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I don’t know if Visser has a model Portfolio but his long chip/ memory short software trade gets totally obliterated. I guess he is in the finfluencer and newsletter business now, so he will be OK.

Trump., Mao and Hitler, Franco were all autocrats, so they have methods in common and goals that are different. All autocrats have in common that they believe they historic figures and above their peers and just can make up the rules rather then play by them. How far they can push it depends on how the people and institutions respond because they have by their nature very little restraint themselves.

She not a neutral commentator, she is interjecting her opinion into a question. I think Elon is a douche, but nothing hypocritical about calling how he sees it. Europe has a problem, large sections of its population, of which I include myself, want a stop to immigration right now.

Check the GDP growth tables you can find at FRED. There were only 2 years of negative GDP ((-0.5/0.2% in 1974 and 1975) . The other years we had GDP growth of 4-5%. The GDP growth in the 70’s was better then what we have now. The 70’s were bad for equities but not so much for workers or even the general economy and that despite the number the oil price shock did in 1974 on the economy. I feel that the 70’s have an unwarranted bad reputation nowadays.

The older I get the more I am convinced that Irony is a constant in the universe.

Equity shrug off the higher interest rates because earnings grow for the SPY is very high. I think it’s north of 20%. The earnings growth is quite concentrated in semis etc but is also broadening. So the fundamentals are negating the higher interest rates for now.

You might also want to look at the current trend in who owns US treasuries, along with the current level of US reserves. It would seem that QE is involuntarily back in a big way, as foreign buyers are walking away from new issues. It's just not clear as to whether existing debt is also not being rolled in full, or if this is just brand new debt that couldn't find a buyer outside of the Fed Reserve. Increasing fragility ...... looking for an opportunity. SD

Looks like there is double counting when you try to include the excess of FV over CV as equivalent to increase in economic earnings because the part of Associate profit is already included in the reported accounting earnings. Please correct if wrong because you include Either the part of earnings Or the increase in market value Not both. For portfolio/m2m holdings we include their mark to market increase instead of their proportional part of earnings while for Associate holdings we do opposite. Take an example of a simple company worth 100 that earns 10 in a year. Next year, the company earns 30. As a result the market value of doubles to 200. We still count only the 30 as the earnings instead is counting +100 as additional economic gain. We understand this for this example of an individual company. An associate company is also like the part of company itself in this way. More like consolidated than mark to market. Professional accountants may comment if this is right or wrong way of thinking that we include (part of) earnings and ignore market value for the following: 1. the company itself (100%) 2. consolidated subsidiaries (>50%) 3. associates (20 to 50%) While we include only the increase (or decrease) in market value of those holdings of which less than 20% is owned and ignore their earnings. The point is to include one or the other.

In that respect, Elon Musk is just another snow flake, for sure, taking his own record of insults etc. into consideration.

Pot calling the kettle black? History, not your opining here on COBF tells us what led the rise of Germany and Hitler. There is no basis of comparison.

Micron went off 20X from around $63 in April 2025 to $1255 in June 2026 - a legendary 14 month run, not for some micro cap but for a Trillion $ company. Lots of funboys have been riding this high fiving each other, counting da $$$ and having a good ole time but when such rapid rise like this turns, it can go the other way pretty hard If I can cover my short at $600, why it'd be like early Christmas! haha

You mean more insurance acquisitions? I don’t see them messing with the ratio and doing non insurance acquisitions at the holdco.

Still plenty of air underneath these charts. They could drop an other 30-40% without any resistance. Hynix at ~100k may have some support. It doesn’t mean the stocks get there, but if you trade based on charts and momentum like most traders do, they are currently flashing red.

I agree, between the low stock price for as long as it lasts, the outstanding minority share of the the insurance subs. and the TRS position. We are probably easily looking at another $6-7B of capital that could be absorbed in the next couple of years. All of which will increase capital allocated per share quite nicely. When your own shares are amongst the cheapest in the P&C industry measured by nearly whatever metric you look at, why bother looking outside? We should be grateful Prem is a genuine investment return based capital allocator than an empire builder. I'm grateful we went 27.9M to likely now under 20M at the prices at which we did. The market likely won't give them as much credit as they should for these buybacks just as they did not for the approx $5.1B over the last 5yrs. Unless something changes dramatically in the next 2-3 yrs, much of the excess capital seems destined to go to buybacks with modest float growth. At some point, this opportunity will end and when it does they will have to look more for other outside investments acquisitions. I for one like that they have this hurdle for comparison and hope it lasts longer.

