UK

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/americas-billionaires-love-japanese-stocks-why-dont-the-japanese-f13ef087?mod=hp_lead_pos5 Japanese households put an average of just 11% of their savings into stocks and 54% in cash and bank deposits, according to Bank of Japan data released last month. That trails well behind the U.S., where households have about 39% of their money tied up in the market and only 13% in cash and bank deposits, according to Federal Reserve data. ... “The Nikkei might hit 40,000, god knows when,” said Heihachiro “Hutch” Okamoto, foreign equity consultant at retail brokerage Monex. “But most of our investors prefer U.S. stocks.” To Okamoto’s point, the most popular names traded on Monex daily aren’t Japanese stock indexes like the Topix or Nikkei, brand-name companies like Sony or even the “sogo shosha”—the trading houses that Buffett has invested in. Instead, they are all American names: companies like Nvidia, Tesla, Apple and Amazon.com, as well as funds tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. ... “Most people here think investing is very risky,” said Hidekazu Ishida, a special adviser at FinCity.Tokyo, which works with the government and the financial industry to try to boost investment in Tokyo. Being into finance comes off as “kakkowarui,” he added, referencing a word for uncool. Even some heads of companies are lukewarm about the idea of encouraging more individual investors to buy Japanese stocks. “I’m neutral about that,” said Takeshi Niinami, chief executive officer of whisky and beverage giant Suntory, when asked if he thought it would be a good idea for more Japanese people to invest in the market. Stock investing is risky, he said. And many Japanese people remain wary of participating in the market, because of the severity of prior downturns. “I think perhaps increasing interest rates is better for people,” he said.

It is a little bit offtopic, but I found it interesting: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/slow-boil-refugee-crisis-takes-its-toll-even-in-germany-dfdadaae Just over half of migrants who came to Germany in 2015 and 2016 have a job now, said Thomas Liebig, a researcher with the international migration division of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That is higher than in previous migration waves, he said, but far lower than in the U.S., where barriers to employment are lower and the lack of social benefits makes work imperative. U.S. data is less standardized, but a Department of Health and Human Services study found that of refugees who arrived between 2014 and 2018, 83% of men and 67% of women had full-time employment by 2019. I quess "small government" in this case just works better.

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/on-the-news/how-us-atacms-missiles-could-help-push-ukraine-back-into-crimea/E532E1AB-74C5-4E71-8B98-539B61E1511F

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html?fbclid=IwAR06WIuzVhT-RWId6IdF1wSMq02t-52t6JD5mVdjQYvzv5xyB7AjaYcWmAY “The weather can be a serious obstacle during advance, but considering how we move forward, mostly without vehicles, I don’t think [the weather] will heavily influence the counteroffensive,” Tarnavsky told Pleitgen in the interview. “Right now, neither the enemy nor us uses large formations, companies, battalions or brigades. We use assault squads, groups of 10 to 15 men,” he explained. “They conduct titanic work of concentrating enemy fire on them and using all the means they have to use to survive.” One of the reasons for the slow advance, the general said, was the fact that Russia had been able to learn some lessons from other Ukrainian offensives. “The Russians are learning quite fast, as they don’t have any other choice. If they don’t learn, they will be defeated sooner,” he explained. “I wouldn’t say they are adapting to our actions, as we also change our tactics.” He said Ukraine had also been adapting to using Western equipment, as well as Western tactics. When asked about rising resistance in the West to continuing weapons supplies to Ukraine, especially in the US, where some have voiced doubt about Kyiv’s chances of success, Tarnavsky said he respected their view. “Let it be the opinion of the skeptics. It’s not a competition and we don’t have a choice,” he said. “I understand somebody may have imagined large scale counteroffensive operations. But times are changing, enemy tactics are changing, weapons change.” “We have one goal – liberation of our territories. However hard it is we will keep on working. And I want to thank even the skeptics, their criticism also influences our task’s success,” he said.

Succession policy seems in place:) This is how it works, when the west decides it is not their business anymore: As Wagner’s operations in the Central African Republic grew, it offered services to other African governments that were under domestic pressure and felt abandoned by the West, often because of sanctions or concerns over human rights. ... Each country that Wagner entered was pulled deeper into Russia’s sphere of influence. Sytii helped run the nonmilitary side of that operation.

