whatstheofficerproblem

Yes, how is COHR in a weaker position lol. They have more of a moat vs LITE in the sense they're vertically integrated.

'Liberals' in India are different, they want to ban abortions and legalize child marriage because their favorite minority wants it. The fascist Indian right is more 'liberal' in an ideological sense as in they want a uniform civil code for India.

Hahahaha. Unfortunately lots of folks in India still live in a delusion that they are 'Iranians' and came as part of Nader's army which isn't true. There are rallies going on in India right now where folks of a certain denomination are protesting Khamenei's death.

Agree, but broadly speaking, TTD's problem is that they became the very thing they sought to disrupt and their own customers hate them for it. The DSP side is very lucrative so AMZN & co will and already are eating their lunch. I still remember TTD being consider invincible at close to $150. Been shorting this turd since beginning of last year and my god is it a gift that keeps on giving. I'd say both the SSP & DSP platforms are not worth owning if your play is a long term thesis. So much can change so easily that it's just not worth the headache.

I am actually kinda glad that the US/Israel has Khamenei killed. So many 'elements' in India are exposing themselves and that is giving a lot of folks a much needed reality check. His predecessor Khomeini was part Indian, it's always the radicals from India who set out to teach their own colonizers the religion they imposed on them .

I see Citrini and I instantly ignore. This guy pitches 200 stocks and then takes victory laps when two of them work out. My experience with him has not been palatable fwiw and some of the takes in his report are absolutely braindead. Should also note that this report was written by AI.

CTV cannibalizing DV+, one of the key tenants of the bear case here is that DV+ will be rendered useless because AI is most of the traffic now. DV+ growth still +ve, though there is deceleration, in a couple of years CTV will take over DV+. SSP side of the equation is consolidating, there will be only 3 players left at best so matter of time this becomes an oligopoly. I don't plan on holding this forever as this trade for me mostly pertains to Brinkema's remedy. Now you might be wondering if DV+ is going to become deminimis then why kang onto the GOOGL suit, point is that it's not -ve growth yet and the absolute dollar value accretion from the suit which will be ex-cost for these is just too juicy. Stock will go past $20 before year end imo, you have tailwinds from CTV, which imo should get stronger as NFLX is no longer tied up in the WBD acquisition mess, and then the dying DV+ will get a lifeline and start flowing through thanks to GOOGL's dam breaking.

I mean, with a $15B sales opp, this is a much bigger company than what it is today. Don't think $1B is going to make a dent.

Terrific print on MGNI. Convert goes away 3/1 & $200M in buybacks with plan to go more aggressive with buybacks going forward. CTV is amazing, then you also have the Brinkema catalyst.. this selling off is retarded.

Sold GTLB and doubled down on LQDA after today's sell off.

The plan was to grow your own food so you could sustain yourself during the apocalypse that is Singularity. I don't believe in this, but it's a tail risk like I said.

Why would I buy software of all things with my bonus, it was LQDA.

I will explain why I started this thread in the Ideas forum. After seeing Seedance 2.0 a lot of doomer stuff has been circulating. I think AI is a bubble, no doubts about it. AI is only as good as the data it has, it is not thinking or reasoning, merely playing with patterns. But the tail risk is that it's very real and we're inching closer to AGI at which point 'Singularity' will become a reality. All the companies that are spending trillions in order to cut labor and that would require ROI to show up fast for it to be justified. So let's say if every company replaces the blue collar & white collar workforces right from Janitors to EVPs at that point unemployment would be so high that consumption will crash and no will have any money so whose dollars are these companies even competing for? I'd assume the powers that be will step in at that point buy income equality will be so high that people will revolt. The tape in stock market is horrendous right now. A very paranoid way of looking at stocks has become the norm. AI is going to replace something or the other so sell everything and rotate that money into Semis. Is there even a point in buying stocks if that's the case. Land. I'd like to see AI replace land & food. Which is why I'm mulling over using my bonus to buy some land. Doesn't matter if it's barren, remote etc. It's physical and it's tangible and hell the use cases are better than precious metals if anything. Thoughts? I think this is the way.

