Marco Van Basten

Why? They laid out a plan for 10% organic annual revenue growth at their 2023 capital markets day. Did 4% in 2023 and 4% in 2024 and Q1 2025. What will change/accelerate growth? Do you know why the CFO left abruptly? Thank you.

It is a brilliant piece of financing - particularly the 2055 paper is very cheap. My only complaint is I wish instead of 2035 and 2055, they did the whole offering as 2055.

Does anyone know of an ETF that mimics performance of long term TIPs (Treasury inflation indexed securities) that also has long term options available? Thank you.

Do you have a quick thesis that you can share? Where do you get their annual reports in English? The website only seems to have English annuals through FY 2019. Thank you.

You need to remember that Jamie Dimon is usually concerned/bearish. If you read his speeches going back 20+ years, he is almost always worried, which makes sense for someone who is running a bank levered 10x+. He is also essentially saying that he would not be surprised by a 15% stock market drop. However, I would not be surprised by a 20% stock market drop, we have had at least a dozen of them in the past forty years. There is a difference however between saying that I would not be surprised and that something will happen. (I would not be surprised if my 18 year old nephew knocks up his 18 year old girlfriend, but I would put the odds on that at 1%.) A year or two ago, he said that he was prepared for a range of 2-8% rates on a 10 year bond. Now what would have been the probabilities that he would have placed on either scenario would be more useful.

Or Buffett - there are more banks than good bankers. Jamie Dimon today at JPM's investor day - I would NOT be a buyer of credit today.

When Jamie Dimon speaks, I listen, but why should I listen to Jane? Also, clearly hedge funds were wrong in selling in April rather than buying, at least in the short-run. A 20% move is nothing to sneeze at. Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring, but hedge funds are hardly, as the French would say, etalons of foresight. Their long term performance as a group has been abysmal.

@Castanza, you are probably right. I made a mistake. Good luck on the position.

Thank you. Do you know what their plans are regarding the capital that they are generating? Are they going to be buying back stock in the future, or are they committed to growing the business, and where will the growth come from? Thank you.

I agree that it is very well run, 1.6% ROA is proof and efficiency ratio is excellent. However isn't capital allocation horrible? (They did do a big buy-back in 2024, I will grant you that.) Why is the stock only up 5x in 25 years? Unless I mucked something up, it is roughly 6.6% price + 1.9% dividend, just and 8.5% annual return. Also, there is hardly any growth? What I am missing? What attracts you and why? Thank you.

Are you referring to UNH? I am glad that you are up on your calls. I would be playing it via option spreads since 50% implied vol is tough to overcome. Look, 2017 EBIT was $17bn, 2024 was $34bn, what caused this growth? Why is $34bn a sustainable level? In the long run, healthcare cannot continue to grow as a % of GDP. Look, I don't know this name well, but I would be surprised if $34bn is a level from which the company will grow. I think upcoding is a real problem, and I think MLRs will go higher than 85% that they had before. Why are their margins so much higher than the rest of the field? You are right that large cap names don't get beat up this much often, but here, in my opinion, the profitability/business model is in question. Also, given the risks, if its growth = inflation, it should probably be a 13-14 p/e, and not 16, as it is riskier than the typical stock market name in my opinion. I will again admit that I know very little about the situation, and I wish you luck.

Where will the growth come from? Also from what profitability level are you assuming zero growth? Although like you, I often invert and say what is priced in? Thank you.

Calls are at a 50% implied vol, very hard to make money when you pay that. What makes you think that the stock is cheap fundamentally? In other words, what do you think of the sustained level of profitability and why? Thank you. I agree with you that normally insider buying is a fantastic signal, in this case though, I wonder whether the insiders are trying to "paint the tape."

Thank you for the pushback. You could be right, although the math is not correct. These were June 2027 Leaps call spread, it would be more like 25 months. Moreover, given that I paid 50 points for a 200 vs 320 June 2027 call spread, when the stock was $260, I would make money at maturity even if the stock was flat. I generally don't buy options at 50% implied volatility. Normally I don't trade, and certainly not for a 10% gain in the stock price. However, in this case, it is not clear to me what the ultimate profitability will be and the ultimate valuation. If for argument's sake the profits go back to 2017 levels, then the stock is overpriced. I find plenty of very attractive opportunities, where I am much more certain than in the case of UNH. (Chubb and Sun communities - SUI being two examples.) I bought them for a quick trade, expecting a quick bounce and spat them out. In general, I agree with you, I normally hold stocks for a long time, my typical holding period is five years plus, and I have held positions for decades. I just thought that after the collapse on Thursday, we would see insider buying on Friday, the stock would rally on the news, and I could flip my shares for a quick gain.

Sold the UNH calls spreads that I bought yesterday. The stock is up from $260 where I bought and I will take a 10% one day gain on a company that nobody can figure the earnings power of.

Who bought Berkshire or Gates? 5233 apparently has a US cement & aggregates business, great catch. Did you do the work? Thank you.

Who are the competitors? Why did they go public? Who owned this pre-IPO? What will they use the proceeds for? Thank you.

UNH call spread: june 2027 long 200 short 320, paid $50 points with the stock at $259

Unfortunately, it does not always happen that way. Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Stalin's USSR & Putin's Russia are good counter-examples.

You guys are funny. Name me one successful macro trader, besides Druckenmiller/Soros? Why even waste brain cells on what is unpredictable?

EBIT has doubled since 2017. Why does this business deserve to exist? Why does this business have $34bn of EBIT? In the long run, we cannot have healthcare to continue increase as a % of GDP. So where will the growth come from?

Chubb and Sun communities