Some domestic investors are also voting with their feet: https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-economic-worries-spur-a-different-kind-of-shopping-spree-1321e607

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/09/21/western-help-for-ukraine-is-likely-to-diminish-next-year The year after next is also a lifetime away in terms of politics. In Europe, the political winds seem favourable to Ukraine. Polls conducted in June and July showed that 64% of Europeans favour military aid to Ukraine, with strong support not just in countries with a long-standing suspicion of Russia, such as Sweden (93%), but also in more distant member states such as Portugal (90%). Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, has been mindful of anti-war sentiment, notably within his own Social Democratic Party. He dithered for months before agreeing to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine. He still refuses to send long-range Taurus missiles, even though Britain and France have given Ukraine comparable weapons. Yet Mr Scholz has by now realised that public scepticism is mushy: as soon as he sends a new weapon, approval broadly follows. On September 18th his government announced another €400m ($429m) of arms, including ammunition, armoured vehicles and mine-clearing equipment. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, who provoked grumbling in Kyiv last year over his frequent phone calls with Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, and over his hesitation in sending weapons, is now among the most gung-ho of European leaders. France has long resisted expanding the eu, yet Mr Macron has become a fervent supporter of Ukraine’s accession to the bloc. A poll in July showed that 58% of the French backed this approach. Ukraine’s bid for eu membership is proceeding at a pace that would have astonished Europe-watchers just a few years ago. It formally became a candidate to join in June, 2022. This December, barring a shock, that status will be upgraded by the opening of detailed negotiations on accession. Ukraine is dazzling eu officials with its swift progress on the necessary reforms. It may still take years for Ukraine to become a fully fledged member, but the war seems to be speeding up the process rather than delaying it. ... In America, however, the outlook is much more divided and uncertain. On August 10th the White House asked Congress to authorise another $24bn “supplemental” budget for Ukraine, which would bring total American aid thus far to $135bn. Supporters of such assistance, among both Democrats and Republicans, constitute a clear majority of both chambers of Congress. Were the request put to a simple up-or-down vote, it would be approved relatively easily. But it is unlikely to be, because of America’s dysfunctional politics. A majority of the members of the House of Representatives may support Ukraine, but a small number of Republicans hold extreme anti-Ukrainian views, including Matt Gaetz, who has proposed inviting Russia to join nato, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, a conspiracy theorist who has promoted the absurd notion that aid to Ukraine is actually being siphoned off by donors to the Democrats. Since the Republicans have only a slender majority in the House and since the Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, does not want to rely on Democratic votes to push legislation through, the pro-Russia fringe has much more influence than its numbers would imply. The likeliest course is for Mr McCarthy to attach the supplemental budget to other important legislation, making it harder to derail. Past efforts in the House to deny Ukraine funding have been overcome, although each one attracts more Republican votes. Mr Biden already has congressional approval to send a further $6bn-worth of weapons to Ukraine from existing stockpiles. But after that there is likely to be a delay of several months while Congress contorts itself over the latest request. What emerges may be dribs and drabs of aid, rather than the big packages of last year. In the longer run, aid for Ukraine is fast becoming a partisan issue, which makes its prospects ever less certain. Republican voters, egged on by the scepticism of Donald Trump, their party’s likeliest nominee for president next year, have begun to question further aid to Ukraine. Democrats remain broadly supportive. The big budget deficit and high interest rates make politicians of all parties reluctant to rack up more debt. And even Democrats support the notion that America’s European allies should be the ones taking the initiative in conflicts on their own borders. And then there is the possibility that Mr Trump wins next year’s election. His policy on Ukraine is characteristically incoherent. In March he promised that he would settle the war in “no longer than one day”, before even entering office. “We don’t have ammunition for ourselves,” he complained in May, “We’re giving away so much.” But he denies he would push for a deal allowing Mr Putin to keep Ukrainian territory. “Nobody was tougher on Russia than me,” he said this week, insisting he would strike “a fair deal for everybody”.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/09/21/to-endure-a-long-war-ukraine-is-remaking-its-army-economy-and-society Ukrainians clearly have some concerns about how the country is being run. Approval of the army and the president remain sky high, but confidence in the country’s politicians in general is down from 60% in December to 44% in June. The share of Ukrainians who say the country is on the right track has also slipped (see chart). There is disquiet about corruption in particular. But 76% tell pollsters they do not want new elections until the war is over. Support for Ukraine’s independence is the highest it has ever been, at 82%. Most do not complain about restrictions on movement or other wartime curtailment of civil liberties. “War has become part of a new horrific normal,” says Darina Solodova, a sociologist with the United Nations Development Programme in Kyiv. Resistance to Russia’s aggression remains a unifying principle for the vast majority. “It is not the question of whether to resist or not, but who has done more or less for that resistance,” says Ms Solodova. Across Ukraine 42% say that even if Russia intensifies its bombing of cities Ukraine should keep fighting. Some 21% think that the conflict should be frozen without making any concessions to Russia. Only 23% think it is worth initiating negotiations. Even in the east and south, which have borne the brunt of the war, support for negotiations is relatively low, at 32% and 39% respectively. Only 5% of Ukrainians are willing to cede any territory to Russia and only 18% to forswear joining nato.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-21/hedge-fund-manager-jampel-stops-shorting-fossil-fuel-stocks?srnd=premium