Man, this is some chart: If anyone asks “where were the signs?” Here is one of many ads I’ve been getting on Reddit lately:

Hynix and Micron are tied to the same mast though and Hynix is down more then 10% in Korea tonight. I agree Micron has been relatively stronger but I think they can’t escape this downtrend either.

Schopenhauers "Aphorisms" are truly good. I read them 2-3 times myself and they have a strong connection to Stoicism which is highly en vogue right now (Marc Aurel, Epictetus and Seneca). With these two books you are referring to how to conduct a good life. There are of course many other fields within philosophy but since this is what many people are concerned with when turning to philosophy one may also find interesting: - Aristotles` "Nicomachean Ethics" (though far more "dry" and academic) - Michele de Montaigne`s "Essais" (very good, also has a strong relation to stoicism) - Bertrand Russells` "The Conquest of Happiness" I have many more but they are most prominent when it comes to how to conduct a good life.

What is your philosophy book you like best? I like "Poor Richard´s Almanack" from Benjamin Franklin and "The Wisdom of Life" from Arthur Schopenhauer. They are very much "Munger-style" written. Short, sharp and focused to the point.

His performance likely was poor because he had to close his hedge fund, due to hedging (not too different to Fairfax's lost decade). I am not claiming he is a good investor. You can be a good journalist but a poor investor for example.

Many things are priced today in a fashion that is very silly as to reality. During a time of historic deficits, record low credit spreads, and booming asset values, everyone of course now believes that they're the financial genius of all geniuses simply because prices for basically everything have reached levels now that would make God blush. No more do fundamentals matter. Credit has become so ready and so cheap, money comes to almost everyone requiring little effort, our country has in-effect discovered how to break the laws of financial gravity. "But growth, growth!" they say. "We will grow our way out of this hole! These companies will simply grow earnings into these mighty valuations lying before us!" So much money today, yet so little in the places where it's expected.

You have a perpetual desire to always be right and ignore what anyone has to say to simply support your argument. Never did I say Trump was Hitler or like Hitler. I said his actions on the global stage could lead to another Hitler! This is why I ignored you for a period of time, and I was pleasantly happy to watch you argue with others. I'll go back to simply ignoring you and any responses you feel you have to offer to me...life's too short to waste on assholes!

I think the TRS helps them keep the buyback going even if the multiple goes above 1.5x or whatever they decide is too high. It’s another 9% of shares. That’s another 2 years of buybacks if the multiple goes up without a hard market.

I'm having a Weller 12 yr now. Really good IMO. Red wine: I just had Revana Beckstoffer 2021 and a 2022 Napa Valley Cab. Can buy at Alexana Winery's web page. It's fantastic, but expensive.

Yes thanks for clarifying. I missed that you were also calculating the puts and takes, perhaps as I saw the FV over CV go up despite a large sell down in Poseidon. It's definitely important to look at economic earnings with Fairfax particularly because of their 360 style of investing as well as patient capital hallmark. The irony is despite what you try to do, you're probably still going to undercount it. On the other hand, even though they've had a hot steak of late, there are probably going to have some failed investments in the future which may or may not be immediately marked down (but thankfully we usually get a pretty frank update on them in the annual letter). A minor correction, technically BIAL is a Fairfax India investment. On the fixed income to equity size aspect. I think as long as the share price keeps giving them this opportunity, they will keep chewing up excess cash to buyback and keeping the investment leverage just as it stands unless an extraordinary opportunity come up. Otherwise, if their equity keeps growing at 15-20% PA. Their float could never keep up, barring a huge insurance acquisition, and I think they've kind of communicated they don't plan to do that. I expect them to be opportunistic and patient growing their insurance underwriting. Flat to 3% in soft markets and 8-10% in hard markets averaging out maybe 5% over a cycle. So when you look at 5% v 15% over the longer term, the investment leverage drops quite quickly. I think management is keenly aware of this and manage their capital allocation with this in mind.