Marco Van Basten

I own Arcosa.

Nazis executed dozens of my relatives. I have visited several concentration camps. I don't need books to tell me what happened. You pontificate here about something you know nothing about. I have yet to see a suggestion from you or anyone else how to: a) get hostages back; b) punish terrorists what they did; c) make sure that people who voted and supported and continue to support Hamas never again support an organization that is dedicated to wiping a neighboring country of the map. Come up with suggestions and then we can discuss. All this hand waving is irrelevant. Tell me your solution and why it will work!

Check your messages for an idea that you might like

This is just wrong. You cannot sit in T-bills if you would like to preserve capital in real terms after tax. Historically, T-bills returned inflation before tax, and negative 1% after inflation and taxes. T-bills are NOT a store of value nor are they preservation of capital. They are a destroyer of value over time. Exception is countries like Switzerland, which abhor inflation, and where t-bills can actually be a store of value. However even in Switzerland, wealth tax might result in your wealth declining if you hold it in T-bills. Unfortunately, one has to invest in productive assets in order to outpace inflation after tax. Unfair, but it is a fact.

Research report from Wells Fargo dated earlier this week. It claims that tech and AI can reduce operating ratio by 500-900 basis points. This implies anywhere from 10-25% EBIT increase depending on the railroad and cost savings, and even more on EBITDA less cap ex (since maintenance cap ex exceeds depreciation), so unlevered free cash flow might be up 12-30%, and levered free cash flow up 15-35%, depending on the outcome and company.

Procter & Gamble announced that they will fire 7000 people, or 15% of non-office jobs or 7% of total employment over the next year or two. I wonder if there is a lot of fat in many US firms, and if they and the government slim down some, it could a lid on inflation from both supply side (lower costs) and demand side (lower incomes.)

I would disagree. Clearly Costco, Chipotle, HD, MCD did insanely well for decades under different management teams. Manufacturers again can have a moat, hell he is invested in two - GE/Safran.

Well, it has not been passed. One of course never knows, but I would definitely assume that something version of this will eventually get passed. European governments need the money, and this also ties in nicely with their philosophies.

Same here.

Article on Bloomberg stating that the European governments are considering a special tax on defense firms to make sure that the extra profits generated by defense companies from higher arms spending by European governments end up in the pockets of taxpayers and NOT shareholders...

When the government sells assets, you usually get a bargain. Mutual companies going public is another fertile field.

So I bought Tel Aviv stock exchange in December of 2019. The thesis at that time was: it was a demutualization and if Tel-Aviv stock exchange achieved revenue and EBIT as a % of Israel's GDP that London Stock exchange achieved vs UK GDP, the stock would be a 10x. Now clearly London was an international financial center, and Tel-Aviv wasn't, however I felt that the tech innovation+economic growth in Israel offset that. In addition, if Israel ever managed to integrate the Haredim and the Arab minority into the economy fully, it's economy would literally experience a step change. That would be the icing on the cake. In terms of position sizing, it was roughly a 5% position at inception, and despite the portfolio compounding at 19.8% per year since then, the position grew as a % of the portfolio due to the stock being up 5x if I am not mistaken. In a non-taxable account, I cut the position in half, but in a taxable account, I don't see a reason. I would not be a buyer here just because I see better opportunities elsewhere (Airbus, New England Realty - a non-starter for you in Canada, sand/gravel/cement plays, St Joe, Chubb, Sun communities, BLDR - sized it small and playing via a 2027 call spread, Canadian Pacific, KSB3 - sized its small, Robertet.) So yes, if I started with a clean sheet tomorrow, I would not buy it, let alone make it a 10% position. However, I still think that it can compound at 10%+ per annum over the next decade, and I think I can probably make 15% per annum over the next decade in the name. By the way, as an American, I cannot do this, but as a Canadian, you might be able to: supposedly Iranian and Iraqi equities are super cheap.

European indices have different composition than the US indices. Europe has no equivalent of MA/V, MCO/SPGI, no equivalent of MSFT/META/GOOG/NVDA yes there is ASML. My point is that Europe has different businesses than the US, so it is impossible/impractical/foolish to compare multiples in Europe vs US. So you cannot compare market multiples, that makes no sense. I just looked, my portfolio is 60%+ non-US, but it is driven by bottom up analysis.

I am sorry, but Microsoft should be more highly valued than Deutsche Bank. I could never understand how you could compare multiples across markets.

Do you own Euro denominated assets because you like the assets or you don't like the dollar? I think for the past 15+ years, 50%-60% of my portfolio has been invested in non-US securities, but that was due to bottom up analysis, not top-down macro bets.

You don't like Miele or Bosch?

TIPS are great, provided that the government does not miscalculate inflation. I have my doubts as to how accurate government inflation statistics are given what happened to housing prices, education costs, healthcare, et all, even refrigerators that used to last 70 years now last 10 because of electronics (how do you adjust for the fact that the useful life is down by 83%), yet somehow inflation is 2%...

Are you aware of any solutions that have worked in the past? My imagination frankly fails me. I am curious to hear what you think since you know the region very well.

No, hell no.

Have you looked at long term munis? They seem to be cheap relative to treasuries

You know what I would do...

What will drive EBIT growth? How do you overcome 10% volume drag, 10% price hikes are not sustainable anymore. Or do you think that MO can continue to post 8%+ annual price increases in cigarettes, and hence keeps EBIT growing at inflation?

Aerospace bucket: Safran/GE, Transdigm and Airbus. Roughly 20-22%. Bought TDG in June of 2022, GE in March of 2024, Safran in 2022, Airbus - April of 2025. Sand/grave/crushed stone/cement bucket: MCEM, MLM, CRH, ACA & Heidelberg materials. Roughly 22-25% of the portfolio Insurance: 20% of the portfolio - Fairfax, Progressive and Chubb Tel-Aviv stock exchange - 13% of the portfolio New England Realty - 13% of the portfolio CASY, JOE, CDI FP, MSGE, Ashtead plc, URI, CP, GHC, SUI = another 40%. Some positions are held through LEAPS, and exposure is measured on a delta basis, hence gross long exposure is higher than 100%.

What is the reason then? Where do you see EBIT and dividends of MO in 2035 and why? Thank you.