UK

As of today, except if size of total allocation will start to interfere with my sleep, I think I would not be worried until at least 1.5 BV and perhaps would still own a very big position up to 1.7 BV. Now, IIRC previously you have said, that the higher the multiple, the better, but I will think about this when/if we get there first:))

Totally makes sense to me!

My plan: lets just wait until this filters to every value (and/or other) investor and is repeated ad nauseam at every investing podcast, so instead of complaining about M7, FED and frothy market, they will finally get on board en masse. Then we will sure find out what it is really worth and what appropriate multiple is:)

Then:

Just give me a link:). I think if this is really real it would also be important for me to understand what he does (stock picking would be ok, trading some esoteric derivatives I am not sure) and his time frame (not sure how I would copy some HFT or even day trading).

Nice!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-01/dalio-says-china-s-leaders-face-whatever-it-takes-moment

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-01/japan-s-4-trillion-carry-trade-begins-to-slowly-unwind

And the sad confirmation: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-investigating-alleged-shooting-16-pows-by-russia-2024-10-01/

https://www.ft.com/content/2bb20587-9680-40f0-ac2d-5e7312486c75 Multiple European diplomats who attended last week’s UN General Assembly in New York say there was a tangible shift in the tone and content of discussions around a potential settlement. They note more openness from Ukrainian officials to discuss the potential for agreeing a ceasefire even while Russian troops remain on their territory, and more frank discussions among western officials about the urgency for a deal. ... Ukrainian public opinion also appears to be more open to peace talks — but not necessarily to the concessions they may require. Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the National Democratic Institute in the summer showed that 57 per cent of respondents thought Ukraine should engage in peace negotiations with Russia, up from 33 per cent a year earlier. ... If Ukrainians have warmed to the idea of negotiations, a majority — 55 per cent according to a KIIS polling in May — remain opposed to any formal cession of territory as part of a peace deal. “People want peace but they are also against territorial concessions. It is hard to reconcile them,” says Merezhko, the chair of the foreign affairs committee. However, the KIIS survey shows the share of respondents opposed to any territorial concessions has dropped sharply from a peak of 87 per cent early last year. It also found that Ukrainians might be open to a compromise whereby, in return for Ukrainian membership of Nato, Russian maintains de facto control over occupied parts of Ukraine, but not recognised sovereignty. ... As the KIIS polling shows, making any deal acceptable that allows Russia to stay in the parts of Ukraine it has seized since its first invasion in 2014 will hinge on obtaining meaningful western security guarantees, which for Kyiv means Nato membership. “The most important thing for us is security guarantees. Proper ones. Otherwise it won’t end the war; it will just trigger another one,” says a Ukrainian official. “Land for [Nato] membership is the only game in town, everyone knows it,” says one senior western official. “Nobody will say it out loud . . . but it’s the only strategy on the table.”

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fairfax-to-acquire-controlling-ownership-of-peak-achievement-athletics-302261917.html

Thanks for sharing John.

Elon Musk The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly. Lex Fridman (00:28:07) In the full menu of POWs in the US. Elon Musk (00:28:08) Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

Just shut down them out of these waters then: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/16/russia-oil-tankers-shadow-fleet-international-law-denmark-unclos/ Just kidding:), we have even worse situation (could well be a flashpoint) with their transit I think.

Same for me.

Thanks, fair enough! The example of South Korea is an interesting one, perhaps even somewhat simillar to this situation, maybe even with simillar outcome in the future, with at least most Ukrainian people ultimatelly living in the western world. But this would have not been possible in Korea without western intervention and without it, it will not be possible here. Despite of not all being succesful, such 'transitions' also is also very beneficial for the whole world in general and for US in particullar. I also think there is perhaps a mistake to treat Russia as some kind of a superpower, as Obama once noticed (and this hurts Putin to the core), since they are about Italian size power economically, despite owning all these nukes, which hopefully are not for the any actual use anyway:). This is my optimistic view of things and I will keep the pesimistic one to myself:)

I kind off agree with your thinking, that they do not want war per se, but one could always invert then. Reportedly Xi/CCP asked for US assurances as early as 2020 elections, also this year with EU, perhaps he/they are just too paranoid, who knows, I have no idea. But the question I ask is what choice would they have if e.g. in the next 4 years Taiwan will be encouraged to declare independance or something simillar happens?

Xerxes, I respect you and your deep knowlegle on such subjects and know that we had similar discussion. But I think this is completely not about good/bad or who are the moral ones (you are right here, most are immoral:)). But let me ask you, which immorals you wish to prevail and under which system you personaly would like to live? Easy decision for me personaly:)

May I ask how much capital are you willing to risk here?

I am afraid it is not only up to China to decide, this is important to understand. It is impossible to be certain in my view, same was said about Russia, before they did it. Btw I was almost 100 percent sure, they were bluffing.