Spekulatius

Rhasida Tlaib does deserve a refund for her college education but wikipedia says she went to private law school.

Pretty much everything that Putin says in his speech about the mobilization is BS. It also seems that his claim that he is mobilizing reserves and those with military expire he only, There are countless videos of transcripts getting drafted that look like they are 18 years old. it‘s not just the 32 year old IT guy. Putin probably intend to draft more than 300k soldiers or expects huge losses (through desertion or people being unfit or maybe on the frontline). This is going to be the Russian meatgrinder all over again and I expect huge losses. I don’t think these recruits will get winter uniforms either. The West really needs to support Ukraine with material for winter and offensive weapons that allows them to conduct offensive operations. I think a lot of the units formed from these Volksturm soldiers wills shatter on first contact. It‘s going to be a target rich environment, to use investment lingo. Also to keep in mind that revolutions in Russia were started with Soldiers getting unruly due to a senseless war and bad leadership. Minorities from Siberia are bearing the brunt of this. If they wake up (maybe unlikely but not impossible) then the Russian federation could fall apart. Even Belarus looks shaky as an ally because the opposition is emboldened and people seem unhappy with Lukaschenko and being allied with Putin. There is a reason they mobilized the army and it’s not to attack Ukraine (Belarus army is tiny). As for material, Russia is not pulling T62 tanks out of storage. Apparently they are running out of T72/80, not that those proved to be all that great, T62 is a 1960‘s tank, so those machines are 60 years old. If that’s not scrapping the bottomed the barrel , i don’t know what is.

If these reports are true, they are drafting regardless of military experience in Russia. There are quite a few more of these stories around, so I think this is not an isolated case. They are pulling in bodies from wherever they can.

I think with PCP, IBM and particularly Dexter Shoe, Buffett misjudged the business quality. I don't think he obviously overpaid but he didn't own what he thought he bought. it even happens to people as good as Buffett. XOM was bought as a cash substitute and I think pretty much everything that Buffett bought as a cash substitute didn't work out well. VZ is another one in this bucket. Lubrizol seems like an OK business, when he bought it, but it didn't work out well under Berkshires ownership? Maybe management issues? This one was pitched by Sokol to him before he was fired for "insider trading". I don't think it was a total disaster, but it definitely didn't work out all that well.

I have been tracking this for almost a decade since someone wrote it up, more for curiosity than being interested in investing. It's not really a business in a strict sense, because generating a profit isn't the primary purpose of a central bank. I would regard this as a preferred stock with certain rights to get distributions on their income. Well, that income is now gone for a couple of years as you stated. I think it's odd that the Belgium government let's this one float and now would be a good time to just buy out this oddball.

This is very bullish for GOOGL , MSFT and the likes. There is a lot of froth in salary and staff in these companies and when these excess costs are taken out, even smaller increases in topline will lead to higher margins and turbocharge earnings.

BNB is the closest to a central bank going broke you are going so see. BNB is a publicity traded "central bank". Another one is the swiss central bank - both are organized as stock companies. BNB has been a decent dividend payer, until now: https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/enterprise/press/2022/marketrelease_nbb_21092022.pdf Looks like huge Market to market losses on their Fixed income portfolio are the main culprit.

I enjoyed this Freakonomics podcast with Roland Fryer: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/roland-fryer-refuses-to-lie-to-black-america/

So we list only the success ? No PCP, Dexter Shoe, IBM, Lubrizol as well as the O&G adventures XOM and COP?

Orwell coined the term doublethink for it. In George Orwell's dystopian classic 1984, doublethink is the act of holding, simultaneously, two opposite, individually exclusive ideas or opinions and believing in both simultaneously and absolutely. Doublethink requires using logic against logic or suspending disbelief in the contradiction.

It’s just a buy and put away stock. I expect about 10% annual return from it.

I read some transcripts of what Putin has been saying regarding nukes and he makes it appear like NATO threatens Russia with Nukes. Also, Putin always does some saber rattling on UN meetings and of course he needed something to go along with his partial mobilization. So, I think this is just for show and not really anything new. I agree with @shhughes1116 that Ukraine may do something on the offensive before late fall and winter when offensive operations become more difficult. Cutting that Landbridge to Crimea would very nice. I also think that it’s getting more and more likely that Germany is going to give some tanks or Marder vehicles to Ukraine since Scholz is running out of excuses. Would be cool to see German tanks with Ukraine flags rolling.

