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These things are just a swap with no expiry date, and a more frequent settlement schedule. But the real market isn't predictions, it's the institutional ALM market. Create a 'unit' with a nominal face value of 1,000 and a nominal term of 1,000+ (proxy for infinity) .... and you have a zero coupon bond with a duration of 1,000+ . Duration x change in yield between MTM intervals = MTM settlement. A duration of 1,000+ ..... multiple times higher than today's typical leverage. Viscous little bastards ..... SD

This is a great open-minded post. Open mindedness is incredibly rare when it comes to Trump.

There is also one area where many European countries have the US beat and that is something else not measured in $ and €'s.....and thats trust....many European countries when measured still have all the hallmarks of high trust societies - citizens trust in the institutions and trust in fellow citizens...if you've never experienced this you probably don't realize what a quality of life enhancer it is......the US in its period of economic outperformance over Europe has seen both those metrics degrade meaningful such that many surveys place it as now a medium to medium-to-low trust society.

Name 2 things you disagree with Trump on. You wouldnt even admit to disagreeing with him on an issue where he came out in opposition to your stated support. Do you support his cancelation of caps on overdraft fees?

What I don't understand with Amorepacific is how do you start with gross margins of 70% and end up with EBIT margins of 7%? Where did that money go?

@RichardGibbons, good point. A lot of the material is also fluid. I have already changed my ratings for Fairfax from the first article in the series above. I am not able to edit the longer articles on the site (I am locked out from editing) - so they stay frozen. But I do keep revising the articles in my book - so it captures all edits. I find publishing the individual articles provides a few benefits: Deadline: often I give myself a deadline with an article (or series). Publish whatever it is at the time. Heightened focus: no one wants to be "wrong" with what they publish. After I publish sometimes my brain works completely differently. It is weird. When re-reading an article on the board I often pick up a bunch of stuff I missed when doing edits pre-publication. My view is the book will never be "completed." (And one day I will move on to another hobby.) Thanks to you and @Maverick47 for the feedback. It is appreciated.

And here is QXO, which also had a strong close today

While we wait for Intel to go straight up (so far so good), we have two mini-head and shoulders bottoms to observe! One of them in our very own Fairfax Financial, which - as Spek had duly noted - had traced out a "not gonna happen, no way no how" giant head and shoulders top only to negate it and put in a bottom. Love it when that happens. Here's the FRFHF mini-head-and-shoulders bottom and she's a cutie

That is a shocking graphic.

+1 I mean Presidential US elections are purely binary and for most folks, the best of two choices they would not otherwise make. The fact that we support Trump does not mean we agree with, or like everything he does or says. Yet the opposition's most vocal point is "get Trump". Any wonder why socialists are taking over the Democratic party?

New starter positions in CME, MKTX and TW

Thanks @petec. Perhaps I’m a bit hypersensitive due to past experiences. Without knowing the finer details, a 50% discount to book value doesn't seem all that far-fetched given the performance over the last decade. It’s all the better, that you’re shedding some light on this. A peer comparison would indeed be a major undertaking. I took a look at South Africa a few years back, and Bidvest stood out to me as a company that "at least knows a bit about what it's doing", of course they are also at the mercy of major (macroeconomic) trends. Unfortunately I ended up trusting Fairfax’s expertise more than my own gut feeling in the March 2020 drawdown.

Sending you encouragement, @Sweet! You’ve got this, and getting professional assessments is a wonderful, proactive step. Every child truly blooms on their own timeline. My son will be 5 soon, and he didn't start speaking until he was 4, with his first full sentence coming around 4.5. Interestingly, his 2-year-old little sister actually beat him to her first sentence! On top of that, he is one of those amazing kids who can focus on Legos or Magna-Tiles for hours. Because of that unique mix, we naturally wondered about autism. We reached out to several specialists, and the wonderful news was that he was simply a late bloomer with a significant speech delay. It took a little patience to find the right fit, but after two years of speech therapy with a therapist he absolutely bonded with, he is thriving and catching up so fast! While he’s still working hard to bridge the gap with his Pre-K peers, his vocabulary is absolutely mushrooming right now. Hang in there! Trust your instincts, lean on the specialists, and celebrate every little victory along the way. You’re doing an amazing job!

