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Everything posted by UK
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Would you be willing to completely copy another investor?
UK replied to Ver's topic in General Discussion
My goal is to make money and to have a great time, rather than to be very original, contrarian or what not, so personally I do not have shame or ego problems to copy or borrow an idea from anyone, but I use this (perhaps stupid sometimes:)) extra filter: I must understand it myself and it should make sense for me in the first place. I had some expensive lessons (IBM or even small position in ZINC:)), from copying more blindly:). I used to look for a new ideas from managers I would not be very afraid to give my money to manage. They should have a good long track record, most of their personal wealth in the same portfolio and their process should make sense to me. The list is getting shorter and shorter though (not least because of the performance criteria) and these days I also find more of either good cross confirmations or even initial ideas here on COBF. Viking and FFH 2022. Parsad and META 2022 Greg and JOE 2022. And so on. Or just recently, ERF idea was brought up in this board, but I think I heard about it from Sequoia initially and also our beloved MW participated:). Or I think Greg first wrote about RTO recently, while Peltz, whom I follow from the old days, was already on board. I also know a few good investors personally and I am ready to dig for their next big idea at any time. But I think everyone should find what works for him and what he is comfortable with. -
This chart is from here: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/ I agree forward PE is tricky, but it is somewhat normalized and I personally consider it an optimistic / can not get better view as of today. Though perhaps there are times when forward looking estimates later turn out to be to pessimistic. I am not sure this chart says very much about the markets future, perhaps more so about the level of the long term returns one could expect from current levels and at what level we are flying currently in case something big and unexpected happens, but in no way I see this as some kind of a timing tool, especially for the near term.
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to: [email protected] cc: [email protected] For your feedback and thank you letters. Please be polite as much as possible:)
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I do not think he touted 3G, I think he was very skeptical and tried to say this in a witty way:)
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For me personally it is much more clear what to do in a toilet situations, than the other, and I am starting to long for being in a really good (or should I say shitty?) one again:))
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The more of this, the better:))
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I remember Munger, adressing a question at AGM a while ago if KO would be better run under 3G, sharply noting, that 3G system (or at least its more extreme version) works well only for the next year or two after its implementation. I think later it become obvious he was quite right on this:)
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I think this is not a big tragedy in terms of the whole BRK universe and is fixable in both cases. Perhaps it is not very unusall for a very large organization to have such periods (not the best managers) for a while and it takes quite some time (perhaps 2-3 years at least) to notice any changes for the better.
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Thanks dealraker. From my part generally (and sure, not all cases or experts are the same) it is quite terryfying or quite bad sign, when managment or owners start hiring consultants or experts to advice how to run a company...as a former consultant myself, I have no advice for such managment and only one for owners: just change the managment:))
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Would love to know what dealraker thinks about this...
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Thanks! I admit what I am saying on these maters may sound funny for more informed investors. And if I would understand it is totally safe, it would be much more attractive than gold (I think I get this part). Would you agree that buying Bitcoin ETF instead of Bitcoin directly is a better option for less educated investors willing to participate in this anyway?
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"Some people would have cashed out. DeVocht didn’t."
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Would you be willing to completely copy another investor?
UK replied to Ver's topic in General Discussion
I did the same with this company some 15-20 x ago, when it was still called Hansen, but Monster was already an obvious hit:). I owned some KO at the time and was quite familliar with the soft drink/beer industries...but generally at anytime by looking back some 5 years I realise how stupid I was in one thing or another (and not only in investing). Somebody said that this is great as it a sign of progress and continues improvement, but then I can not stop thinking, what future stupid things I am doing presently:))) -
It is such a relief sometimes to remember it is still only ~30 B and not some ~300 B already:)
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Would you be willing to completely copy another investor?
UK replied to Ver's topic in General Discussion
I like this/his style of talk:)) -
Low trading volume, no business. When I was an analyst once (very briefly), this was the first thing explained to me, when considering what to cover:)
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https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/warren-buffett-only-wears-suits-made-by-a-chinese-entrepreneur.html Not about watch but funny:)
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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-03/chatgpt-s-advanced-voice-mode-is-an-uncanny-cultural-chameleon?srnd=homepage-europe
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You are right on EU insurance limits. It is up to 500 K in US though. Good point re ETF, I actually think this is perhaps the best way to invest in Bitcoin for unsophisticated crypto investors, such as me, also because I would not even know how to hold it myself safely:))
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Perhaps you are right, but these are insured, in some cases totally or to a some degree at least and generally also falls under state protection, so maybe this means a biger treshold for someone to attack them, not sure the same care would be applied to crypto assets? All this is way above my pay grade, just trying to understand how some people could be confortable with majority of their assets in crypto.
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Not to discourage you from spending time on your favourite topic, but please be aware of the confirmation bias. Could be a good idea of spending some time for thinking what might kill the thesis. Like the question: what if some kind of super computing (quantum?) will become awailable in the future, but only for a few organisations/countries at first? I know I asked this before, but it seems so far nobody has answered or I have missed it:)
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Nice, thanks!
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Would you be willing to completely copy another investor?
UK replied to Ver's topic in General Discussion
https://13f.info/13f/000108514624003861-h-h-international-investment-llc-q2-2024 US holdings: AAPL:) Is there any way to know how his total portfolio looks like?
