available and assuming it has been properly vetted. I think about the worst thing Trump could do is get an emergency authorization for the vaccine if it’s clear that the FDA has gone though the complete vetting process yet and we don’t have complete confidence in data. I follow Merck closely and while they are behind, they have very good vaccine tech and working on an orally administered vaccine thwt is also supposed to work well for older people. Older people unfortunately have a weaker immune response and that it why vaccine often don’t work as well for them. This is unfortunate, because especially with COVID-19, older people need protection most. So it will be interesting to see a subgroup analysis for the 65 year + age cohort to understand if the vaccine even works for them. Lots of decisions to be made and ai feel the discussion about this should have started already.

I think there is always something to learn, if a stock does something vastly different than expected. I think shorting on valuation alone is a bad idea generally speaking, there has to be something else to make a stock a short. I mentioned this before, but ai gave up on shorting be sure for me, it doesn’t seem to be worth the brain damage and seem to add risk rather than reducing it. The only thing I would short is going short an index, but even in this case, I would rather buy a put, because with put, I make a bet with limited downside. Right now, puts are not really affordable which is why I don’t own any. Sometimes a good process produces a bad outcome, but I felt the VIC writeup to fairly weak. Is it just me, but I feel the quality of VIC write ups has really gone down the tubes the last two years or thereabouts.

In the United States, the first part of that planning process should be a diagnostic blood test in advance to see who is already carrying antibodies. So, create a two-stage vaccination process where people can apply in November to be amongst the earliest vaccinated, but as part of the deal, they go for a blood test in advance to see whether they have antibodies and actually have any imminent need for the vaccine. Then, once the initial surge of demand is satisfied, you have stage 2 where anyone can present themselves at a vaccination station and obtain the vaccine on demand, whether they need it or not. Today, we are at 8.6m officially diagnosed cases in the US. So, how many true cases are there, maybe 85 million? That would suggest that already there is 27 or 28 percent of the population that likely has at least temporary immunity and does not urgently need the jab. If the first jab does not actually occur until January 1, and if there are a modest 50k/day of officially diagnosed new cases in the US, there would be a total of 12 million official cases on January 1, which would likely represent perhaps 120 million people who have already had covid, or about 35 percent of the population. Given the extent of covid spread to date, it is entirely possible that only ~100 million vaccinations would be required to drive the R0 below 1. Other countries, such as Canada, where the spread has been less pronounced will require a much more comprehensive vaccination program. SJ I don’t know if your 10x multiplier (tested positive vs actual infected). I have seen multipliers of 4-5x based on studied in Germany that may not apply here. As testing gets better , this multiplier comes down. As for antibody tests, they are somewhat costly and certainly will cost more than a vaccine. Frontline workers don’t get tested for antibodies either, so who exactly will bear this cost? I don’t think the capacities for widespread antibody testing is there either. I don’t think antibody test results will play a role on how the vaccine is distributed.

Yes....I agree....that is what is meant by "Herd immunity" according to Barrington declaration....not lack of infections but the disease becoming slowly less severe. We are already seeing this. Below is the CDC updated hospitalizations this week. Early introduction of vaccine, especially for vulnerable along with therapeutics would help. 1-On the 3rd wave that the CDC data does not show really well, at least at this point. Just like in early July, when the CDC did not show well for a while the forming 'second' wave because of lag-related issues (lag in reporting updated data and lag inherent to the sequential case-hospit-death that tends to occur over time). It looks like the "third' wave will be smaller. Compare: and https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized 2-"Early introduction of vaccine, especially for vulnerable along with therapeutics would help." This benign and perhaps obvious on a first level basis statement is, in fact, a fascinating statement and may explain part of the misunderstanding implied by the Barrington Declaration. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, the vaccines are unlikely to be distributed widely for many months. Also, the earlier forms of the vaccines may be the most at risk for temporary immunity. So, vaccines are likely to be insufficient, in terms of demand, for a while and an interesting discussion will occur concerning who will or should get it first. Before Covid, when discussing scarce vaccine availability and herd immunity for a population, a predominant school of thought suggested to distribute the valuable vaccine not to the 'vulnerable' population but to frontline workers and other individuals who could act as super-spreaders and to use other 'social' measures to keep the vulnarables protected. ^ I hope for priority distribution for frontline workers as it would concern my wife. I think distribution of the vaccine (the three W’s - who, when, where) should be an extremely high priority for the government and it should be planned upfront before the vaccine is available. FWIW, there is very little specific testing for front line workers here and I suspect it is for liability reason and because they want to avoid widespread quarantines for frontline workers, in case someone tests positive. The testing for patients appears to be quite comprehensive.

