UK

Do you have any opinion on Japan with regards on infliation, rates or growth? They are still keeping rates at 0, currency is in freefall, yet inflation is still not a problem? How could it be so? Why all their printing and spending did not increased infliation? Too much debt? Demography? Is it temporary, or is it something what awaits, if not US, then Europe (how is Italy different from Japan?) in the future, at least to some extend? https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/weak-yen-prodded-japan-central-bank-debate-inflation-pressure-minutes-2022-11-02/

"The theme park continued to operate rides for visitors stuck in the park during the closure on Monday, social media users reported." Whats not to like:)?

I believe it is a must read not only in Germany, but more like in whole Europe? I really liked it and his other books, and especially Black Obelisk, which is more fun and is about those hyperinfliationary years after WW1. This book together with similar real world expierences is basically is the reason I tend to avoid for a long term fixed income investmens:)

Xi is sending a letter: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/blinken-speaks-with-china-s-top-diplomat-in-latest-sign-of-thaw?srnd=premium-europe But US is sending back B-52: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/us-building-facility-to-base-b-52-bombers-in-australia-abc-says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/putin-plays-down-nuclear-threat-in-ukraine-as-he-lambasts-us Even as Russian troops have suffered a series of recent defeats against Ukrainian forces, Putin said his plan for what he calls his “special military operation” remained to ensure the security of Kremlin-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region. He made no mention of the sweeping goals of “de-Nazification” and “de-militarization” that he’d cited at the start of the invasion, when Russia failed in a lightning attempt to seize Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. Putin, whose public statements of his goals for the war have shifted in the months since he dispatched troops, didn’t explain the apparent omission. He described the neighboring regions of Ukraine that Russia illegally annexed last month as part of a historic ‘Novorossiya’ territory. His comments came in response to a question from the host of the Valdai event, foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov, who noted that “society doesn’t really understand what the plan is.” As Putin spoke, the independent Levada Center released a poll showing that for the first time, a majority of Russians now support talks to end the war, rather than continuing the invasion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rocky-treasury-market-trading-rattles-wall-street-11667086782 Andrew Kreicher, a director at Wells Fargo, said liquidity in Treasurys has been about the worst he has seen over a sustained period recently. “There are so many systems in other asset classes that use Treasurys as a building block,” he said. “If you have rot in the foundation, the whole house is at risk.” While many agree trading Treasurys remains smoother than during the worst moments of 2020’s pandemic-fueled market breakdown, the current unease has built gradually over months without a single precipitating event, said Deirdre Dunn, co-head of global rates at Citi. Some traders believe the Fed’s rapid interest-rate increases are the main cause. Treasurys—especially shorter-term notes—closely reflect expectations for the Fed’s overnight rates, so quick changes can cause choppy moves. This week, the Fed is expected to raise rates by 0.75 percentage point for the fourth straight meeting. Other traders lay some blame on rules enacted after the global financial crisis that make it more expensive for banks to keep Treasurys on their balance sheet. Big banks function as Treasury-market dealers, helping match buyers and sellers. When they step back, trading stalls, said Ariel da Silva, director of fixed income at Wealth Enhancement Group, a wealth-management firm. Given the current regulatory regime, “It doesn’t behoove them to take on the inventory,” he said. Investors rely on easy Treasury sales to obtain quick cash for debt payments, margin calls and a variety of other pressing short-term needs. When that process hits hiccups, financial trouble can spiral, said Jim Caron, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “If the Treasury market isn’t working, nothing is working,” he said.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exxon-tops-tech-giants-as-biggest-cash-producer-in-sp-500-2925629

If you short Apple because of China or something like that, than maybe, but even then, you probably could find better targets? Otherwise I do not understand this, it is probablly one of the best business in the world, maybe somewhat still overvalued, but how low you expect it to go down? In terms of BRK, I would be happy if they diworsified Apple somewhat, but not because of valuation etc, but because of Apples very high dependency on China at this point of time.

What is going on with this ESG crusade is extraordinary. From governments and banks to schools (I am almost afraid to say what I think to my child on related topics in order to stay politicaly correct:)) and investment forums. There are not enought good kindergardens in our coutry, yet we subsidise EVs from foreign manufacturers, which only rich can aford anyway:)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/andreessen-horowitz-went-all-in-on-crypto-at-the-worst-possible-time-11666769270?mod=hp_trending_now_article_pos2

GOOGL, META.

