UK

Maybe not all, but most analyst reports are a joke, just ignore them and use them for information/entertainment purposes only. I know, since in my previous life many years ago, I also wrote some of these reports:). While doing this we were joking, that "paper could suffer anything". DCF gives you ability to get almost whatever outcome your want. Generaly they all suffer very much from recency bias, otherwise they are to optimistic. Only one Sell report was issued by the department I worked in a few years and then analyst who did this was forced to leave a job, at the insistence of client, who otherwise threatened to sever his relationship with a bank. I think we were allowed at the time, but I do not remember, anyone betting any of his/her money on the research produced. Despite of everything, most people involved (clients, general public etc) took everything quite seriously, which was very interesting and bizzare expierence for me:).

Still not past the peak. I wonder if and by how much it effects the price of FFH in this period?

China’s Xi Vows to Continue Opening Up Market, on Own Terms In previous years, Xi has used the fair to reaffirm China’s commitment to opening up. There have been indications that foreign businesses are looking for more than just pledges this time around, with European Chamber President, Jens Eskelund, saying last month some executives are feeling “promise fatigue.”

Perhaps it also means, that despite of not recognising losses, these companies will underearn for years and/or will behave differently in the underwriting side, hopefully keeping the insurance market harder for longer:)

Precisely.

This is not a bad take on the situation: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-31/china-xi-jinping-should-talk-less-politics-and-more-economics Xi’s calm in the face of China’s worst economic situation in decades may have disappointed investors, but he has good political reason not to prioritize a recovery at the moment. Like all strongmen who guard their power with utmost vigilance, Xi likely knows that a pivot to the economy means delegating a lot of authority to technocrats. That’s because most specific policies to address China’s current woes are highly complex and technical. Decentralization of power is the precondition of reviving economic dynamism. The empowerment of senior officials in charge of the economy could dilute Xi’s own influence — even though they are his acolytes. He probably remembers the experience of Mao Zedong following the Great Leap Forward famine from 1959 to 1961. After this disaster destroyed Mao’s credibility, the dictator had to step aside, ceding economic policymaking to pragmatists. But soon Mao began to regret the decision because the subsequent recovery boosted the power of the pragmatists at his expense. He had to launch the Cultural Revolution in 1966 to regain political dominance.

In 10 minutes:

Btw re this BRICS alliance: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/india-china-tensions-threaten-to-leave-modi-empty-handed-at-g-20

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/31/india/india-china-map-protest-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-countries-should-see-its-national-map-objective-way-2023-08-31/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-30/us-approves-first-arms-sale-for-taiwan-under-program-for-nations#xj4y7vzkg The US for the first time approved the transfer of weapons to Taiwan under a program usually reserved for sovereign states, the State Department said Wednesday.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/30/how-can-american-house-prices-still-be-rising What explains this impressive resilience? For something the size of America’s property market—where annual sales are worth about $2trn, scattered across a continent-sized economy, in which some regions are flourishing and others contracting—there is inevitably a nuanced answer. However, a good summary came in late August from Douglas Yearley, chief executive of Toll Brothers, one of America’s biggest homebuilders, during an earnings call. “There are still buyers out there. They have very few options,” he explained. ... Many of those braving the market in order to buy homes have opted for new-builds, not existing stock. One advantage of newly built homes is that they are actually available. Thus they account for about one-third of active listings this year, up from an average of 13% over the two decades before the covid-19 pandemic, according to the National Association of Home Builders. As Daryl Fairweather of Redfin puts it: “Builders are benefiting because they don’t have competition from existing homeowners.”

If I was ask to write a somewhat similar analogy of the situation, it would be more like one of these stories when a person in a nice and improving neighborhood for whatever reasons turns his backyard into some kind of a hole or dump, by bringing all kinds of bad behavior, waste, starts feeding 20 or so stray cats and so on, to stay safe he owns no less than 3 aggressive dogs and some arms, to keep the distance, he harass and confronts its neighbors in other ways and blames everyone except himself for his miseries:). But of course also he is paranoid and wants some privacy and keep everybody away aka Monroe doctrine:). Depending on the neighborhood and other circumstances, this situation could go on for a long time, maybe even all neighborhood could turn to shit, but more likely then not, the situation will resolve over time, at his expense:)

https://www.businessinsider.in/investment/news/warren-buffett-turns-90-today-here-are-5-of-the-legendary-investors-best-birthday-stories-/articleshow/103206533.cms "At my last birthday, somebody asked me how old I was," the investor recalled during Berkshire's annual shareholders' meeting in 1998. "And I said, 'Well, why don't you just count the candles on the cake?' And he said he was driven back by the heat."

