What are you buying today?

[DooDiligence]

Edited August 28 by DooDiligence

[mananainvesting]

On 8/13/2024 at 2:58 AM, winjitsu said:

Bought heavily into $PCF today post rights-offering.

"The Fund intends to hold a special meeting of shareholders of record as of Friday, August 23, 2024, to consider proposals to approve these changes. Shortly after the special meeting, the Board intends to authorize a tender offer by the Fund to purchase at least (a) 90% of the number of shares issued in the rights offering if the proposals are adopted, or (b) 60% of the number of shares issued in the rights offering if the proposals are not adopted, at a price of at least 98% of NAV."

 

It's very likely the proposals will be adopted. NAV is around $7.17. Price is around $6.59. 

 

Do you know when the special meeting is? I dont see the date in edgar yet. Thanks

[Sweet]

11 hours ago, Saluki said:

 

I think it's oversold, but I'm not sure of the market cap in a few years because of the uncertainty about the fears of a breakup.  IF the judge says that GOOG can no longer pay Apple to be the default browser on iPhones.  It's possible that most people would still use Google, and that $20bln a year that GOOG would save, at a 20x P/E is another $400Bln market cap.  However, if Apple wants to capture some of that, maybe they will come out with their own (crappier) search and make it the default on iPhones.  Then how much of that $20bln stays with GOOG, who knows? 

 

Google cloud is 3rd behind AWS and MSFT, but it's still growing at +20% a year.  How much is a fast growing sticky SaaS business worth in 5 years?  I don't know, but it's probably a lot. 

 

It wasn't until recently that I started to see a lot of ads in Waze.  That brings in ~$500m a year and the moat gets bigger every year as more people use it.  What's that worth in 5 years? 

 

The Other Bets segment currently brings about $400mm a year if i remember correctly.  There are a lot of other bets in there and one of them is Waymo.  People love fawning on Elon Musk, but the last time I looked at the two most important metrics, Waymo is way ahead.  Those are: total miles driven, and miles driven before human intervention needed. I don't know how much it's worth, but in 5 years I bet it will be a lot more. 

 

The prior big selloff was when ChatGPT came out and people thought it would kill Google search.  It hasn't.  And Google has a very impressive AI of it's own.  It's still early for AI, so I don't know what the final contribution will be, but among the most advanced in this space are Google and Meta, along with MSFT. 

 

And generative AI and Machine Learning work better with more data.  Google has the search by a mile and they also have YouTube for video and sound.  That's gotta be worth something to the AI moat. 

 

If the court doesn't split them up, but instead makes them make some data about search and advertising auctions available to it's competitors for a fee, maybe that hurts them, but maybe it brings in more revenue.  

 

Still in the early innings.  I thought about trimming when it got to be my largest position and didn't.  Now that it's come down, I think maybe I can overweight it, and if it grows, then keep trimming whenever it grows beyond a certain percent (15%? 20%?) that I am comfortable holding for a long time.  

Thanks for that.  I agree it’s a great company with a lot of very valuable sectors, some growing at a decent rate.

 

Top line growth is about 10% for the company, roughly half of what it was 10ish years ago.  At $2 trillion, and a current yield of 24x earnings, it has some growth priced in.

 

Let’s be conservative and say fair value for Google is x12 earnings or something like that.  Based on that assumption the market is pricing a doubling of revenue / earnings from here.  I can see that happening over a 7-10 year period but looking further out I struggle to know how much Google can continue to grow.

Edited August 29 by Sweet

[shhughes1116]

16 hours ago, Saluki said:

 

If the court doesn't split them up, but instead makes them make some data about search and advertising auctions available to it's competitors for a fee, maybe that hurts them, but maybe it brings in more revenue.  

 

Are you referring to the antitrust case around ad tech?  Or around the search monopoly?  
 

Regarding the search monopoly and payments between Google and Apple, and between Google and Samsung, I dont envision the court compelling Google to share search data with competitors.  And I don’t envision DOJ requesting this as a remedy.  This would be a pretty bad look for any court and for any administration to force one tech giant to share consumer data via search with other tech giants.  The salient issue is Google paying to exclude competitors.  This is reflected in the ruling.  I think an injunction against this practice will be the remedy, and we will end up with some sort of “search provider choice screen”.  

[valueventures]

Added to GLASF on the dip

[winjitsu]

14 hours ago, mananainvesting said:

Do you know when the special meeting is? I dont see the date in edgar yet. Thanks

They have not made an announcement and I haven't received a proxy statement from my broker yet

[Luke]

Bought a lot of Hang Lung Group

[coffeecaninvestor]

JNJ

[CorpRaider]

DEC

[mistakenpoint]

Bought some Berkshire puts in the morning.