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something. Yea, I definitely brought it on myself. I dont care to look back on the posts, but this was/is a pure valuation short/hedge. I added a bit more today around $800. I've got a stop at $1050 and will cost myself about 250 bps if hit. I actually did a reasonably amount of work on this some years back when the stock was trading around $175. Figured upside on a sale was $4.5B or so. Was long for a little bit. Hard to imagine Truly is a $6B brand, but who knows in todays market. I dont think this is a "great" company. But its definitely not a bad one. In relation to one of your other posts on shorting, Chanos often mentions the 3 Fs. Frauds, failures, and fads. Ive found the first two are reliable, but fads are highly subjective. One of my best longs in recent years was Sodastream, a 7x trade(left a bunch of upside on the table selling too soon) even though many thought it was an obvious fad. Fads are fads until theyre not. Will probably be the case here. Just another case of "dont short on valuation alone". An acquaintance sent me an email today on this. Made a rather funny remark about how given the market, you'd think the only thing people did during lockdown was eat Wingstop and drink Sam Adams... OK, this is rubbing it a bit in, but SAM popped another cork on Friday +18.85% So how go shorts go about risk management? Disclosure: No position I did buy a caseworker Trulia Lemonade for “research purposes” and because my wife wanted to try it and we both don’t like it and consumption is slow. Taste seem artificial and somewhat metallic (for lack of better terms). I think we will stick with Mike’s hard lemonade despite the calories.

Aren’t the e-currencies much more disruptive to banks? After all, if I can store my digital currency in any type of digital wallet, I don’t need a checking account any more. Assuming the Digital wallet has transactional features, what would the point of a checking account be, especially with banks offering no interest ? How would the banks getting deposits in this scenario?

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside. When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society... The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much. Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits? Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months These days, the way to make money is: bad news -> stimulus -> stonks go up (and even good news as long as fed doesn’t tighten) The virus has gotten less deadly as we’ve matured our treatment modalities: proning, remdesivir, antibody cocktails, steroids, avoiding things that don’t work (HCQ,etc) but a third wave would drive a population already conditioned to a deadlier covid to reduce consumption/activity. And having a virus that can kill your relatives and/or spending time in the ICU/hospital with a respiratory virus is not exactly enticing even if you survive. So while stonks may go up, the fear is that the real economy will get hit. As they say, an ounce of prevention is worth....but it’s too late now for that anyway. I agree on the importance of stimulus - it’s is more important than the outcome of the election. As Long as the WFH plays do well, the general stock Market will do well too, especially QQQ, even if a lot of other sectors are ailing.

That about sums it up: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/fauci-says-trump-hasnt-attended-white-house-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-in-several-months.html

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again. Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

TRV as it reached my price target.

The Swiss Kanton “Schwyz” went from “doing great” to “ Oh crap!” Within 2 weeks. Cause is apparently a super spreader Jodler event (Swiss folks singing) with 600 attendants. Rapidly rising and constraint hospital capacity are the result. Schwyz is a relatively sparsely populated Kanton in central Switzerland.

^ Interesting papers. The paper below seems to indicate that excess death were somewhat undercounted. Granted Alzheimer victims don’t have a great prognosis anyways, but still:

No. I did not. I am a cheese lover, so I suspect I missed something.

