Spekulatius

Medical staff infection are becoming more and more an issue. We will run out of medical workers before we run out of hospital capacity, hence the need to vaccinate medical workers as well as nursing home staff first.

And then think about whether fecal diseases (typhoid, cholera, etc) are spread by farts. Farts work well to enforce social distancing though.

Why are the alternatives horrible? The most straightforward alternative is to open an account with a reputable low cost asset manager like Fidelity or Schwab and cost average into low cost index funds like (SP500, QQQ or total stock market index). That’s easy to do for everyone. If handholding is required, I think Fidelity and Schwab actually do a pretty good job with their advisors for a relatively low fee. those are alternatives that I have and would advise my friends.

The story of how BioNtech developed the COVId-19 vaccine: https://www.ft.com/content/c4ca8496-a215-44b1-a7eb-f88568fc9de9 I didn’t know this, but Pfizer was not involved in the early stages, but assisted with manufacturing and running the trials. The research was funded by the German government (375M Euro) and of course a large order (if the vaccine would be approved ) by the US government played a role too.

Why is this stupid? The drug apparently has not produced any tangible benefit in their large study and it is expensive and complex to administer. They are not the first ones to bring this up either. The WHO supports more trials but so far, it does not seem very effective, if at all.

Yeah, Liberator is worth checking out. i like the Visual Style, but I do think that the storytelling falls a bit flat. If you do want to watch a really good WW2 swords, try “Generation war” on Netflix: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_War For something lighthearted and seasonal (Xmas), “Dash and Lilly” is well scripted and entertaining.

Interesting comparison of the two mRNA vaccine front runners (Moderna, Pfizer-BioNtech): https://twitter.com/biohazard3737/status/1329131035540516865?s=21 FWIW, that @biohazard3737 fellow is worth a follow.

Sold down a little more BNTGY.

I also bought MRK in the mid seventies and think it is a classic GARP stock, above average quality (business, balance sheet) for a below market multiple. MRK seems like a straightforward buy for Buffet holding. He has avoided Pharma so der because he was unsure about valuing their product pipelines. I guess that is why he takes the basket approach.

Side effects have been an issue with the RNA vaccines, I believe, so the FDA will look out for these when thee trial results are published. The standard vaccines (Adenovirus etc) have a better known side effect profile.

Another letter from Bronte. I put this here because he talks a lot about behavioral aspects of the Coronavirus as well as investing implications. I understand many here don’t like him, but I find his reasoning very sound: http://files.brontecapital.com/amalthea/Amalthea_Letter_202009.pdf

Pretty good article explaining why people do what they do: https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/iowa/surging-virus-cases-get-a-shrug-in-many-midwestern-towns/article_b1022b5a-d490-5b1f-b99e-58f9911ebce3.html

^ That’s a very good analysis. Thank you for taking the time to lay it out.

Ross812’s charts are interesting, but I think some of the narrowing gap is just the result of equity valuations tanking (in the 1920’s and in the 1970’s) not because the people at the bottom were doing better. That’s not exactly the kind of mean reversion we want. I think some government interventions like trying to make the education system better and create more equity there might help. The higher minimum wages have helped somewhat (those get decided at the state level) despite what some persist say - the higher unemployment due to higher labor cost just hadn’t happened. I don’t see more regulation helping in general though. I do green overall that social mobility is the bigger (and probably only real ) problem, not wealth inequality. Of course both are somewhat connected to each other, but it seems to me that social upwards mobility has been waning over the years in the US, but also in Europe.

How much does it matter, unless you own UK stocks? The Uk is a pretty inconsequential trade partner for the US and more important for the EU, but it’s not that important either. Boris Johnson is hard to read and seemingly unable to make decisions. Maybe his wavering is some sort of 3D chess or reflects his inability to make decisions which may become an even bigger deal with Cunningham (his advisor and maybe more) gone. I do agree some sort of emergency skinny deal is likely, if there is a hard Brexit. I don’t think it matters for most of us. I do think that London as a financial center will be much less important going forward than in the past.

Bosch is Great. Many seasons to watch. One I am currently enjoying mainly for the style is “The Liberator”. Its a hybrid/ graphic novel visual style and tells the story of a WW2 unit: Amazon has a series in a somewhat similar style “Undone” which I also like a lot (that one has great storytelling too).

Those that think communist countries have wealth equality have never been (or studied) a communist country. People there are about as equal than the animals in Orwell’s Animal farm.

Ironically got it at the Trump “victory” party. I guess this is badly needed “positive” news for the Trump team. Gesundheit!

Looks interesting with revenue growth, stable margins, and high ROIC. This thing deserves a thread of its own, IMO. Maybe this is similar to MU, cyclical, long-term trend is upwards, buy when others are looking the other way? SIMO’s memory controller business is a much better business than MU, imo, because there is less pricing fluctuation and it is fabless. Gross margins are fairly stable around 50%, so it’s not as good as a CPU or analog business, but much better than totally commoditized segments like memory. I can start a thread and write a few lines, but my thesis isn’t deep: it’s just an OK to good and somewhat lumpy business that is cheep.

SIMO - Greenblatt/ Magic formula type semiconductor stock.

Betting on widening credit spreads is probably a cheaper way to hedge than buying equity puts right now. Is there a way for retail investors to do this?

I would’ve careful with assumptions about industrial use of Silver, as in most cases a lot of progress is made to reduce the amount of material needed per unit over time, especially when the input is expensive. Also Al and Cu can replace Silver in most applications if things really get silly.

Weren't they just suggesting that asymptomatic covid carriers could continue to work in a hospital's covid hot-zone? The patients in the hot-zone all have covid anyway, so does it really matter if some of the staff also have covid? I guess there's the viral-load argument that the staff could contribute to the viral load in the air, but that seems to me like a pretty marginal effect. Now, if they were suggesting that a covid-positive doctor work in a hospital's cold-zone, there might be some serious ethical and legal considerations.... SJ No, not every patient in a CoVID-19 hotspot zone has CoVID-19 and not every employee or nurse or doctor has it, but with these lack of precautions they probably will. We are basically seeing a repeat of NYC in March in a rural setting with less people. I think mortality rates will be quite bad.

A few SAAS stocks that I am in: FROG - has pretty good metrics and a smallish market cap. Close to IPO price ($44), I would be interested. NCNO - bank operating system. Seems that management is very agile and Gespanns their offerings. Perhaps a long runaway, but it isn’t a hyper fast grower. SPLK - seems like they have a competitive moat. On premise to SAAS transition has stalled top line and earnings metrics but this should be over by 2021. I owned this for a while (bought in September) , but sold went it popped 20% on now news.

It all depends on the gold price and the discipline of the operators. It is similar to oils and gas except prices for their product are better. Personally, I would rather own a little gold etf and not worry about thee things. FWIW, I own a little IAU.