[Whensthepaintdry?]

Started buying FRPH. Thank you to people on here for putting it on my radar. I’ve been listening to old earnings calls the last few weeks. They really seem like a great management team.  

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, mistakenpoint said:

Bought some Berkshire puts in the morning.

Whats the thinking with puts on Berkshire?

[mistakenpoint]

24 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Whats the thinking with puts on Berkshire?

It's just a short-term swing trade. With the RSI over 80 and a P/B ratio in the 1.7 range, the recent outperformance is statistically rare

[mananainvesting]

@Whensthepaintdry? Would appreciate a quick elevator pitch on your buy of $FRPH. Any good resources you suggest to go over ? Thanks

[thowed]

@mananainvesting There's a massive thread here!

[Whensthepaintdry?]

Yeah there is! I would say that thread and then listening to the management team and reading their annuals. The management team is very aligned and allocates capital with opportunity cost in mind. It was refreshing to listen to them. Other than that growing revenue above 15 percent a year, trading less than 15 2023 net operating numbers. Maybe even less than 10 now. Lots of assets that are worth more than accounted for.  Trying to close the nav, but not in a rash way. Honestly though none of the above would make me want to buy it though if it wasn’t for how the management team sounds. 

[abcd]

On 9/3/2024 at 7:15 PM, mistakenpoint said:

It's just a short-term swing trade. With the RSI over 80 and a P/B ratio in the 1.7 range, the recent outperformance is statistically rare

I know no one here believes in timing the market, but your move on this is impeccable.

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter in MBLY and CELH. Added a bit to ATKR.

 

For MBLY Intel selling should be good news longer term.

[CorpRaider]

On 9/4/2024 at 7:59 AM, Whensthepaintdry? said:

Yeah there is! I would say that thread and then listening to the management team and reading their annuals. The management team is very aligned and allocates capital with opportunity cost in mind. It was refreshing to listen to them. Other than that growing revenue above 15 percent a year, trading less than 15 2023 net operating numbers. Maybe even less than 10 now. Lots of assets that are worth more than accounted for.  Trying to close the nav, but not in a rash way. Honestly though none of the above would make me want to buy it though if it wasn’t for how the management team sounds. 

The stache is in charge now.  Just saying.

Edited September 5 by CorpRaider

[Whensthepaintdry?]

36 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

The stache is in charge now.  Just saying.

Ha! No one with a stache ever led anyone astray. 

[gfp]

On 8/20/2024 at 2:46 PM, gfp said:

I'm going to wait a day or two but I'm hoping to get short the TLT around $100/share.  Probably through October options.  We might even get a quick breakout above 101 but we are coming into some very persistent seasonal trends where no matter what the fundamentals indicate - interest rates have been rising end of august through september pretty regularly.  It will come as a nice surprise with all eyes on the rate cutting cycle.

 

Probably will find some cheap out of the money puts to express it but I may figure out a different plan.  Micro treasury yield futures are pretty user friendly.  Now let's just get her up above 100!

 

I finally got my 100+ TLT price so I am starting to put this short on.  Couldn't look worse for my trade from a "technical analysis" point of view but let's give it a whirl.  Short TLT premarket at 100.20 / share and will look at the options when they are trading.

 

Would not be surprised to see a quick pop to 101.  

[hardcorevalue]

so you are playing this for 80 bps?

 

34 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

I finally got my 100+ TLT price so I am starting to put this short on.  Couldn't look worse for my trade from a "technical analysis" point of view but let's give it a whirl.  Short TLT premarket at 100.20 / share and will look at the options when they are trading.

 

Would not be surprised to see a quick pop to 101.  

 

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

so you are playing this for 80 bps?

 

 

 

No I am betting on higher interest rates - this is just me putting on the position.  Just a seasonal "farmer's almanac" type speculation that will naturally hedge some other positions I have

 

( I originally posted in the "buying" thread because I would prefer to express this trade with options but they aren't open for trading yet so I started with the TLT )

Edited September 6 by gfp

[WayWardCloud]

I bought Airbnb on Friday for 2.2% of the portfolio. I've been wanting to own this for over a decade but it stayed private forever and then the IPO was way too expensive. Now seems like a good opportunity to own a wonderful business at a reasonable price.

[mananainvesting]

Bought $FEC.TO - Odd Lot Tender Opportunity.