What are you buying today?

[Uccmal]

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor.

 

However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.

 

I hear you.  For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time.  I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB.  The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up.  If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out.  I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out.  Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps).

[Orchard]

Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office?

It's not that long ago that I saw many financial companies even encouraging people to work from home. Some had instituted a "hot desk" concept where you didn't even have a dedicated desk anymore at the office. From what I've seen, and without exception, they completely changed course and brought people back in and made it much harder to work from home.

 

This statement is of course as of December 2019...times have clearly changed again since.

[alwaysdrawing]

Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value? 

 

 

[Jurgis]

Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value?

 

Didn't you just say:

 

Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO.

 

?

[alwaysdrawing]

Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value?

 

Didn't you just say:

 

Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO.

 

?

 

Yep---that's the dumbest purchase ever, but if you look up thread a few pages, you can see the previous discussion.

 

I will personally be looking at puts for companies I think are going to zero.

[Jurgis]

Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value?

 

Didn't you just say:

 

Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO.

 

?

 

Yep---that's the dumbest purchase ever, but if you look up thread a few pages, you can see the previous discussion.

 

I will personally be looking at puts for companies I think are going to zero.

 

OK. Got it. Your question was just trolling.  ::)

[writser]

Buying banks around tangible book during "extinction level events" has been an extremely profitable strategy historically. 65 million years ago the rodents made a killing buying Tyranno-Sachs and Velociraptor-Stanley when they were trading below book during the panic shortly after the meteor struck.

 

On a more serious note, if you really believe this:

 

Don't you guys see?  Companies are going to revenue comp -20, -50, -80%--how many businesses can survive that?  Airlines, theme parks, cruise ships, restaurants by the 1000s are dead companies walking.

 

Hundreds of thousands of people, and 1000s of businesses are going to close.  Unemployment is going to skyrocket.

 

The gov't doesn't have enough money to bailout the people, to say nothing of the current crazy plans to bailout hotels and cruise lines.  Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO.  The Democrats control the house--they aren't bailing out big business.

 

BUY FOOD FOR A LONG TERM QUARANTINE.  PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. Stay safe folks.  We have a long way to go from here, so strap in.

 

Then why the fuck are you still posting ten times a day on this forum? No family to help? Food to hoard? I guess you are fully prepped in your missile bunker, waiting for the apocalypse?

[Jurgis]

Buying banks around tangible book during "extinction level events" has been an extremely profitable strategy historically. 65 million years ago the rodents made a killing buying Tyranno-Sachs and Velociraptor-Stanley when they were trading below book during the panic shortly after the meteor struck.

 

No, just hodl dyno-coin.

[alwaysdrawing]

Today was a tremendous buying opportunity.  This thing is worse than flu, but not by all that much.  In many ways it's not as scary as flu because children are not dying.

 

I thought today of searching for a largish population where everyone was tested for the virus and where healthcare access was poor.  Here it is:

 

"Of the 705 passengers who tested positive for the virus on the Diamond Princess, six died -- which is a death rate of less than 1%. All of the patients who died onboard were more than 70 years old."

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312

 

Funny, ERICOPOLY, as you were a big influence to me the past few weeks.  When you made a bag back in the day spending $30k on options or whatever it was, you saw that the world was not what it seemed.

 

Italy is totally locked down.  Iran is in chaos.  China was on full lockdown and still largely is.  South Korea is doing well and testing, and will still have a brutal time.  Oil fell 25% in a day, and treasury buyers are flocking to safety.

 

The US is so clearly following the path of the worst hit places, that by the time we get around to quarantines our problems will be enormous.  Italy had 3 confirmed cases a few weeks ago!

 

Look what happened to Asian tourist locations after SARS.  This is 10x as big and still growing extremely fast.  We are just getting started.

 

I actually can't believe the market LACK of reaction the past few weeks.

 

This was three days ago

[alwaysdrawing]

Anyone else need a 15 minute breather?  Might have to take a couple of these today.

[LC]

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor.

 

However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.

 

I hear you.  For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time.  I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB.  The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up.  If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out.  I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out.  Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps).

 

Well, maybe I was totally off on this one  ;D ;D ;D

I put another nibble in for V this morning.

[Foreign Tuffett]

Open the market!