Yeah, I think this is one of the key things I've got from reading this particular political board. Like, so many people online and offline seem to say that anyone who would support Trump is idiotic, ill-educated, and insane. You often hear the criticism that his supporters are too stupid to even realize that he's not on their side, but just working for himself. It never seems to occur to them that Trump can be a corrupt, self-dealing narcissist, and people might rationally conclude that he's better than the alternative. (That said, I think he's probably still worse than the alternative because of the second order effects--destroying democratic norms and causing to a socialist kickback that could cause immense harm. But the point is that if, without ad hominem attacks, you can't explain why a reasonable person would vote for Trump, then that's your failing, not theirs.)

Hi! At a very basic level yes the $8m and $104m numbers are right. However the $8m number is based on only one quarter, so it may be wrong. Also, it includes nothing for carry, which could be quite valuable. I would not compare the valuation of Helios with the other assets for three reasons. Helios can turn on a dime. One big fund, or one successful investment, could flip it to profitability. It is a very different animal to say Trone, a profitable medical devices distributor carried at 9.4x ebitda. For the majority of the other businesses, we have third party investor validation of the valuations. HFP have no real incentive to value Helios correctly. It is an intangible and it makes no practical difference whether it is carried at $0 or $50m or $100m. So long as they can defend the assumptions in the DCF, they probably don't spend all that much time on it. The other valuations, however, have to be defended and justified to LPs in a very different way. Finally, the share price is 50% of book value even if you exclude Helios completely. So it really is a free option. Peer comparison is a lovely idea but - done right - very time consuming! Pete

I'd suggest all at once, for your sake and for the overall quality. My reasoning is, when writing longer works over the course of many days, you might be changing something later in the book, and it'll trigger some thought at applies earlier. Like, you could've phrased something different, or have another example you're trying to illustrate, or there's a really elegant way to express something, or you could have tied the chapters together better if you'd done something slightly different earlier. If you serialize it, these cases will likely frustrate you beyond all reason. It's very annoying when you think of something really elegant, but can't include it because the moment is past. So, while serializing is better for the short term readers, I think all at once is better for the author and also the quality of the final work. For my style of writing novels, it makes a huge difference, because I'm all about making my characters suffer. And there's many cases where I'm thinking, "X happening will make them miserable", and then realize, "but if ten chapters earlier, I show that they went through something that made them particularly emotionally vulnerable to X, then it'll be excruciating."

Some more BTC

By the way, have you already checked him for vision or hearing issues. It might have nothing to do with autism or any sort learning disability. I needed glasses when I was a toddler...and still wear them 53 years later! Not using words may also be a sign of not being able to properly hear the words, so the natural default comfort level is to guide you by the hand to what he wants to communicate or point at. Also, whatever the issue might be...if there even is one...don't stress or panic. Just deal with it like any thing else...night time feedings, potty training, the flu, etc. It's just another problem/issue a parent has to deal with and you've handled everything else already! Cheers!

Adding a lot to the financial exchanges. Back in on Netflix.

I wouldn't say they're anymore dangerous than futures which are also available to retail. But is dependant on how much leverage the provider allows. Coinbase gives me perpetual swaps on Sunil leverage ratio terms to normal CME futures. But there are other crypto exchanges that have historically offered 100:1 leverage which is dangerous regardless of what you're trading.

I have been adding a lot to the US based names plus BOLSY over the past week or so. Even dipped my toes into NDAQ, TW, and TMXXF for the first time.

I also think they are swaps. They walk like swaps and quack like swaps. I haven't traded them but have looked at them and I think they are incredibly dangerous for retail investor. If you own calls and the underlying drops like a rock, you lose the value of the call. If you own one of these perps, you might find yourself completely wiped out. Never mind the funding rate, which can eat away at the gains.

I think what most people are missing with the Europe vs America wealth debate is that Europe doesn't get to print infinite amounts of paper money out of thin air to buy global goods/assets/products with. At least not anywhere to the extent the US gets to. Every second the USD remains the reserve currency is a second that were trading something that is largely worthless and getting something of real value. Every fiat currency does this, but being the global reserve means we get to abuse the shit out of it. That small benefit across every int'l transaction every day for decades adds up.

EVO, CPRT, VEEV. Cheap valuation relative to growth/history and all have big buybacks and great balance sheets.

CME and TMXXF Thanks Lance