whatstheofficerproblem

Looks like some good talent is on the rise on the country side of music. TV On is beautifully written song, no sophistry and good chords, I like it. Tail Light, Porch Light, Miller Lite is also good.

It already has. Most institutional money on the public investment side is now in Quant funds (3x in the last 10 years). There was a financial times report on state of AUMs between Quant/Multi Manager/SM Discretionary over the years. This is what the said quant funds use. They use AI/ML but much of it is based on already existing data. These algos can predict movements in a said environment but they can't of course predict noise like Trump's tantrums and compounders. For each good quant fund there are millions that print miserable numbers. We can say it's the same with all type of funds but LPs are salivating at the word quant and this has basically led to a VC like moment where you have LPs pulling money out of SM funds to throw them into the most random quant funds. Some funds are quantitative but not pure quant. For example - RenTech, Systematica are examples of pure quant funds. Here we have only analysts who work the model and much of the trading & book mgmt is done by the model itself. Then we have quantitative/quantamental where the algos play a role albeit we have PMs managing the book. Every single fund today is to some extent 'quantitative'. AI will help decision making but cannot replace it imo. So if you're an experienced PM at one of the big platforms then your career is safe. Analysts like myself are already at risk. Although, I would say that the grunt work i.e. excel monkey part of our jobs can be replaced and not the 'thinking' aspect of it because of 'decision laundering'. Let's say a PM decides to fire all analysts and run the shop himself, he gives AI his thoughts and transcripts to come up with an informed decision of where the stock is headed. The said thesis was wrong and performance went left tail, he will look like an idiot to his LPs if he said he used AI to make that decision. Instead, analysts like me can take the blame. The above is the reason why most big platforms despite spending billions on building in-house quant platforms still have analysts subordinate PMs. Idea generation and blame can't easily be outsourced.

Can AI replace grunt work? Of course it can. But anything that requires dealing with the unknown, like investing for example will be hard for AI to replicate. Like Spek rightly says above, Fingerspitzengefühl! The sensory aspect of a human cannot be replaced. Not yet atleast.

Spek, you better rephrase that But good article. Something I have recently realized and agree with though is that the more mediocre/bad an investor is, the more he/she seems to think AI & Robotics will be revolutionary.

Strong against the weak and weak against the strong. This works fine and this has always been the US' approach even without Trump in the equation. The only problem is, Trump's mental capacity to distinguish between strong and weak is blurred by his ego. Way to go, a reported called out TACO today, last thing you need is to remind him he's gonna chicken out. It's like when you're about to do a chore and someone reminds you again that you have to do it and suddenly you don't feel like doing it anymore. The amygdala response, we'll have to put up with it for now unfortunately.

Hahaha, Thank you! the game made a lot of people rich, and some even good investors. I think learning to construct a L/S book is an essential skill these days. LPs have stopped valuing the long only approach. On your other comments, while I don't have an opinion on the type of goods, what I do know is that Trump is punishing other countries for China. This whole thing was to get to China is my thinking. If they concede and settle, we'll likely be past tariffs. But alas, neither China nor Trump wants to backdown. Hopefully, he will Chicken out when the pressure starts building, but the markets will be in the gutter until then.

My livelihood for the next 4 years depends on the markets going upside, ballistically so. C'mon Trump, stop this madness and make the markets go up. Why does it have to be this way when it's finally my turn to suck onto some of that 2/20 money?

The thing with Pakistan Vish which I really envy is that their sense of 'ummah' unites them in such a way that they share a common visceral hatred for the 'kufr'. This unites them at times of crisis and it has been their modus operandi for a while. Meanwhile in India we have people who take some sick pleasure in defending literal terrorists for god knows what reason. The infighting within Pakistan you see i.e. Balochistan etc. is because when you have eradicated all the non-believers, your instinct is to create a new non-believer. Since the idol worshippers are all already erased, you now need to fight about who the real follower of the religion is. Folks in Bangladesh just cut a 100 yr old Banyan tree yesterday because Hindus & Buddhists used to worship it before independence. Make that make sense. There always has to be a non-believer to cut down.

A complete population transfer when they had the chance in 1945-47 was the way. Pakistan eradicated the minorities in their country while in India Muslims are >20% of the population, have their own law board and personal laws. India at this point is a quasi-sharia republic. I really do wish Modi was even a modicum of the dictator the western media portrays him to be. The unfortunate reality of India is that the unelected have too much power there (Judges). The unity of ummah is such that we have Muslims in India whose hearts bleed for Gaza yet not a single tear for their fellow countrymen who die just up north. I literally have schoolmates who went to the middle east to join certain terror outfits. The west will soon see what will happen when you concede even a little with this denomination. Already asking for sharia in UK & AU. Pockets of Michigan are so homophobic that there is stone pelting going on there. Next demand will be for a separate nation from within. The moderate provides his shoulder so that the extremist can place a gun on it and fire.

Pictures taken of parts of an aircraft that crashed in Indian-administered Kashmir show the label of a French manufacturer, but experts said it was not possible to say whether the part came from a Rafale aircraft. Interesting, everyone is claiming something. Let's wait and see, would be a shame if this is true. Interesting tidbit, the Rafale caused such waves in India that when I was young, my friends and I used to think that Dassault was the country and France was the company.

