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Nice job! Different methodology for calculating intrinsic value than I use but they all end up in the same ball park.

Screw it, if not all - including USA - are not in on this : Ueractiv [July 13th 2026] : Ten European countries join forces to build anti-ballistic missile capability Subtitle : The initiative will bring together defence industries, research institutions and operational expertise. - - - o 0 o - - - USA has already lost it's control of / power over what's going to happen going forward.

Another Trump disaster - all is lost!

No, i just hedge from May to October. I use 5% notional value of my portfolio and buy december puts on the DAX 5% out of the money. I buy at the end of april and hold to the end of october or when the DAX is down 20%, at that point the puts will be a 5 to 6 bagger so it covers all losses on the portfolio, assuming it draws down like the DAX. That worked well in 2015 and 2018 where puts made me money. Since than i lost ~4-5% every year, in 2022 it was just 1%, because the market moved down a little. In essence as long as the market tanks 20% in the summer every 5th year, the strategy will break even and reduce market drawdowns to ~0. New strategy for winter: I will use the backtested strategy of the option guy from the excess return podcast. At 41 minute mark he talks about it: In essence when forward https://www.investing.com/indices/cboe-1month-implied-correlation is below 8 i will put 1% of my portfolio in 6 week ATM S&P500 puts. He mentioned that after 20 days the market often draws down ~5% after such a signal so that is my profit target for now. But this strategy is new to me, so i need to see how it goes. I am also not sure about the profit target here, need to do some digging. And because the situation is so insane right now, i also started doing it last thursday, but that is just to test some waters outside of winter.

I tend to agree. I have a full block set of Henckels knives, but 2 or 3 of them get most of the use and I could probably do without most of them. I tend to use the 8" & 10" chef's knifes most of the time. I do use the bread knife often though, and the slicing knife sometimes as well. Also the tomato and cheese knives occasionally. OK, I think I just convinced myself you're wrong while typing this. That's me though, my wife just uses the paring knife for everything.

He has no good choice because Iran was blockading the Oman side of the SOH by attacking ships going that route which circumvents their tolls. Anyways, this Iran war mess will last a while. It would not surprise me if the next administration will have to deal with this.

@Fly This is the real question and probably not. it depends on what i was saying about will there be a way for individual to say I want to hold my own assets and can i play on the broader blockchain. I do know these institutions are building blockchain rails internally. what i am uncertain of is if there is a application layer that is cross institutions yet. This can still be private and the validators / nodes can be held by the various institutions. But this is what would allow you to sell your shares to me if you hold your shares in IBKR and I hold mine in Schwab. it needs to leave one and go to the other and they can both hold their own ledgers internally but the application layer needs to be shared with validators on both sides. I'm betting this is happening. Also probably happening in health care with your health records. So yea, it comes down to will they let individual people play in the broader application layer saying I dont want to hold my shares in my wallet and not on schwab? Realistically there probably not a strong investment thesis other than in theory JPM, and other banks/brokers. should be able reducing opex and improving margin and customer experience as they implement the changes.

Looks like Trumpy has put the blockade back on...as you know the working class loves high oil prices so it's obvious that Trump has an incredibly deep love of the working class. For all the blue collar folks here, I hope you feel deep inside of you, how much Trump loves you

So if everything is held on internal private blockchains will there be any investable angle for us besides these JPMs of the world? As far as I know JPM basically did a cut/paste of the Ethereum blockchain and internalized it so it is closed to the public and they have all of the validators.

Was this just some roundabout way to steal the SOH...cuz starting a war, and then using the counterparty's response to then militarily seize the asset and then charge tolls is......a bit out there lmfao

Only the US (The Guardian Of The Homuz Strait) .... can be this warped https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-iran-attacks-kuwait/ “The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ’THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT’, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped.” The Iranians charge maybe USD 3/bbl (high) ... or 4% on a USD 75/bbl; the US charges 20%. The strait is now guaranteed to remain closed, and the Gulf incentivized to support Iranian tolling of the strait instead. SD

Thanks! The article was a pretty good summary actually though it missed that I recommended 2 books not one, and stressed that @Viking's compendium is a must read for anyone who wants to learn deeply about Fairfax.

