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UK

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Everything posted by UK

  1. Also, like it or not: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-nuclear-arsenal-deterrent-navy-new-start-proliferation-national-security-11630524535
  2. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/what-china-wants/528561/ If China reaches the first goal— which it is on course to do—the IMF estimates that its economy will be 40 percent larger than that of the U.S. (measured in terms of purchasing power parity). If China meets the second target by 2049, its economy will be triple America's. What does China’s dramatic transformation mean for the United States and the global balance of power? Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, who before his death in 2015 was the world’s premier China-watcher, had a pointed answer about China’s stunning trajectory over the past 40 years: “The size of China’s displacement of the world balance is such that the world must find a new balance. It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world.” Will Xi succeed in growing China sufficiently to displace the U.S. as the world’s top economy and most powerful actor in the Western Pacific? Can he make China great again? It is obvious that there are many ways things could go badly wrong, and these extraordinary ambitions engender skepticism among most observers. But, when the question was put to Lee Kuan Yew, he assessed the odds of success as four chances in five. Neither Lee nor I would bet against Xi. As Lee said, China’s “reawakened sense of destiny is an overpowering force.” Yet many Americans are still in denial about what China’s transformation from agrarian backwater to “the biggest player in the history of the world” means for the United States.
  3. To one his own, I agree and also do not do like zillion things:), also did not owned or even looked at China stocks in the last 20 years before this debacle, except one stock in 2010, but it was a wash:)
  4. And since question is specifically re CCP, I will repost this chart. Another day read somewhere "No matter how much I disagree with Brussels, I'd sure as rather trust EU over CCP". Now, I live in EU (and am one of the biggest fan on earth of US), but gee, in the last 10 years all EU managed to produce was crisis after crisis: Euro, Brexit, migration, energy policy, etc, while nurtured zero tech champions, now losing EV battery game. China meanwhile went from strength to strength every time and I still should trust EU more? Based on what? Only because it is democracy? Thanks god US has done better and I hope still will do in the future, but only because China's system is different, that does not mean it is necessarily inferior in every way and doomed to fail. It already successfully lasted 50 years. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.html
  5. if you can't beat them, join them: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpkCV2Hd62Y :))) Seriously thought, I think this is a major opportunity of one in a 10 year kind. I would also agree with Viking, that it is considerably more speculative than investing in similar US companies. But I would argue that a lot of US companies, especially smaller, are more speculative than China big tech companies. I would answer the question "what causes the fundamental change", that nothing (except maybe for education stocks:)) has changed in big picture in the first place, only valuations, because of this temporary "regulation noise":)
  6. Kinda: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-07/goldilocks-low-rates-economy-has-stock-investors-in-a-headlock?sref=uN6cur8D "The rally is driven less by reflation prospects than a return to the pre-pandemic reality of low interest rates, which leaves no alternative to stocks" But I would not pay to much attention to such things, better I think, until some real shit hits the fan, just to stay with mostly win-win situations, like BRK:))
  7. I would ques it is related to this value-growth rotation going on back and forth, which is mostly related to rate expectations, which is mostly related to economy expectations, which is somehow related to maybe delta scare and what not else, and it is only trying to explain past:) and still perhaps nobody on earth knows what will future be:). But I think BRK is quite well positioned, but they are regarded bu market as being more on the short duration side, so lower rate expectations is not as good for BRK valuation (as say for FANGS), but lower valuation is not so bad if BB are going on, so you cannot lose here and god bless BRK BB:)
  8. https://www.wsj.com/articles/railroads-brace-as-regulator-signals-willingness-to-take-on-industry-11630584002?mod=business_lead_pos12 The obscure federal regulator that threw a wrench into a $30 billion railroad merger this week could have more in store for the nation’s freight railways—with implications for both business and consumers. Like other federal agencies, the five-member Surface Transportation Board has been tasked by President Biden to root out what it considers to be corporate monopolies that hurt smaller companies and consumers. In a closely watched action, the board in coming months is expected to consider a rule to mandate so-called reciprocal switching, the practice in which railroads can be compelled to share access to their tracks with competitors. That would allow shippers to seek competitive bids for moving freight, which in theory could lower shipping costs and the prices ultimately paid by consumers. Freight railroads oppose the plan, saying it would be detrimental to their operations and profits. Trucking already serves as a competitive counterweight, they argue. Freight railroads also warn that such a mandate could have unintended consequences, including lower capital investments in infrastructure they are forced to share with rivals. There are also threats beyond reciprocal shipping. Martin Oberman, who was appointed chairman of the STB by Mr. Biden earlier this year, has also mused about the possibility of the STB moving to regulate storage fees at so-called intermodal railroad terminals—which handle containers across multiple modes of transport, like rails, trucks and ships—to address clogs in the supply chain. Intermodal shipping is currently exempt from STB regulation. “This is an industry with very few entrants in it, and they tend to be very monopolistic or, at best, duopolistic,” Mr. Oberman said. ”So we just have to live with the existing limited entrants in the field, but at least build in competition where we can.” “The railroad industry is not just about maximizing profits for railroads, it’s also about the public interest in the economy, and the Congress has made that clear,” he said. Mr. Oberman’s focus on competition and skepticism of some of the railroad industry isn’t a departure from his predecessor, Ann Begeman —but his tone is, said Tony Hatch, a veteran railroad analyst. Mr. Oberman also established a new passenger rail working group that is preparing to begin enforcing new on-time performance standards beginning next year. Under those rules, which freights, Amtrak, and the government battled over for a decade, freight railroads could face penalties for delaying passenger trains, which run over freight-owned tracks across most of the country. Rulings favorable to passenger railroads in both matters could help make feasible Mr. Biden’s vision of vastly expanding train travel in the country. Mr. Oberman countered that many of the mergers that consolidated the rail industry 20 years ago included contracts for reciprocal switching among railroads, which have operated without major problems since. “The railroads would prefer that we do nothing ever, except pre-empt everybody else from regulating the railroads,” Mr. Oberman said. “I think the reaction, and I’ve told them, by the way, was way overdone and exaggerated.”