Was reading attentively this very good discusion on equities vs bonds, but it seems will end up desiring to eat something from eggs, thanks:)

Thanks! This is very interesting, didn't knew such research is available. It also confirms some of my unexpectedly pleasant personal expierence in Denmark:). Would love to see more countries included.

“The dollar is a beast again,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/dollar-rally-is-crushing-one-of-the-most-popular-trades-of-2023#xj4y7vzkg Yet, I don't now how many times I have read in the 1H and at the start of the year how USD was supposed getting much weaker this year. It was very strong consensus.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1518d40-b065-44a6-ada2-7ee4a074d839 But first he had to warn the group’s largest shareholder about the potential losses and get him on board. “I called Warren Buffett and said, ‘We’re probably going to lose $4 a share, and I am not sure when billing is going to come back . . . But I think what we need to do is take care of our colleagues [and] take care of our customers. If we do that, I think, we’ll have long-term viability for our shareholders.’” Buffett, who bought most of Berkshire Hathaway’s Amex shares in the 1990s and now owns a 20 per cent stake, was sold. “‘The most important thing to take care of is your customers and your brand,’ he replied. ‘It’s hard to get customers back. And once you damage the brand, it’s damaged.’” ... Squeri has restructured rewards across the company, eliminating ratings for business units and dramatically expanding the bonus programme. Now the entire 77,000-person workforce is eligible for a chunky annual payment based on their individual performance and the company-wide results. Before the change, “you had a load of people [whose] motivation was that the company just stay in business,” Squeri says. “Now, their motivation is, how can we make it better?”

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/americas-biggest-landlords-cant-find-houses-to-buy-either-ea893213?mod=hp_lead_pos2 “The reality is the rental-rate increases, as aggressive as they’ve been, have not kept up with home-price appreciation,” he said.

This is a very good point! So from almost 17 to 13 per cent. Almost all improvement in CR and all structural? Also, if I recall correctly, Prem talked about scale needed, while was acused for empire building...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-20/only-fund-beating-nasdaq-long-term-is-defying-stock-picking-odds?srnd=premium-europe For active managers, the math is stark. Out of thousands of mutual funds, literally only one beat the Nasdaq 100 over the last five, 10 and 15 years. It did so by boiling down stock picks to about two dozen companies and riding almost all of them to gains. ... The futility of playing against benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 was underlined in a report last month by Bloomberg Intelligence, then got a widespread public airing by investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said indexes provided superior gains “without you having to do any work or diligence.” Turns out intellect and hard work are pretty useless, too, thanks to dynamics that have increasingly come to dominate the active-management debate. ... “We buy small positions and don’t sell,” Ron Baron, who has been running the fund since its 1992 launch, explained from his office. “The process is to try to find great businesses that have competitive advantage.” Case in point: The fund first invested in Tesla in 2014. By 2020, it was about a third of the portfolio, Bloomberg data show, which finally prompted the team to reluctantly trim its position to assuage concerned clients. It hasn’t bought any additional shares since, but the electric car maker is now 41% of its long positions again. Its second-largest holding is Space Exploration Technologies Corp., a private company also run by Elon Musk. The rest include everything from Charles Schwab Corp. to Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-tactics-put-russia-on-the-defensive-in-the-black-sea-4d3f492d?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Commercial vessels have entered Ukraine’s main port of Odesa without asking permission from Russia for the first time since the war began—showing just how much the balance of power has changed in the Black Sea. By imposing an asymmetrical war that relies on domestically produced naval drones and missiles, and that targets Russians ships in their own home bases, Ukraine has eroded much of Russia’s vaunted naval superiority. Now, it is taking the battle to Russia itself.