With a new baby I don't have much time for paper books but I still try to listen to audiobooks when I drive or walk the dog. Since I was looking at exchanges lately (CME, CBOE, MIAX, OTCM) this new book was timely and I really enjoyed it. I finished it in 2 days. It's about the CME's purchase or CBOT and how ICE tried to step in and buy it out from under them. CME eventually bought them and NYMEX and became the dominant futures exchange in the US. It's well written and really informative. I have a background in this stuff, but it's pretty hard to explain some of the esoteric stuff to people not involved in it. This does a good job of that. It also goes over some stuff that I wasn't aware of like the origin of ICE. It started as a competitor to Enron by some enterprising traders and they kept evolving to go where the money is. (Now they own NYSE and some other stuff). The behind the scenes Game of Thrones manuevering is very interesting. There are FOUR books with the title "Zero Sum Game" on Amazon, this is the one I'm referring to: https://amzn.to/4biPBtK Highly recommend!

IMO - Its the tokenization of things is already happening but its happening quietly behind the scenes at the banks, security institutions, and other entities. They are slowly building out the tech and migrating legacy systems towards internal blockchain systems. Its reducing opex for these major institutions and enabling new classes of products and such that can be sold or serviced. They will develop front end solutions that will be more attractive to the random investor who doesnt understand crypto/blockchain. But it will all be built on those rails. eventually fractional realestate or art or other things will be enabled to be held in your fideltity account via these rails. Who knows it might be 10+ years out still. But i can almost guartee its coming. Eventually the stocks we see in our portfolio will be held digitally on a blockchain network with our fideltities, schawbs, and IBKR's and more. Turns out mainstream doesnt want the liberation of holding their own assets. I'll be curious though if at some point in the future the system does allow for the defi side of things where if you personally want to hold your own keys and take the risk of owning your own assets can you play in the broader ecosystem still and use your broker as the on and off ramp. We will see. But it is still happening IMO.

@frommi Could you give some example how you use puts to hedge? I am not so clear from your description. My understanding is - you are buying ATM puts covering 5% notional value of your portfolio, with 8 month to expiration, and rolling those after 6 months? And this is costing an average of ~2% of the portfolio value per year?

congratulations, must feel good to be picked up by bloomberg. If you post it, i will look and watch.

Yep I like it. Should have tried to buy all of POOL Corp too instead of selling Todd’s shares.

Pitched Fairfax at a Value Investing Conference in Italy last week. Got picked up by Bloomberg (attached). Will share slides and video if interesting. VIS Bridgewater Vet Pitches_BBG_Article_Fairfax.pdf

Friends advise, that this painting has quite the history ; Frans Hals, Two Laughing Boys With A Mug Of Beer. https://pricelessblog.squarespace.com/articles/frans-hals-painting-stolen-three-times Third time out, it was stolen, and fenced as an insurance policy against the owner eventually getting caught doing his crimes. The give the painting up for a reduced sentence, the more famous and valuable the painting, the better the bargaining chip. But with this particular painting .... should your name unfortunately ever get added to the previous list of owners .... you will also be famous forever. Immortality for cheap Apparently, most of what hangs on the gallery walls today are extremely good copies, with the originals stored in vaults. The other side of the street informed accordingly, and the message underlined by one or two copies of other paintings quietly commissioned directly from today's best forgers. You are welcome to continue nicking the inventory, and we'll put on a good show (for insurance purposes), but please limit the damage, and recognise that you only have the copy . Same as the original painters, there are forgers equally as good as the masters, and they are all known. SD

Apple gets to keep making Free Cash Flow while the rest burn it on capex

Thats the thing, i do this since 10 years and my drag was -2% with a 5% put position. Because there is residual value when you buy long dated puts (in my case i just use 6 of an 8 months put option and in 2015 and 2018 these puts printed some money). You can't assume that a put will never make money, thats not a fair comparison (in my case a 20% drawdown this year would lift the drag into positive territory)

Its a good business if its the best they can do with the borrowed funds.

GFR announces a big deal including a rights issue. If it gets done at C$6.74, then Fairfax likely has to write a cheque for ~$230m depending on oversubscribtion. https://www.greenfireres.com/news-releases/acquisition-of-connacher/

The TRS counterparty is a bank. Does that help? The banks are just renting out their balance sheet. They borrow at CORRA which is around 2.3% and lend secured to FFH at 3%. Seems like good business.

This should really be an apples-to-apples comparison: Reduce the put allocation to 50%; 15%x50% = 7.5%-2% put drag = 5.5% + same downside protection as sale and repurchase. That delta of 3.5% (9.0-5.5%) is 60%+ better, much easier to do, but not nearly as 'sexy' or conversational. There's a reason why 'sale and repurchase' is so often maligned . More opportunities! SD