  9. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-mixing-hurricanes-with-low-rates-impacts-insurers-11630350607 But there is some rising pressure on recent positive pricing trends for reinsurers, according to industry reviews. A report by brokerage Willis Towers Watson in July said that in the reinsurance market “there are increasing signs of capacity supply outweighing demand. Worries about inflated costs had limited impact on recent renewal pricing, the report said. But the market for alternative capital is booming, with issuance of catastrophe bonds in the second quarter of 2021 outstripping new issuance in 2019, according to Willis. This market tends to be strong when interest rates are low, leading investors to search for alternative forms of yield. Historically this has hit reinsurance pricing through ample supply of funds.
  10. I used to own old Honda or Nissan, but then changed my mind on this "cigar butt car ownership style" not least due to: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collision_avoidance_system I don't need or even like any assistance in driving (can even use manual gearbox:)), but this "automatic braking" is really important and it works (have "tried" several times). At night, or if you are distracted, sometimes it just sees and acts faster. It is usual feature for newer (soon will be mandatory for all new cars), but most older-cheaper just do not have it.
  11. I am sure Q7 is very nice and good car! But what else is funny with Q8 is that it shares the same platform with Lamborghini Urus, so one could argue, that Q8 fanciest and most expensive version, which is Q8 RS, is actually cheapest:)). I think it should qualify then for value buy, with approx 50 per cent margin of safety:))) https://www.hotcars.com/heres-why-the-audi-rs-q8-is-a-better-buy-than-the-lamborghini-urus/
  12. I think, that those issues were related to a very specific engines and years, also boxer diesel, which they already discontinued, but yes I also read that some of their cars from particular years had such issues. Otherwise they are made to be very practical and resilient, dirt proof, etc. But also noisy and very light on materials/fancy/comfort stuff. Probably it is hard not to find similar reliability problem stories with different manufacturers these days, but perhaps then Honda still has very good reputation?
  13. Subaru Outback or Forester for value, Audi Q8 for growth/quality:)))
  14. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-20/delta-case-wave-in-u-s-northeast-may-be-nearing-its-peak
  15. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3553976/ Funny, serious, especially for those who have kids:)
  16. It was shamelessly copied (and tweaked a litttle bit) from: https://www.drwealth.com/invest-in-these-3-companies-and-you-pretty-much-own-the-world/
  17. RE sentiment: https://www.wsj.com/articles/alibabas-u-s-shares-fall-to-lowest-since-2019-as-china-cracks-down-11629240410 Another factor pressuring U.S.-listed Chinese businesses is Afghanistan, said George Ball, chairman at the investment firm Sanders Morris Harris. He said traders worry that China’s potential growing influence might empower the Chinese government to enact even more stringent regulations. “The American inability to deal with the threats in Afghanistan is making traders think that China is going to be all the more stronger,” Mr. Ball said.
  18. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-13/improving-covid-data-boosts-u-k-s-johnson-after-economy-reopens Coronavirus data suggest the U.K. is slowly emerging from the latest wave of the pandemic, even after the government pushed ahead with an almost full reopening of the economy last month. Virus reproduction numbers published on Friday indicate Covid-19 is in retreat in five of England’s seven regions and in the nation as a whole, while the national statistician’s weekly survey showed infection rates broadly stable in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and declining in Scotland.
  19. Yes, sure, BV era is ending:) and I look at BRK more via "normalised earnings" (which you can conveniently borrow and adjust as you like from say Semper Augustus) and PE, however I am to lazy yet to calculate normalised profit back to 1996:). If anybody knows, maybe such data is already available (kind of look through earnings or similar)? Because also it would be nice and possible to compare BRK to SNP in such way.
  20. I think this one can be recommended in advance:)
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