UK

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/goldman-says-time-to-think-about-a-shift-in-market-leadership?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-03/chinese-tech-stocks-soar-as-u-s-measures-spur-support-hopes

https://www.rvcapital.ch/

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/trump-says-401k-investors-who-followed-his-advice-are-doing-phenomenally-the-others-not-so-much-2020-07-26

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-plans-to-sign-executive-orders-aimed-at-reducing-drug-prices-11595623107

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-13/opium-demand-jumps-as-desperate-afghan-villagers-seek-covid-cure?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.wsj.com/articles/zimbabwes-plan-to-save-its-currency-shut-down-the-stock-exchange-11594129176 “For the last decade or so, Zimbabwe has been an upside down place,” said Peter Townshend, portfolio manager for Sanlam’s Africa Equity Fund. “Any time you see stocks going up, it is actually a bad sign and indicates deteriorating conditions.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/insurance-hot-again-allstate-kkr-deals-lemonade-ipo-51594226748 "Separately, KKR (KKR) said Wednesday it agreed to buy Global Atlantic Financial Group, which offers retirement, life and insurance products. KKR will pay 1.0x the insurer’s book value when the deal closes. Global Atlantic’s book value was $4.4 billion as of March 31. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2021." https://www.wsj.com/articles/chubbs-pandemic-estimate-could-buffer-insurers-11594202402 "But overall, the bar may be raised for earnings season. The S&P 500 property-and-casualty sector is now trading at an average of 1.3 times book, recovering from its slip below book value in March and just off its five-year average of 1.4 times. This suggests a less-scary downside from Covid-19 is already priced in. Investors’ focus should now be on whether insurers’ pricing and premiums can show signs of possible upside." https://www.allstateinvestors.com/static-files/0e2153e0-b5ef-479c-98f6-b06cbe1dbed0 "Multiple of 11.9x last twelve months earnings and 1.78x book value as of March 31, 2020 Represents a 64% premium to closing stock price over the latest 30 trading days"

"The question comes more loudly now than at any time since Berkshire missed out on the dotcom boom: has Mr Buffett lost his touch?"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-18/sweden-remains-far-from-herd-immunity-despite-softer-lockdown https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-antibody/antibody-levels-in-recovered-covid-19-patients-decline-quickly-research-idUSKBN23T1CJ

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-02/jpmorgan-s-bond-chief-has-no-time-for-fed-haters

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/12/druckenmiller-central-banks-are-financial-worlds-darth-vader-creating-exploding-asset-bubbles.html

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

Becky Quick: (02:47:14) This next question comes from Steven Staller. He’s a shareholder in Atlanta, Georgia and he says, “Would you please help us understand the effects of COVID-19 are on our insurance businesses? Other insurance companies have reported losses from boosting reserves for future insurance claims that they expect to be paying as a result of Coronavirus. Yet in Berkshire’s 10Q released this morning, we do not appear to have reported much of these future expected losses. Can you tell us why this is the case? What kind of risks Berkshire is underwriting that allows us not to be affected by the pandemic or conversely, what we are writing that might be?” Warren Buffett: (02:47:47) Well, the amount of litigation that is going to be generated out of what’s already happened, let alone what may happen, is going to be huge. Now, just the cost of defending litigation is huge, enormous expense, depending on how much there is. Warren Buffett: (02:48:08) Now, in the auto insurance field, which is our number one field in terms of premium volume by some margin, that’s more definable, but who knows what comes out of it in terms of litigation. But in what they call commercial multiple peril, which involves property losses and where some people elect to buy business interruption experience coverage, many policies quite clearly in the contract language would not have a claim for business interruption under a commercial multiple peril policy where you’ve elected that. But other policies do I know of, I think I know of one company. I don’t know the details, that’s written a fair amount where they cover or they certainly there’s a good argument perhaps that they cover business interruption that might arise from a pandemic. Warren Buffett: (02:49:26) Well, they’re in a very different position than the standard language which says that you recover for business interruption only if involves physical damage to the property. And you can buy all kinds of different policies. We are not big in the commercial, multiple peril business. Warren Buffett: (02:49:47) So I mean, this is not like our auto business or anything of that sort, but we will have claims. We’ll have litigation costs, but proportionally it’s not the same with us as with some other companies, which have been much more… Warren Buffett: (02:50:03) …those with some other companies which have been much heavier in writing business interruption as part of a commercial, multiple peril. But you don’t automatically get coverage if you have business interruption. I mean for example, I think it would be unusual if say General Motors had a strike, which they did, and that they have business interruption that covers a strike. We actually wrote about, probably the only annual report in the United States, we wrote about business interruption insurance because we had it over in France, when one of our properties was adjacent to a much smaller property that had a fire and then it spread to our plant and it caused a lot of physical damage and we have business interruption that ties in with that. But if we had some company we were selling auto parts to and they had a strike, our business would be interrupted, but that is not part of the coverage, unless you specifically really buy it. So, there’s some claims that are going to be very valid and related to the present situation. There’ll be an awful lot that there’ll be litigation on that won’t be valid. Warren Buffett: (02:51:18) And, there’s no question that some insurance companies, I know one particular, that will pay a lot of money relative to their size, in terms of policies that they’ve written. And I think we have reserved, and our history shows we generally have reserved on the conservative side, adequately at least. And that’s certainly our intent. And we tell no managers of any of our insurance operations, what numbers we expect from them or do any of that. They evaluate their losses and they build in something for social inflation. They build in things for all kinds of things. And generally speaking, Berkshire has been pretty accurate in its reserving. And, I have no reason to think that we’re otherwise than that, currently.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d Sweden’s unique strategy to deal with coronavirus will ensure it has only a small second wave of cases unlike other countries that could be forced to return to lockdown, according to the architect of the contentious policy. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”. “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?” He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease. About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected. But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-politics-trust/coronavirus-health-fears-outweigh-concern-for-economy-global-survey-idUSKBN22H098

