Spekulatius

@LC Does it reduce your returns significantly, if you don’t keep up with everything? I have some smaller holdings where I never managed to establish a full position. I review them a bit maybe every 6 month. I had a few with negative surprises but also a few that performed better than I thought. Just keeping up every 6 month (because it’s in my portfolio) I sometimes find good opportunities to add when I think the fundamentals are better than the stock price performance suggests.

This is also an opportunity for Chinese stocks and a risk for Indian ones. The valuation for Indian stocks are sky high and could easily come down a lot. In the meantime here are very cheap Chinese stocks if you can get past the political risk. but then again, Russian stocks were cheap too in early 2022. As far as the money going out part is concerned, Chinese companies have been increasing capital returns. Alibaba is a prime example with dividends and buybacks but there are many others. I think the best companies to own are those that focus Chinese domestic consumption and have a shareholder friendly management and are somewhat aligned with the goals of the CCP. Anta and other sports good manufacturers seem to check some boxes here.

@nwoodman I have their Esentials track on my phone but when you watch their live acts it’s on another level. Pure energy. Reminds me off me of Iggy Pop in his day: It’s on my bucket list to see them live one day.

I posted this before, just a reminder how China’s works - chance to get your lost wallet back, broken down by country. My take is you do need a high premium to invest in China; the default risk for government bonds is probably not a good measure.

Uhg. Now like sounds like Berkshire is a target day retirement fund.

Iran isn’t exactly thriving but how do you prevent them from selling their oil. They have plenty of it and there are plenty of buyers for a small discount.

Funny how this can work out. 10x in revenue and zero appreciation. But but stock price always follows us ones performance…. IF you buy at a reasonable price.

I am old enough to have fond memories of 3 Mile Island waiting for the hydrogen to blow up the containment vessel.

EVERYTHING is investable at the right price.

Sold $CELH starter. Concern about continuing large insider sales.

What is your evidence that Biden/Kamala are antisemitic?

That headline should really be - stocks rise because people are buying or stocks fall because people are selling. That’s never wrong.

Can’t wait for the day that Elon and Thierry fly to Mars together. However Elon will never go there, because it will take him 6-45 min to reply to a tweet from there. The latency would kill him.

Got to say, this exploding Hezbollah pager attack is genius: Hezbollah went lower tech and distributed the pagers earlier this year because they thought they were safer and somehow Mossad compromised the supply chain and put in a small explosive in them that all went off at the same time.

Sold $FIVE. Worked out alright.

Perhaps it’s me, but management seems clueless on how to turnaround the US Terminex business. First the CEO was talking about search optimization, then improve employee retention to improve customer retention. Both didn’t work even though “initial results were promising”. Now they are saying that costs were too high because they had employee working weekends which of course lead to higher cost due to overtime pay etc. That was done to squeeze out more revenue yet growth has been dropping all along and sits at 1%. I think management need to go here or progress seems unlikely. ROL has none of the issues and has ~8% organic growth, so it’s not the market or consumer, it’s lack of execution for Rentokil in the US.

You do realize, that the top feed is customized on X and has to do with your own history. Below is mine. I have two accounts, one of them I rarely use and of course that one is showing me a different “What is happening feed” than the other. That tells me that “What is happening” has more to do with your own click history on X than what is actually happens in other words, it’s clickbait. I leave it up to others to draw conclusions from your own posted link.

I wish the US had data protection principles. The US is one of the few countries without data protection laws for individuals. It’s free for all here and that’s why business like Equifax and the other credit agencies exist

Der Spiegel is legit, but I think the article in question was more or less from a freelance guest writer.

I mentioned Anta a few times and their recent result were quite impressive given the state of the Chinese consumer. Mid teens sales growth and a 25% profit margin are quite good. Its not deep value , but if the business grows and the share price stagnates or worse, those business get cheaper and more interesting. I also think they have the wind at their back, because the Chinese consumer increasingly prefer Chinese goods/ brands over the likes of Nike etc. https://manager.wisdomir.com/files/394/2024/0827/20240828095726_67345600_en.pdf

SPOT BionNTech Adyen Revolut Genmab

I think valuations for European companies are lower than for comparable companies in the US. The best piece of evidence is the re-listing of companies from Europe to the US leads to a sometimes significant valuation boost. CRH is a very recent example. So in my opinion the market cap comparison is not something should be taken in isolation and looking at other numbers/metrics makes sense too. For example Europes GDP is lower than the USA by almost 50%, so what your really should do is compare $50B market cap companies to $100B market cap companies in the USA if normalized for GDP. What if I tweeted that Austrian stocks market suck because Australia does not have even a single trillion market cap company ? Again this does not explain the whole divergence and it easy to see that the US indices have performed better than the European ones, but I think the tweet is both factional incorrect and more importantly compares somewhat cherry-picked numbers.

X is neither free speech nor unbiased. It’s Elon running the business like it’s his hacienda as the Venezuelans say. People complaining about MSM bias and then totally overlooking that Elon uses X as a Maga propaganda platform is pretty much the pinnacle of hypocrisy. He also puts himself about national laws and then complains when it backfired. Still plays nice to his Chinese overloads though.

Elons companies are sort of a bad examples because there is a cult behind it that pushes the valuation to high multiples. If you do the same comparison just using objective criteria like profits, Europe looks quite a bit less bad. Another co that was started from scratch just a bit more than 50 years ago is actually Airbus - market cap 103B Euro and one example where European cooperation worked.

I don‘t see why energy stocks benefit from worsening US-China ties. Others will be Solar cell producers (First Solar). Rare earth miners and processors and material co like Umicore should benefit in many ways. LED cos like Osram or Wolfspeed have been pummeled by cheap subsidized Chinese competition and should see a reversal in their fortunes. Take any heavily subsidized Chinese industry and find western competitors and you have potential winners.