Sharesight didn't give me an option for cash! So I just chose Fairfax as a cash proxy, else that would've been cash. Yep, CVRX volatile, but I think print should be good. I like COHR better as like you said LITE is off to races and most of their capacity is taken by Sundar. COHR only recently became a pureplay will take time for folks to realize and get a sense of what's happening. I like the CEO & CFO. I find it ironic that the most 'volatile' name that I did a double take on when I added is the best performer from the above screenshot. There is almost a Zombie like drain from everything not AI which is flowing into semis.

Pretty much the same, COHR & MGNI were the only additions.

+1

COHR now under $200, might be adding tomorrow. Fwiw, these are very shit businesses much like Memory names, but optical is where the next shortage is at and I think Jimmy & his CFO have a good enough rep from LSSC days for me to buy it here.

I have liked AMD for a year, in Tegridy my cost basis higher because AMD was trading higher at fund's inception. Like I said in the letter, I will be happy to add. They have 6GW in instinct GPUs to deliver for OAI. That's $60-180B depending on where ASPs fall. Then you have the CPU shortage.

For those who need a Primer on SSPs:

@Rainier, they're different businesses. MGNI is SSP while TTD is DSP. Long MGNI & Short TTD has been one of the best pair trades of my life. That said TTD has bigger things to worry about. @valueseek, channel checks on my end suggest that very shortly the SSP space will consolidate into 1-3 players as most of the smaller players are going out of business while most of the market here is controlled by Google. I think the biggest catalyst is really the clarity we have on the Google suit. Remedies imply MGNI will capture some share from Google, how much exactly will depend on the remedy itself, but even a 1-2% market share catch here implies they will add 15-20% on top of their existing 11% organic growth plug. Plus the share gained there has a higher EBITDA passthrough rate 80-90% because there is not much TAC involved. This will happen in 2026. So in such a scenario, even trough multiples imply this is a 2x from here. The mindless sell off is very dumb. Then the ACR data is insane, they can see everything and massively increase value of CPMs across all publishers they work with. ACR data + best inventory + most demand aggregated is a super powerful position that is only going to get better as they continue to move towards curation and higher value services compared to traditional “dumb pipe” historically. So this works out even if Google remedy is not material, but it will be material and inflection will be aggressive imo. But thing is timing anything in the market is difficult. If you look at the worries about market implied share loss (inter-SSP take rate compression or DSP disintermediation) that is highly unlikely given their data + ad server advantages. CTV market is growing 13% next year and I think rev accel is likely given SPO and recent push on curated data. They consistently give publishers the best CPMs and commoditize DSP. Huge power shift that I don’t think is being fully appreciated. Two years of growth Accel at 50% inc EBITDA and it’s trading at mid single digits with a competitive position that is only getting better with scale. Like the moat here, if AMZN wants to vertically integrate into SSP sometime in the future they'll likely buy MGNI out, though that's not at all part of my thesis here.

Did some math on MGNI, extremely compelling. Doubled down on the stock, now a ~15% position.

The destination matters if you're investing in personal account. But unfortunately as a fund manager, my LPs will not like it if I don't post +ve years.

The price action on a lot of this is retarded and contradictory but it's the reality. Look at ORCL, market thinks OpenAI is a 0 & MSFT's investment thus far is 0, thinks GOOGL is the sole winner while WMT trades like it has an AWS competitor lined up. All the while selling software on headlines while buying semis, make it make sense.

I will be very upfront, the reason I think GTLB works here is because it's sort of AI infra. All other software names will not work until you get CapEx implosion. GS released a note about positioning, money is being taken out of software to pump it into Semis because no matter what development happens wrt AI it's good for Semis. You're in a race to the bottom owning software today atleast from a multiple PoV. I think there will be opportunity to buy software as a whole for much cheaper.

Sold some FFH to add MGNI today.