All Activity

You mean more insurance acquisitions? I don’t see them messing with the ratio and doing non insurance acquisitions at the holdco.

Still plenty of air underneath these charts. They could drop an other 30-40% without any resistance. Hynix at ~100k may have some support. It doesn’t mean the stocks get there, but if you trade based on charts and momentum like most traders do, they are currently flashing red.

I agree, between the low stock price for as long as it lasts, the outstanding minority share of the the insurance subs. and the TRS position. We are probably easily looking at another $6-7B of capital that could be absorbed in the next couple of years. All of which will increase capital allocated per share quite nicely. When your own shares are amongst the cheapest in the P&C industry measured by nearly whatever metric you look at, why bother looking outside? We should be grateful Prem is a genuine investment return based capital allocator than an empire builder. I'm grateful we went 27.9M to likely now under 20M at the prices at which we did. The market likely won't give them as much credit as they should for these buybacks just as they did not for the approx $5.1B over the last 5yrs. Unless something changes dramatically in the next 2-3 yrs, much of the excess capital seems destined to go to buybacks with modest float growth. At some point, this opportunity will end and when it does they will have to look more for other outside investments acquisitions. I for one like that they have this hurdle for comparison and hope it lasts longer.

Man, this is some chart: If anyone asks “where were the signs?” Here is one of many ads I’ve been getting on Reddit lately:

Hynix and Micron are tied to the same mast though and Hynix is down more then 10% in Korea tonight. I agree Micron has been relatively stronger but I think they can’t escape this downtrend either.

Schopenhauers "Aphorisms" are truly good. I read them 2-3 times myself and they have a strong connection to Stoicism which is highly en vogue right now (Marc Aurel, Epictetus and Seneca). With these two books you are referring to how to conduct a good life. There are of course many other fields within philosophy but since this is what many people are concerned with when turning to philosophy one may also find interesting: - Aristotles` "Nicomachean Ethics" (though far more "dry" and academic) - Michele de Montaigne`s "Essais" (very good, also has a strong relation to stoicism) - Bertrand Russells` "The Conquest of Happiness" I have many more but they are most prominent when it comes to how to conduct a good life.

What is your philosophy book you like best? I like "Poor Richard´s Almanack" from Benjamin Franklin and "The Wisdom of Life" from Arthur Schopenhauer. They are very much "Munger-style" written. Short, sharp and focused to the point.

His performance likely was poor because he had to close his hedge fund, due to hedging (not too different to Fairfax's lost decade). I am not claiming he is a good investor. You can be a good journalist but a poor investor for example.

Many things are priced today in a fashion that is very silly as to reality. During a time of historic deficits, record low credit spreads, and booming asset values, everyone of course now believes that they're the financial genius of all geniuses simply because prices for basically everything have reached levels now that would make God blush. No more do fundamentals matter. Credit has become so ready and so cheap, money comes to almost everyone requiring little effort, our country has in-effect discovered how to break the laws of financial gravity. "But growth, growth!" they say. "We will grow our way out of this hole! These companies will simply grow earnings into these mighty valuations lying before us!" So much money today, yet so little in the places where it's expected.

You have a perpetual desire to always be right and ignore what anyone has to say to simply support your argument. Never did I say Trump was Hitler or like Hitler. I said his actions on the global stage could lead to another Hitler! This is why I ignored you for a period of time, and I was pleasantly happy to watch you argue with others. I'll go back to simply ignoring you and any responses you feel you have to offer to me...life's too short to waste on assholes!

I think the TRS helps them keep the buyback going even if the multiple goes above 1.5x or whatever they decide is too high. It’s another 9% of shares. That’s another 2 years of buybacks if the multiple goes up without a hard market.

I'm having a Weller 12 yr now. Really good IMO. Red wine: I just had Revana Beckstoffer 2021 and a 2022 Napa Valley Cab. Can buy at Alexana Winery's web page. It's fantastic, but expensive.

Yes thanks for clarifying. I missed that you were also calculating the puts and takes, perhaps as I saw the FV over CV go up despite a large sell down in Poseidon. It's definitely important to look at economic earnings with Fairfax particularly because of their 360 style of investing as well as patient capital hallmark. The irony is despite what you try to do, you're probably still going to undercount it. On the other hand, even though they've had a hot steak of late, there are probably going to have some failed investments in the future which may or may not be immediately marked down (but thankfully we usually get a pretty frank update on them in the annual letter). A minor correction, technically BIAL is a Fairfax India investment. On the fixed income to equity size aspect. I think as long as the share price keeps giving them this opportunity, they will keep chewing up excess cash to buyback and keeping the investment leverage just as it stands unless an extraordinary opportunity come up. Otherwise, if their equity keeps growing at 15-20% PA. Their float could never keep up, barring a huge insurance acquisition, and I think they've kind of communicated they don't plan to do that. I expect them to be opportunistic and patient growing their insurance underwriting. Flat to 3% in soft markets and 8-10% in hard markets averaging out maybe 5% over a cycle. So when you look at 5% v 15% over the longer term, the investment leverage drops quite quickly. I think management is keenly aware of this and manage their capital allocation with this in mind.