I agree with this 100%. I visit family in Iowa every Christmas, given the median age there it always breaks my heart to see the old folks around try to shovel the snow with much pain. The kids visit like once a year so I asked some of the neighbors why they put themselves through all of this painstaking labor at their age, while the prospects of moving to Florida is something that crossed their minds, they just couldn't afford it. It should also be noted that moving becomes an even bigger hurdle as you age. At 60 they simply can't just start from scratch in a totally different state. I'm in my early twenties and even I find it a pain to relocate just miles away when a lease ends. There is also some sentimental value at play here. Most of the folks I talked to were either farmers or worked at Deere. The house they're living in was their first home and they've been there most of their lives, raised their children there and so on or was passed down from their fathers. When you've been accustomed to a feeling of 'home' it gets very emotional and hard to part with it. This is not the case with rich folks who are usually accustomed to a nomadic lifestyle.

Just visit Himachal instead. Sure, they'll charge 150/- for a plate of Maggi, but you can return alive at least and the tour guides won't be complacent in an organized pogrom.

Spek, please tell me how the underlying problem can be solved. Pakistan's foreign minister admitted on international media that his govt is and infact has been funding terrorist camps for decades. You haven't seen these monsters upclose, I can tell you it is quite the radicalizing experience. This has been debunked, the 5 jets news was 'claimed' by Pakistani media. GOI reported that all pilots & jets involved are safe and returned home.

I recently came across this very interesting 1Q17 letter from Horizon Kinetics. The original cannot be found anymore, so here is a link from ValueWalk: https://www.valuewalk.com/pe-not-pe-turn-90-22-three-easy-steps/ If anyone here as the original PDF, please share. I found the methodology used by Horizon Kinetics very interesting, given that 2017 was a long time ago, I decided to run the same experiment once again. I used python and yfinance module to scrape the market caps as well as earnings for each ticker in the index and here are the results. Given the recent volatility and broader sell-off thanks to de-grossing, the mkt caps have taken a big hit. The combined mkt cap of the QQQ was ~$24.7T and the combined earnings on this was ~$931.9B, so the P/E has actually gotten better since 2017 and is now at ~26.5x earnings. Note that there was also a ton of rebal in the last 8 years. I also did the same with the Russell 2000, and here is where things get interesting. The combined mkt cap on the Russell 2000 was ~$2.7T but the earnings were just a meager $1.88B, so that brings the P/E of Russell to 1442.7x which is ridiculous. Goes to show just how many companies are bleeding money. Mark Hulbert said in 2017 that when Vincent Deluard did what HK did with the Russell 2000, the P/E was 78.7x. Russell also did rebalance, but looks like the discrepancy has gotten worse. While the QQQ has on paper become cheaper, Russell has become 18x more expensive. What do you guys think of this? Let me know if you want to try this with another index, as long as yfinance has the data I should be able to get the numbers.

Shitshow. Diplomacy should be an affair, hide it from the mistress. Why would you air it out in the public, when you don't even have strong points to begin with. Came off as very immature, not something a president should be doing. The only winners in a war are those who play for both sides.

Also, the EU should come out of the notion that it's problems are the world's problems and the world's problems are not it's problems. This isn't the colonial era, nobody owes them anything. Fight your own wars. I don't see why any country should be willing to foot the bill for a war that doesn't affect their taxpayers at the cost of the said taxpayers.

Yes, gents please. Fight among yourself, but entertain me. Maybe we should all contribute some money and have Parsad set up a trust, then lever up to buy a small country. Why not actively participate in geopolitics?

I'm a sucker for well written yet simple to understand music, this one has been on repeat for the last few days.

Sold NVDA puts for a healthy profit, could have made much more if I waited through the day, but I know better than to get greedy with options.

Added to IREN under $10. KWEB.

I find it funny how Kuppy is bullish on FL land. I don't know if anyone on here has covered it, but Kuppy himself bought a waterfront condominium in FL in 2014 for ~$500K & today the units in that building sell for >$2M. ~$1,600-$2,000/sqft which is in Miami Beach & the price is a function of this location being hot. Looking at listings in Bay County, where JOE has part of their, I could find land retailing for as high as ~$930K/acre & as low as ~$40K/acre depending on how much of that is trees, flat land, closeness to the ocean etc. I think with that in mind, his price range of $57,500 to $92,200 an acre makes sense to me considering some of this is waterfront & some deadbeat land.

RIP friend, you will be missed. Bought some REGN

Don't even get me started on what I've lost at the Vegas MGM Grand. The stock market has been much kinder to me haha. That said, I'll likely continue posting here until I see the pearly gates. Maybe @Blake Hampton & I will be the next Spek & John Hjorth a few decades down the lane.

I'm 21. Wanted to join the board when I was 16, my mom said no lol. I joined when I was 19. The $50 has compounded very well imo. The first stock I publicly vouched for and bought after I joined the forum was VRRM. It's up 80% now but was up over 130% at some point. I even met & am in touch with their management as their office is like 4 miles away from where I live, I'll probably never sell this stock for sentimental reasons & I do believe this is a 10 bagger. Life has been kind so far.

Bought some more LQDA, TMDX, MGNI, HIMS, IREN Starter in PDD