UK

https://fortune.com/2024/08/03/stock-market-crash-bill-gross-dont-buy-the-dip-warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sell-signal/ In a post on X early Friday, Gross said there are very few “bull stocks” and pointed to pipeline master limited partnerships, banks, and financials in general. “Investors should stop talking about buying the dip and start asking about selling recoveries,” the cofounder of PIMCO added. ... On Saturday, Berkshire Hathaway’s second-quarter earnings report revealed that Buffett’s conglomerate sold a net $75.5 billion worth of stock and nearly halved its stake in Apple. The transactions took place before the recent stock selloff, when the S&P 500 was regularly setting fresh record highs. “You could conclude this is another sell signal,” Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones, told Bloomberg. “This was a far higher level of selling activity than we were expecting.” Anybody expects at least of a short interview by WB next week:)?

Personally I like WB selling that much of Apple. Even after this sale it would still be ~30 percent of total marketable securities? Probably should even sell some more:). It makes a lot of sense because of the huge position size, valuation, maybe even too much of China dependance etc. But, despite of him also selling some BAC and other investments, I do not think this tells anything much about the market, as some in the media are trying to suggest. Anything, perhaps even including very big acquisition, is possible, but my guess all this is more likely related to a preparation for a future managment transition. I am not sure what to think of about 1/3 of BRK market CAP being in cash now. I still would not like to see a special (or any:)) dividend, but am afraid this is also quite possible. On the flip side, if it stays this way, one will be able to say BRK is his cash substitute even more assuredly:)

I think it belongs here, perhaps together with M7/AI unwind and sudden fear of hardlanding, as the main drivers. I see VIX was already almost 30 on Friday...quite a day:)

Thanks!

So I bought ERF in the last month, which makes it a new fifth position in my well diversified portfolio:). I am not sure how I feel about this, but, together with FFH, this makes it is a second company I own now, which is under attack from MW. So far so good (bought it at ~46+ EUR price), but still watch it carefully every day. But despite of this, YTD I was a net seller, and currently am ~80+ invested (from ~110+ at the end of the last year) mainly by further reducing BRKB and META, trimming other big positions somewhat and completely selling other / smaller / more speculative things, which together accounted for a substantial amount of total sales.

Good point/agree re open market, probably will have to find some other way. It seems nothing was told re minorities. Also it seems the call again ended because of no more questions. Being on COBF one could almost forget this reality of still unusually low interest from a market for a 25 B company:)

Found nothing to dislike in the conference call:) Just to highlight again: "And -- but what I've noticed here is the uptick in your share buybacks over 613,000 shares in the quarter. That's nearly triple what you purchased in the "rst quarter and then almost 6x, which you purchased on a quarter -- on the fourth quarter of last year. " So share repurchasing pace seems accelerating and running at a ~10 percent annualised rate in the Q2.

Thanks for posting!

Thanks. OK then. Still was perplexed by this a little, even went to check if maybe there is something new from MW:)

+1

Strange price action for FFH today. Rate expectations (would be my guess) or not, this should also influence all insurers/reinsurers, but I do not see many (or at all) other insurance stocks down more then 5 percent? Was something bad said in the call?

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hedge-fund-elliott-says-ai-is-overhyped-nvidia-stock-a-bubble-3552377

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-02/short-seller-andrew-left-s-deleted-tweets-reappear-in-fraud-case

No, but you know: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/investors-should-sell-stocks-at-first-rate-cut-amid-growing-hard-landing-risks--bofa-432SI-3551431

+1

The top 3 for me perhaps all would be Buffett related (like Intelligent Investor, Lowenstein's book, Letters' book etc) but I would like to recommend other, maybe less known and non WB/BRK related books: 1. Bull. A History of the Boom by Mahar 2. Keynes and the Market by Walsh 3. The Little Book of Behavioral Investing by Montier. All quite simple and easy to read. Last is the most important:)

This seems promising:). I would vote (or would like to see, because of wishful thinking) for an unwinding, but perhaps both things could happen to a degree, who knows? Market is going up non stop, without any meaningful volatility almost for a two years now. Perhaps it would be normal and even healthy for at least some kind of correction size pullback to occur and return of little more fear to the market. I already see quite a lot of headlines about recession and geopolitics, lets wait for a chorus of usual doomsayers to emerge:)

He is unusually quiet since the last week:) Probably busy by also deleting his tweets:)))

"Maduro, 61, is accused of locking up critics and harassing the opposition in a climate of rising authoritarianism. He is seeking a third six-year term at the helm of the once wealthy petro-state that saw GDP drop 80 percent in a decade, pushing more than seven million of its 30 million citizens to emigrate."

Thanks for your response! Most likely you are right.

When FFH was issuing its shares at a 1.3 BV to make large insurance acquisitions in 2015-2016 I also have a lot of doubts regarding Singleton talk and felt this way (despite of them being right at the end), but after this period and since pandemic, I think they really have showed it is not only a talk for them. And they are only at some 30 B CAP currently, so still lots of other opportunities to alocate capital. I still do not think the acquisition of Sleep Country at less than 1 B USD (or 3-4 per cent of their CAP) is something to worry much about. It migh not be obvious, why they are doing it, but it does not seem obviously bad either, at least for me personally. And even if it turns out a not very good or bad one, to expect every single investment to work for FFH, I think would be a mistake and a bit to demanding:)

True. Very nice CAGR. And it was a double from 2020 pandemic low price of ~170 USD as early as March 2022! You definitely can make a nice return with BRK, especially buying it at a price near BV. The similarly good price and opportunity was in 2012. In both cases WB confirming it with a buybacks (with a start in 2012 and large actual buybacks in 2020-21) was telling. I made BRK a very large position in both cases. My question is what about the next 5 or 10 years from a current valuation though? I have another, somewhat new worry, regarding the next 10 years. So first of all, WB is my personal hero and I consider him Mozart of investing. But does anyone else have at least some worries with a plan he has for a possible management transition in the future? Is it really the best way to do it? I have personal bitter experience of what old age (or related health issues) can do to a person and his decision making capacity, no matter who he was before. Many talk here about how his priority is safety and avoiding volatility or uncertainty for long term shareholders etc. But then why not let Greg to become a CEO and to allow him to run BRK for some time, hopefully still long time!, watching him from a position of chairman (or just of a large shareholder), while you are still sharp and able? Sorry for asking of such a question, maybe I do not understand this completely or worry too much. Like I said, I have enormous respect for WB and BRK, and I am still a shareholder myself.

Thanks. I do not disagree with you at all, especially regarding 2020. In this covid period I was also defensive to early and soon hidding almost completely in BRK myself:)

Yes, the second point is somewhat intriguing. But after watching him/them doing nothing in 2020 (lots of opportunities) or 2022 (big tech opportunities), I do not hold my breath for any big offensive moves anymore. Would be glad to be wrong though. Being continuously defensive and cleaning the house perhaps makes a lot of sense for him now. Not sure if this is the ideal way for preparing for inevitable transition though.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024087477/xslF345X05/ownership.xml So WB is selling BAC, BYD, possibly even more AAPL...I am wondering what does it mean (probably nothing) or what is his alternative (probably cash) for them?