This is very interesting! I remember finding another book about Genghis Khan and was very surprised (because this was the the opposite of what I had learned under soviet educational system about the subject): "The Mongol army led by Genghis Khan subjugated more lands and people in twenty-five years than the Romans did in four hundred. In nearly every country the Mongols conquered, they brought an unprecedented rise in cultural communication, expanded trade, and a blossoming of civilization. Vastly more progressive than his European or Asian counterparts, Genghis Khan abolished torture, granted universal religious freedom, and smashed feudal systems of aristocratic privilege. From the story of his rise through the tribal culture to the explosion of civilization that the Mongol Empire unleashed, this brilliant work of revisionist history is nothing less than the epic story of how the modern world was made. “Reads like the Iliad…Part travelogue, part epic narrative.” — Washington Post “It’s hard to think of anyone else who rose from such inauspicious beginnings to something so awesome, except maybe Jesus.” But basically it again explained why this empire of Genghis Khan was so successful and thrived at its time. Because at the time it was superior to any other alternative and so the system just spread, intentionally or not, because it had what to offer for the people / nations under its rule/bootstrap? Perhaps not unlike any other empire it any particular point in history? Then came Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, Pax Americana. And so naturally all those superior systems of the time rose at the expense of the inferior systems? So I do not know if this expansion it is planed or unplanned (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_Kiev_speech), but I think that there is at least one thing which is perhaps obvious at this time: a former Soviet empire (or what is left of it) currently is a very inferior system and just does not has much or anything good at all to offer anymore. This is basically a former empire run by criminals, now turned to a war criminals on a big scale. Name me at least one country, under their influence, which is thriving or going up? More likely than not these are also failed states or on their way to it. While on the contrary, most members of Nato or EU (or both) is in peace and enjoying prosperity. So isn't all this just self explanatory? Now, what to do and how to cope with this failed former empire, which is nuclear armed to the teeth, and whose regime of course also have its own interests, I have no idea and for sure it is all very precarious and dangerous etc.

This is a very good observation. I would just add, that sometimes it could be a huge, day and night (or North Korea vs South Korea, Belarus vs Baltic states etc) difference to which power a smaller countries (lesser powers) chooses to give up most of their sovereignty, when it is possible. And Ukraine is basically fighting for its right to make a choice.

I think you are right. And, as recent events showed, even if you make a deal, you could still end up like Prigozhin:)

Agree that the whole situation is terribly sad, but speaking about deals, didnt Prigozhin recently made a deal with Putin?

Rostov!:)

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/analysischinese-investors-rush-to-offshore-funds-to-offset-domestic-risks-3163005

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hedge-fund-exposure-to-7-biggest-tech-stocks-at-record-high-goldman-sachs-says-3162770 "The primary objective of hedge funds is to generate returns, rather than to be imaginative for the sake of diversification," I think this is quite true. Not sure about the application on M7 at this time though:)

Hey, this supposed to be funny:). Anyone? Question: what was the largest city taken over by Russia in it's war in Ukraine so far?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-dakota-bnsf-railway-friends-of-the-rail-bridge-lawsuit-94d45e70?mod=hp_opin_pos_2

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/japanese-companies-are-making-big-promises-to-boost-their-stock-prices-e7561645?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-27/china-cuts-tax-on-stock-trading-to-boost-market-confidence?srnd=premium-europe China lowered the stamp duty on stock trades for the first time since 2008, marking a major attempt to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest equity market. ... The reduction has the potential to trigger a knee-jerk rally in China’s $9.6 trillion equity market, which is highly sensitive to policy shifts that impact market liquidity. The cut is a boon for Chinese brokerages as well as quantitative hedge funds that use rapid-fire trading strategies. ... They have also guided mutual fund managers to step up purchases of their own equity funds, cut handling fees on stock transactions and encouraged companies to step up share buybacks. China adjusted the stamp duty on stock trading several times in the past. In May 2007, it raised the rate to 0.3% to cool a rally that was drawing more than 300,000 new investors a day. In April 2008, the government slashed the levy to 0.1% to support the market after a plunge, spurring a bull run the following year.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/22/what-chinas-economic-troubles-mean-for-the-world Commodity exporters are especially exposed to China’s slowdown. The country guzzles almost a fifth of the world’s oil, half of its refined copper, nickel and zinc, and more than three-fifths of its iron ore. China’s property woes will mean that it requires less of such supplies. That will be a knock for countries such as Zambia, where exports of copper and other metals to China amount to 20% of gdp, and Australia, a big supplier of coal and iron (see chart 1). On August 22nd bhp, an Australian firm and the world’s biggest miner, reported its lowest annual profit in three years, and warned that China’s stimulus efforts were not producing changes on the ground. ... Weak spots in the West include Germany (see chart 2). Faltering demand from China is one reason why the country’s economy has stagnated of late. And some Western firms are exposed through their reliance on the country for revenues. In 2021 the 200 biggest multinationals in America, Europe and Japan made 13% of their sales in China, earning $700bn. Tesla is more exposed still, making around a fifth of its sales in China; Qualcomm, a chipmaker, makes a staggering two-thirds. ... Provided the slowdown does not escalate into full-blown crisis, the pain will remain concentrated. Sales to China account for only 4-8% of business for all listed firms in America, Europe and Japan. Exports from America, Britain, France and Spain come to 1-2% of their respective outputs. Even in Germany, with an export share of 4%, it would take China collapsing to generate a sizeable hit to its economy. ... But what if things go badly wrong in China? Under a worst-case scenario, a property meltdown could reverberate through the world’s financial markets. A study by the Bank of England in 2018 found that a “hard landing” in China, where economic growth fell from 7% to -1%, would cause global asset prices to fall and rich-world currencies to rise as investors rushed in the direction of safer assets. Overall, British gdp would drop by 1.2%. Although most Western financial institutions have relatively little exposure to China, there are exceptions, such as hsbc and Standard Chartered, two British banks.