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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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12 minutes ago, LC said:

 

Could you share the current status summary? I stopped following about a year ago, I wasn't super impressed with management. 

From my post on the PANR thread back in December:

 

"Anyone still following this? Quite a lot has transpired since year end 2022. David Hobbs (Telemachus) joined the BOD in March and is now Executive Chairman. He is on every webcast and Pantheon needed his communication skills. His active role in the business and ownership stake lend a lot of credibility in my mind. Just last week the company revealed it added 66,000 acres to the 193,000 it previously held. The acreage additions are essentially extensions to both Kodiak and Ahpun which Pantheon had proprietary seismic data on that management estimates adds 500 million net recoverable barrels to Kodiak and 300 million barrels to Ahpun. $2 million up-front lease cost. Netherland Sewell issued an independent expert report recently on Kodiak (one billion barrels of recoverable oil) and one should be issued 1H 2024 on Ahpun. The Kodiak IER will be revised to incorporate the new acreage--the one billion barrel estimate pre-dated the recent acquisition.

 

Pantheon's financing strategy entails using vendor financing and reserve-based lending a few wells in to developing Ahpun with a goal of minimizing equity dilution. If Pantheon succeeds in lining up development capital this way, hard to see this staying at $270 million market cap. My initial purchases got hit hard by the sell off late last year (premature accumulation) but I added very aggressively in the $0.15-$0.20 range (PTHRF, US $)  and made a material add at 0.25 post lease announcement last week. I like the set up here."

 

I think a lot of prospective shareholders dropped off this one around the same time and I understand that--speculative play, short attack, confusing communication around the production test results...Hobbs is now the front-facing company rep. A week ago Hobbs did an interview with Chuck Yates that was excellent. Search youtube for "David Hobbs Chuck Yates". Worth an hour if you have some interest. Key catalyst would be the announcement of a financing package for Ahpun that is attractive with minimal equity dilution, which could come at any time. If we don't get that in the first quarter, the risk that potential vendors see the data differently than the Pantheon team rises, which would be a big negative. I'll be very surprised if we don't see at least 2 billion barrels of estimated recoverable resource in official IER's by the end of the 1H 2024 as a base case.

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52 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me.

Debts are 100% fixed or hedged. Plus Fairfax won't let it go under.

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1 hour ago, value_hunter said:

Debts are 100% fixed or hedged. Plus Fairfax won't let it go under.

Sounds like you have done your research. Hedges are limited in duration so how well KW does depend on the interest rate trajectory. 

If Fairfax bails them out, they are going to charge and arm and a leg and the equity will suffer.

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Added a bit more $HUM today on today’s earnings warning. I am not pleased but it is what it is. Thats why I like to take  smaller positions first, because it gives some room to buy more on weakness.

 

FWIW, this one is in the penalty box until there is further clarity on cost trends this year.

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ADM - I think the market cap reaction is too much for what is likely a small misstatement...stock will be under pressure until investigation is done.

 

WABC - Bank with potentially the best deposit base in the country. 2x tbv is cheap for this  -> typically trades at 3x+ tbv given how consistent this bank is. Mostly a levered bond shop and not a traditional lender so doesnt have as much risk as other banks (only duration risk, which has hurt, but doesnt matter as much for them given the low cost deposits)

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1 hour ago, Luca said:

Putting my Fairfax Dividend to work: Put two buy orders in for CEIX @NYSE and JOE @NYSE

 

Nice!  I hadn't noticed it hit this morning.  I love Fairfax dividend day.  Something about getting it all at once that makes it seem like a lot.

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14 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Nice!  I hadn't noticed it hit this morning.  I love Fairfax dividend day.  Something about getting it all at once that makes it seem like a lot.

Yeah exactly, I was waiting for it yesterday, on my second broker it already arrived but at IB it was there when I woke up this morning 🙂 

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