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-is-too-cautious-berkshire-needs-an-activist-investor-says-51588611940 "Swing you bum!" :)

"Some years, the gains in underlying earning power we achieve will be minor; very occasionally, the cash register will ring loud. Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do." "America’s economic achievements have led to staggering profits for stockholders. During the 20th century the Dow-Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497, a 17,320% capital gain that was materially boosted by steadily increasing dividends. The trend continues: By yearend 2016, the index had advanced a further 72%, to 19,763. American business – and consequently a basket of stocks – is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation, productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will see to that. Ever-present naysayers may prosper by marketing their gloomy forecasts. But heaven help them if they act on the nonsense they peddle. Many companies, of course, will fall behind, and some will fail. Winnowing of that sort is a product of market dynamism. Moreover, the years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines – even panics – that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur – not me, not Charlie, not economists, not the media. Meg McConnell of the New York Fed aptly described the reality of panics: “We spend a lot of time looking for systemic risk; in truth, however, it tends to find us.” During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well." It seems that they really see this event as different. Maybe too much uncertainty/to early to act in a big way, or maybe not cheap enought to compensate for that uncertainty.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced. After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.

The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-turmoil-free-trades-draw-newbies-into-stock-market-11588158001 “I feel like everything that I buy, I watch pretty closely and if it’s something that’s not doing well, I’ll generally try to put [that money] into something that is doing well instead,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/firemen-and-romance-writers-faces-of-a-fierce-rebound-in-stocks “I’m a complete noob when it comes to stocks,” the mother of high school senior twin boys said while sheltering at home. “It’s not thousands and thousands of dollars that I invested, but it’s a start. We’ll see what happens. I hate to say it, but it’s like gambling, isn’t it?” More accounts were opened and dollars invested at E*Trade in the first quarter than in any prior full-year period, according to a company statement. The brokerage added 329,000 retail accounts and over $18 billion in net retail assets.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/swedish-city-lund-dump-tonne-chicken-manure-park-deter-visitors-coronavirus-lockdown

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-man-who-convinced-the-swedish-not-to-go-into-lockdown-9qhcc608n Meanwhile, the Swedish economy has been far less badly hit than that of other European countries and is expected to contract by only 4 per cent this year. “I’m not an economist, but the UK is far more affected with more out of work,” Tegnell says, although he insists that he would never want to sacrifice lives to protect GDP.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-24/reckitt-warns-against-using-disinfectants-to-treat-coronavirus?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/coronavirus-dies-fastest-under-light-warm-and-humid-conditions?srnd=premium-europe