Luca, I really suggest you to read or believe less of the propaganda by Russia or China! https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nearly-90-ukrainians-oppose-territorial-concessions-russia-poll-2022-09-15/ I knew it was not good idea to point a finger:), but maybe because Germany still does not spend even 2 per cent from GDP as per NATO requirement, while Poland is already on its way up to 4 per cent? Not to mention, that the whole damned situation was also perhaps encouraged quite substantially by the policies of Germany (and former US administration) in the last 10 years. But I beg you not to ask elaborate me further, this was bad idea already:). In general I love and wish success for Germany as much as US!. Also looking forward to see permanently stationed German brigade in my country as soon as possible:)

Thanks. Is it this one: https://youtu.be/gpxl2exX9uY?si=FpD6A8ecxjI61bQS ?

Since I am entitled to a different opinion...:) https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/09/12/the-annual-cost-of-the-war-in-afghanistan-since-2001-infographic/ If US spent almost 1T or 50 B per year in this case for God knows what reasons, I would argue it would be almost no brainer to spend half of this sum yearly for some time in Ukraine for a many good reasons. Not least that the large part of the current support is via older military equipment, due for replacement, but more importantly, because fighting in this case is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by almost 90 per cent of its population. Europe in general and Germany in particular should bear more of the financial burden though.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-to-clues-inside-poland-4ed20422 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

I understand. But it still looks more like a growing pains, than some insurmountable problems. Mostly everything is fixable. People are still flocking to North America like crazy, not without a reason. Were else on earth is a better place?

However, what is also interesting: And while such distress does seem to be fueling an increase in properties available for sale, there’s still such a shortage of inventory that prices haven’t substantially fallen. It’s all threatening to further aggravate the shortage of all housing types in Canada, hurting homebuyers and renters alike. “Everything is in a really bad place right now,” said Danielle Levy, a real estate broker in Toronto who works with both buyers and renters. “People aren’t able to afford the rent. People are not able to afford paying their mortgage. People are not able to fulfill their goal to purchase a home to start a new life with their families. We need a lot more supply in the market.” It seems this is also the case in other previously hot markets, like Australia, Great Britain etc. This article points to some interesting reasons: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/09/06/the-growing-global-movement-to-restrain-house-prices Like: In many English-speaking countries, inspired by Victorian worries about “slums”, planning laws tended to prioritise detached houses. For urban planners, such as Ebenezer Howard, density was seen as akin to crowding. In packed industrial hotspots, “downzoning” and slum clearance were used to flatten cities and spread them out by force. The writer George Orwell was sceptical of the proceedings: “If people are going to live in large towns at all they must learn to live on top of one another,” he declared. But he reckoned that many workers in Britain did not “take kindly to flats”. Today far fewer citizens of English-speaking countries live in flats than elsewhere. In England 80% of people now dwell in houses, and just 6% in flats in buildings taller than three storeys. In France 44% of people live in apartments, as opposed to houses. In cities including Dublin, Los Angeles and Sydney, sprawl is running out of road. At the densities allowed by law, almost all of the land within a reasonable commute of city centres has already been “built out”. Instead, new subdivisions are built in separate towns, perhaps 50 or 60 miles away from the core, with residents typically facing punishing commutes by car to work. (In Britain these workers typically leap over the “green belts” around cities within which construction is mostly illegal.) Anyway, maybe except for the Sweden and some regional markets, so far housing prices seems to be holding up or even begin to rise again in some places.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/canada-rental-market-squeezed-as-landlords-face-brunt-of-high-interest-rates?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/berkshire-shows-unusual-risk-appetite-in-wildfire-court-fight?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg