Marco Van Basten

That's the study I refer to.

I think his returns have been quite poor for the past 15 years. Look a) the game became much harder. I remember buying ASR in 2003 at 5x free cash flow and IBA at 2-4x net income, meanwhile cash exceeded market cap. Things like Darling in 2003, AMNF in 2009, et cetera. There were plenty of bargains like that in the late 1990s - early 2000s. You generally don't find such opportunities anymore. I think he just hoarded cash hoping for opportunities like that, and they never came. b) Also, I think analysis/paralysis got him and his firm (he alluded to it) in 2008-2009, 2018, 2020, 2022, April of 2025. c) Most of the gains in the last 10-15 came from owning a very small sliver of the stock market (Bessbinder claims that this has been the fact for a century) and he just didn't own any. d) His style was distressed debt, not buying great business cheaply and I remember in 1998-2004, we did not buy "bullet-proof" paper in distressed unless it was north of 10%, and unsecured where we would own the company potentially post bankruptcy at less than 25% IRR to resolution. I don't think this exists anymore.

Fair point. Your response reminded of Bill Zeckendorf's salami technique... Look him up, a brilliant NYC builder who blew up a few times. His sons built 15 Central Park West in NYC In 2007

You are just jealous that the last two treasury secretaries were Yale graduates while nobody from Duke has been in the job for a while...

No, because if US imposes a 25% tariffs on toys made in China/Vietnam, it will be paid entirely or mostly by China/Vietnam. It all depends on who has the power in the relationship.

Dude, what are you smoking? What sole producers are you talking about? What windfall rake? Have you heard of elasticity of demand? Why do you automatically assume that US needs patent theft to manufacture things? Last time I checked, it was Europe, Canada, India and China that engage in patent theft, and when Canada forces US pharmaceutical companies to sell at 1/5 the price, that is theft. What have you in Canada or Europeans in Europe or Indians in India have actually invented in the past 20 years, besides two companies - ASML and Novo Nordisk? @dwy000, tariffs are not automatically paid by importer, they are allocated based on elasticity of demand. If India tomorrow imposes 100% tariffs on jet engines, it ain't going to be GE/Safran that will pay, it will be Indian airlines.

I don't think that Berkshire will be allowed to buy shares of any railroad companies due to ownership of BNSX. They might be allowed to buy CSX as a whole, but at the time of purchase of CSX, I think it had to sell shareholdings in other railroads.

We need to discuss it here. The politics section is unfortunately no longer relevant to investing. Out of 100 posts, there is one that might have a bearing on investing, so it is easy to miss.

Not a sucker's bet, since normally the counter-party would be fully hedged and collect a spread on a swap versus its funding costs.

You are 100% right. Several times I typed up a post, got distracted, then tried to post, the message would pop up and my post would disappear.

Yeah, seems like a good idea. What cap rate do you think it trades based on 2026 numbers? Thank you.

I thought so too

Rumours of UNP bidding for CSX/NSC and then Berkshire bidding for the other one. That will increase competition for CP/CNI.

You are trying to step over six foot hurdles. Just say, GE/SAFRAN/Airbus + rocks, and forget the rest

Why should we provide humanitarian aid to Gaza? We cannot afford to feed the entire world, particularly people who hate us. Gaza's population doubles every decade or two. What they need is condoms, not food.

Do you know how much in aid have we given to Israel since Oct 7th of 2023? (I don't and that is why I am asking.) As for what US interest is, I think, living in NYC, it is to deny Iran a nuke. We screwed up by letting North Korea and Pakistan have it, and Iran in my opinion is more dangerous than either.

Okay, but the 2026 deficit is projected to be at 2.9%, high, but manageable. The question is what will happen in the future, and unless you assume constant war, why worry?

@changegonnacome, Israel was not running 6% deficits as a % of GDP before Oct 7th of 2023. Deficits are normal in war time, and if you check deficit forecast for say 2026, it is under 3%. Similarly, to say the cost of supporting Israel's war with Iran will exceed the cost of Iraq or Afghan war is hard to understand. Both cost over a trillion dollars, did the US spend more than $20bn on supporting Israel since Oct 7th of 2023?

Ages are 10, 7, and 4. I loved Call of the Wild, thank you, and yes, Robinson Crusoe was great, thank you for the reminder. @John Hjorth, Animal Farm was great, particularly since I knew Soviet history well. I will give the oldest one Animal Farm. @73 Reds, Atlas Shrugged is an interesting suggestion. Yes, Kurt Vonnegut is very good, and I should give them Asimov and Jules Verne.

Please suggest any good books that you think kids should read. Can be anything - biographies of great men - Ben Franklin or Marie Curie. Poetry, history, science et all. Thank you.

How old are your kids? How many? What did you do? Where did you go in Paris? Anywhere besides Paris? What would you recommend? I apologize for so many questions, but my wife wants to take our three kids to Paris next year, so while we have been there a dozen times and love Europe, this will be the first time for the kids and I am a bit apprehensive...

I don't know where you are geographically, but I can tell you that in many parts of the country including Northeast, and as well as any place with vacation homes will be very profitable for a handyman.

@Xerxes, thank you. I looked at Kaspi, but passed.

Thank you, that's good feedback. I am in the US.

Actually, if Prem never plans to sell, then he does not want a high multiple since it will cost him more to buy back stock