Yes, this is very true unfortunately as whatever is posted in the politics section inevitably spills over. I have seen at least one investment board ( investorvillage.com ) getting totally destroyed by political posts. That said, the separate section for politics contains the damage somewhat.

Van Trapp from VT if you can get it. Sierra Nevada also has an Octoberfest that’s pretty good. I do drink the Sam Adams Octoberfest which is easy to get where I live. From the German Oktoberfest beers, I prefer the Hacker-Pschorr and the Löwenbräu, but they are much harder to get.

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads. I'd say that you are correct about Feb/March. The discussions in Feb/March had already frequently become contentious, with a few posters directing personal attacks and insults at others who held different points of view. At that stage, the personal attacks were usually of the nature of questioning the other person's intelligence or numeracy (ex, person X is too stupid to understand exponential growth). The reality was that there were intelligent and numerate posters on both sides of most issues, but their views were driven by differing assumptions about a wide variety of known-unknowns. My memory was that the political rancour was a little later in June or July, when most of Europe and Canada had their situation well in hand after a lengthy lock-down, but Sweden and the US had a growing mess on their hands. At that stage there were frequent posts lamenting the situation in the US and frequent questions about whether America was great yet and #winning was occasionally used. It was a bizarrely political discourse where every bad outcome was attributed to particular politicians. The venomous political statements related to the covid situation in the US seem to have abated somewhat as numerous countries in Europe have lost control of their situation. SJ The trends in Europe show how quickly this can run out of control. 40k cases today in France is pretty bad. They have started curfews , but this time, they are more targeted towards hoy spots. I think a total lockdown of the economy is unlikely in Europe as it is in the US. US trends are pretty lousy too - rising cases almost everywhere, but that’s not driving the response - hospitalization is and it’s rising too. These COVID-19 trends have persistence, once they start rising, they keep rising for a while: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized These hospitalization rates at a local level will drive a response at a local level. We will find out if muscleman herd immunity theory is correct, but I think not. Too many population groups haven’t seen the virus yet. I live in MA ~35 miles out of Boston and no way there is any herd immunity here. Just 10 positive cases in a town of 3300 with no case since May (we have town stats here and testing a availability is pretty good). Other towns around me are similar , but there are also hot spots in between (mostly blue collar communities) with way higher rates too. I expect rising rates and hospitalizations, but hope for the best. Thanksgiving and inevitable travel and family gathering could well ignite another surge. We know from Europe that family events and private meetings/house parties are a major cause of spread and those are hard to control.

You say you understand but the poster above didn't really explain it. Inventory went down, meaning it was sold and hence generated cash. The carrying value of the inventory would be expensed through COGS. The *total* cash flow generated from the sale is really the gross margin (from your income statement) plus the carrying value decrease (change in inventories). I thought the explanation was fine. Now do inventory write downs. An inventory write down is a non event for the cash flow statement.

They have a nice asset in Wyoming, which is cost-advantaged relative to synthetic production, and cost-advantaged relative to other trona miners. However, I don't trust management. Didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out they inflating annual production through deca rehydration, and eventually production would drop off significantly. The manner in which they disclosed this made them appear either dishonest or incompetent. Happy to chat more about this one on a dedicated thread for CINR. Read the same VIC pitch and I'm in too. Lets start one :) This entity still has 50% IDR’s. Automatic pass for me.

The Covid-19 turbocharged WFH trend provides an option for people, who want well paying jobs who formerly were only available in a city, to move elsewhere and do the same job. Some pole will like this and take this option and some don’t because they prefer to live in a City anyways. How these net movements work out is any wine guess, but it seem certain that there is a net migration out of large expensive cities. The places these people move to (suburbs) will see stronger home appreciation and large apartment buildings in large cities will probably be less desirable.

CBOE (add ) for me.