Well I was 15 took what I could get

Agreed 100% - but that doesn't lend the speaker any credibility. Like Musk here: he betrays himself when he refuses to acknowledge criticism of the politicians he backs in Europe ("what you're saying is total fiction"). It shows he is not a serious, credible person with reasonable ideas. That doesn't make him useless, he just has to be framed properly as a sounding board or reflection, rather than a political leader. Kind of like the crazy guy on the corner with big signs that the holocaust never happened.

C'mon man--Guinness bottles and not cans? To be fair, I'm over the fancy craft beers/IPAs/rich stouts and love me some easy drinking pilsners or hefeweizens these days. They go better with meals too. I've been surprised at how simple and great Miller High Life or Coors Banquets can be--especially on a summer day

“how much earnings did Fairfax get in 2026?” Are you calculating economic or accounting earnings? I am trying to calculate all sources of economic earnings. And an economic return. My estimate is conservative because it does not capture all the different ways that economic is being created - like the change in value of non-insurance non-market traded consolidated holdings (like Sleep Country, BIAL etc). Or the value creation that is happening at insurance holdings like Ki.

This does make sense but I think the adjustment for retained earnings only accounts for part of the difference. Staying with your Eurobank example, say that Fairfax's share of Eurobank was carried at $2b last year, with a market value of $3b based on 2025 earnings of $300m, for a P/E of 10, so FV-CV was $1b. Now earnings go from $300m to $400m in 2026, so if there is no dividend. Based on the accounting rules you summarized above, Fairfax's CV would go to $2.4. If P/E stays at 10, market value would go to $4b, so FV-CV= $1.6b, an increase of $600m. So the question is, from Eurobank, how much earnings did Fairfax get in 2026? I would say it is just the $400m (item 3 in your list). But are you saying you want to ALSO give them another $600m, from item 6 (increase in FV-CV)?

Guiness is not something that you want to take with you on a hike or camping. Every decent lager, IPA or pilsner works much better.

My gut feeling says that none of this ever happened and it's all engagement bait ... March - employee vibe coded a bunch of software tools that are far better Now - they switched back Early indicator that sentiment is beginning to shfit?

I don't think there is double counting in 3 and 6. Bucket 3 is share of profit of associates. This amount is netted out of Bucket 6, change in excess of FV over CV. And that is because CV is adjusted for each holding each quarter (share of profit is added and any dividends received are subtracted). Let's make up numbers of Eurobank. Let's pretend Fairfax reports Eurobank share of profit of associates of $100 million for Q2. Let's pretend there was no dividend paid by Eurobank to Fairfax. If Fairfax's CV for Eurobank at the of Q1 was $2.6B, it will be ~$2.7B at the end of Q2. If Eurobank's share price was flat for the quarter, excess of FV over CV would decrease by $100 million (FV would be flat but CV would increase). If Eurobank's share price increased materially in the quarter, excess of FV over CV would increase by a lot (FV would increase much more than the increase in CV). Which is what actually happened in Q2. Bottom line, excess of FV over CV will include two adjustments every quarter: share price and share of profit of associates. So I don't think there will be no double counting. In my analysis I use change in excess of FV over CV. I don't think there is any double counting. Make sense?

I don't think I am double counting. What I am capturing for each year is: Actual realized investment gains. Actual change in excess of FV over CV for associate and non-insurance market traded consolidated companies. Take the recent Poseidon sale. In Q1, prior to the sale closing, the $837 million gain was sitting in excess of FV over CV. In Q2, when the sale closed, the $837 million will flip into realized investment gains (and gets subtracted from excess of FV over CV). There will be a put and a take. But no double counting. The interesting thing is even with the $837 million 'hit' to excess of FV over CV in Q2, my math says it will still increase from $3.9 billion to about $4.1 billion, or +$200 million. Why? The market value of Eurobank was way up (+$900 million). Yes, Eurobank's CV will increase by share of profit of associates. But Eurobank also paid Fairfax a big dividend - this will reduce CV. I think the Eurobank stuff is reported with a one quarter lag. ----------- Economic versus accounting earnings My goal is to measure Fairfax's actual economic earnings. Not to measure accounting earnings (which materially understates a bunch of things). Now, the big swing will be when Fairfax sells Eurobank. That will result in a massive increase in realized gains and a massive hit to excess of FV over CV. That will spike accounting earnings. But it won't spike economic earnings nearly as much (it will depend on the sale price). Because Eurobank's share price (market value) increased in prior years. I am trying to capture what is actually happening at Fairfax. Not what the accounting earnings are. Make sense?

1/3 of HST and ABNB

On Tilson: performance over time is what matters. People's character changes over the years, or maybe he was having a particularly bad or good day...all that stuff is subjective. What's his long term performance record?