Todays mood:

Bought a starter of $KKR and $MKL and a bit $V. Small adds all over the place $USB, $CRM, $PCYO, $IAA.

Interesting - we heard that story before. I get MS "research" via my retail E*trade account and the analyst is Gary Yu and has an OW on $BABA with a $140 target. I guess I get what I am paying for.

Any idea why BABA is down today ? I didn't see any relevant news. The explanations I saw in the IBKR news feed seem unconvincing (Rate hikes etc.).

Conventional strike. Lot's of cruise missiles on military targets in occupied Ukraine and Russia. Sea blockade. No ships leaves Russian harbors. No ship goes in. Just a few options. I have no idea, but I think a nuclear counterstrike is not likely, at least not as a first measure. If Russia continues with nuclear weapons it well eventually escalate. FWIW, i don't think giving Ukraine 50 nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles is the worst idea in this case.

The vast majority of the people will be better of with shallow recession and 2% inflation. If the current situation of negative real wages (in real terms) persists for a few years, the middle class will get absolutely destroyed. Now, I understand why people like Sternlicht think differently - just look at their business and how they benefit from negative real interest rates. How would his business do, if real interest rates (after inflation) were at 3% like they were in the 80‘s ? Probably not so great.

@ACooke re TPB I agree with your assessment. It’s one of my biggest losers (in terms of % loss). I have been adding just a little recently, but my concerns with the CEO (no consumer goods experience) prevent me from getting in bigger. I think they should sell or close down the NewGen (vape) business

I also bought some PCYO but paid a bit more than you (~$9.4). Had a position before but opportunistically traded out of if a short time ago and wanted exposure back. With microcaps, buybacks rarely happen because the CEO are often concerned about reducing liquidity even more and also have quite obscure frameworks for capital allocation. Big picture - you get PCYO for COVID-19 prices but with better fundamentals.

Added more WRK and few other small adds here and there.

Yes, this is correct - the 8%+ inflation is backwards looking, but even the core inflation is 6%+ right now. The core inflation has inputs that change much more slowly so it will take a while to take it back. Based on core inflation data - at 4% risk free bond yield, the real interest rate is -2%. As for manufacturing a recession, you could always say this is what a tightening cycle is trying to do. Inflation means demand exceeds supply, so demand needs to be reduced to match supply, unless supply starts to increase (which would work as well but it does not appear to be happening). Luckily (or unluckily for the stock market investor), the Fed has ways to go until it really impairs the second mandate which is full employment. We have more than full employment, so until labor market shows some significant increases in unemployment, the first mandate (price stability) is what drives the policy for the time being. The absolute nightmare scenario, which is think the Fed is trying to avoid, is that Fed starts to ease again (too early) and then all of a sudden inflation starts to rise again with a vengeance. Now the Fed has a real problem with credibility and to squash an inflation flareup, they have to rise interest rates way higher than in the first tightening cycle, because they have lost all the credibility. That would be a true repeat of the 70's sh$tshow and no one wants that.

If you think in broad terms - 4% interest rates with 8% inflation is still very accommodative. Even a 6% mortgage at 8% inflation is -2% in terms of real rates. I think in order to really crack inflation - the risk fee interest rates will have to be positive in real terms (subtracting inflation) for a while. Now if this occurs with 6% interest rates and 5% inflation or 4% interest rates and 2% inflation I am unsure, but that we do get real interest rates in this tightening cycle and that interest rates need to stay positive (to help squash a reemergence of inflation) seems likely. Brought to you from Spek's macro soapbox and worth exactly what you paid for,

Nothing that has been thought said can ever be taken back. Friedrich Durrenmatt FWIW, I think the Republic of Taiwan will be recognized by the US and many other countries this decade as a sovereign country.

I think negotiations are at this point are unlikely to lead to anything. There is no willingness from either side to negotiate. Both Putin and Zelensky stated this very recently.