Here we go again: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peak-fossil-fuel-demand-is-possible-in-a-few-years-iea-says-11666843203?mod=hp_lead_pos6

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/worlds-dirtiest-man-dies-just-weeks-after-taking-his-first-wash-in-60-years/ar-AA13mGcq

Yes, I generally agree with that and (except for some adventures with china tech) has been waiting for that from like 2020 summer, and still at this point my exposure is mainly BRK, but I also think that some of those long duration stocks have already come down a good part of way, and also, that you should look further than 3-6-9 month in terms what could happen with economy/inflation/rates. These business (not only FANGs, but long duration-quality in general) not so long ago were valued at 30-35 PE. They generally are well diversified globally (no need to worry about currencies so much), have strong pricing power and low capital requirements, so are inflation proof business wise (like Sees candy from WB letters on infliation), also usually are debt free or net cash and recession resilient. The only problem from perhaps until now was valuation but this problem is getting fixed as we speak. A lot of them come from 30+ PE to <20, some even to 10+. No need to look at questionable former darlings with questionable business models. And I agree It could be still premature, but if I can easily see >10 return from such businesses long term, I think they are starting to be attractive, at least for me. 15 percent would be even better. but generally I think we are not there yet. Also re inflation, I really like to discus about it but do not like to have strong opinion on it. Because like just 3 years ago everyone was afraid of high debts, automation, robots taking jobs from people (where are those robots now?) and permanent disinflation. Now everyone are talking about labor shortages and sees permanent high inflation, deglobalization etc. Meanwhile Japan still lives happily in a 0 rates world. So who knows for sure how future or even Autumn 2023 will look like? If after 12 month from now we are back at no growth and disinflation, growth will come back in favor. As for Google, sure it could have temporary problems, but big picture, Google and Meta are still global online advertising duopoly, there are few real alternatives at this point from advertisers point of view, sure they are big at this point so recession could be more pronounce for them, than in 2009, but economy will come back at some point (*at least if nukes will not start to fly) and than it is like tollbooth on global growth. Not to mention still fast growing Cloud, AI and other bets in case of Google. Also this digitization, which was turbocharged during pandemic, I think it is far from over, Microsoft talks about just getting started, cloud based businesses seems still supporting this claim. Than again if one is afraid of technology changes, companies like UMG or LVHM or similar story maybe less growth but more visibility. How much cheaper then 18 PE you expect them to become? 15x so another -10 percent from there? I remember KO trading at some 12x F PE in 2009 spring, but not sure if probability of such scenario is high? UK

Yes, although I did not realized that until it was a reference to Berkshire:)

Well: a. google is still growing 10+ percent after last years covid boom of like 40+ percent (and cloud is growing almost 40 per cent). b. what multiple you would give to a capex lite, global business growing at 10 per cent? c. even if economy will slow drastically, how much value of a business one or two subpar (not even loss making in googl case) years constitutes? Of course it could get even cheaper and perhaps assumptions about business perspectives are even more important, but it is like first time from the years you mentioned (except for a brief period in 2020), when some of these really wonderful businesses (not only Google) are finally getting reasonably priced?

Googles 3q cc sales +11 on +39 last year. Wouldnt called it terrible:)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bullish-energy-stocks-esg-strive-asset-inflation-oil-gas-drilling-opec-technology-interest-rates-risk-underinvestment-warren-buffett-11666611839?mod=hp_opin_pos_6

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-the-crypto-story/?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify wall

Not good: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-23/xi-stacks-china-leadership-body-with-allies-cementing-control?leadSource=uverify wall President Xi Jinping stacked China’s most powerful body with his allies, giving him unfettered control over the world’s second-largest economy. Xi, 69, put six close associates with him on the Politburo Standing Committee, including former Shanghai chief Li Qiang, who appears set to become the next premier after Li Keqiang retires. The move effectively puts all of Xi’s men in key positions responsible for running the government, tearing down divisions between party and state instituted following Mao Zedong’s chaotic rule that ended with his death in 1976. The new lineup signals a greater emphasis on ideology over pragmatism in policy making for China, which now has fewer voices at the top to question Xi’s policies of Covid Zero, tighter control over the private sector and a more assertive foreign policy. In opening the party congress last week, a defiant Xi offered China up as an alternative to the US and it allies while calling for self-sufficiency in advanced technology.

This is interesting view: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-k-market-meltdown-prime-minister-uk-borrowing-tax-cuts-energy-subsidies-truss-resign-kwarteng-boe-11666273710?mod=hp_opin_pos_4 Economic growth, which brings with it higher interest rates, might now be viewed by many in the market as a bug rather than a feature. It’s terrible news if so. Britain has shown over the past month that it cowers in the shadow of a financial system that can no longer tolerate productive economic growth or the policies necessary to achieve it. Will other countries find the same to be true for them?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/treasury-yields-may-peak-before-end-of-the-year-gundlach-says

Yes, I do not have a strong view, but I agree with you om this. More importantly Buffett seems also on this side:). And these transitions are long and costly trends, so perhaps what happens to world economy or even China (if something happens) is much more important than that in the near/mid term. However if demand would collapsed in the short term due to one or another reason (I am not predicting it), do not be surprised those peak demand theories getting attention again:)

That is awesome post. I have seriously invested in bonds only once in my life, that is during GFC and Euro crisis, when you were able to get like >10 per cent yield from government bods shorter than 10 years duration. And since I try to look at least for 8-10 return in stocks, the same applies to bonds in my view. Only I still prefer shares, because i.e. if bonds is at 5 and shares of a good company at 20 PE, I much prefer the later, because it also includes growth and safety of not loosing complete/majority of purchasing power, in case inflation and currency would go Turkish style. I was not investing at the time, but was old enough to experience two currencies going to the toilet paper in my country:). I ques that shapes attitudes somehow:). But that framework of yours on looking at the 6 per cent of long term bond is very informative and a thing to think about!