[KJP]

Rosetta Stone

FRP Holdings

 

Developers seem iffy in this environment. Might be difficult to fill/lease up buildings.

 

FRP has largely moved on from the warehouse business, which it sold at a great price.  I believe the DC and other residential projects they're funding will be quite valuable over the next few years and, most importantly, they've got a great balance sheet and apparently quite patient and competent capital allocators in charge.  The timing of my purchases and sales has historically been rather poor -- I have no talent for trading, so I can't vouch for the timing of buying (or selling) right now.

[alwaysdrawing]

FRP has largely moved on from the warehouse business, which it sold at a great price.  I believe the DC and other residential projects they're funding will be quite valuable over the next few years and, most importantly, they've got a great balance sheet and apparently quite patient and competent capital allocators in charge.  The timing of my purchases and sales has historically been rather poor -- I have no talent for trading, so I can't vouch for the timing of buying (or selling) right now.

 

KJP, you've been helpful to me in the past....don't you think there will be better opportunities than this over the next few months???

[KJP]

FRP has largely moved on from the warehouse business, which it sold at a great price.  I believe the DC and other residential projects they're funding will be quite valuable over the next few years and, most importantly, they've got a great balance sheet and apparently quite patient and competent capital allocators in charge.  The timing of my purchases and sales has historically been rather poor -- I have no talent for trading, so I can't vouch for the timing of buying (or selling) right now.

 

KJP, you've been helpful to me in the past....don't you think there will be better opportunities than this over the next few months???

 

Yes, I do.  But for various reasons unrelated to any efforts at market timing, I was around 75% cash in February.  I've been way too early to start buying, but I'm not close to all in right now, nor would I recommend anyone doing so.  I also have the luxury of not investing other people's money and not needing for decades any of the money I have invested. 

 

I'm looking to collect companies with good businesses and solid balance sheets and pick up shares in dribs and drabs, without any real effort to call the bottom, which I cannot do.  But I am going to get even more patient and discerning in what I want to own and take the opportunity to high grade my portfolio if I can. 

 

Your warnings have been spot on so far, so your approach may well be smarter than mine.  But I'm curious what you think about something like Williams (WMB).  It's hard to discern any decline in U.S. domestic natural gas usage, even during the GFC.  So, what would you pay to own it now? 

[alwaysdrawing]

But I'm curious what you think about something like Williams (WMB).  It's hard to discern any decline in U.S. domestic natural gas usage, even during the GFC.  So, what would you pay to own it now? 

 

Invert it--what do you think the upside is? 

 

I think there will be many, many opportunities for sure thing multiple bag winners on the long side before long....stuff like WMB holds no interest to me, where even in a good case of the world where things return to normal, it doubles?  At best, I'd say wait until the horizon isn't looking much darker in the immediate future.

 

Risk assets still have not sold off much compared to where I think things will go.

[Gregmal]

small adds to DD, MSG and reasonable size add the BRK. Use that cash Warren

[LC]

V and Brk.

[KJP]

 

 

I think there will be many, many opportunities for sure thing multiple bag winners on the long side before long

 

You may well be right.  I agree with you that most people mental models of what is likely going to happen are just beginning to change from minor disturbance to full Italy-like shutdown.

 

I hope you post your long ideas when they arrive.

 

EDIT:  Rather than "most people," I should have said the expectations of the people in my social circle -- mid 30's - mid 40's professionals with youngish children in a large northeastern city and its surrounding suburbs.  They are either ready to or willing to accept closing all schools and public venues for weeks. But they are also the type of people who can handle childcare on their own and don't depend on wages and tips to put food on their table and gas in the car every week.

[alwaysdrawing]

You may well be right.  I agree with you that most people's mental models of what is likely going to happen are just beginning to change from minor disturbance to full Italy-like shutdown.

 

I hope you post your long ideas when they arrive.

 

I hope so too...

 

We all have a rough road ahead, and I don't mean with respect to investing.  That said, there are still companies going to 0 that have puts available, and people are still saying this is just the flu. 

 

Going long seems very far away to me.

[Castanza]

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent your dry powder can last."

 

V, WM, UPS, CMCSA, T, BRK, SBUX, MSG, GRBK, (WFC, BAC, USB) all on the top 10 list. Starting to feel like the dog who caught the car and doesn't know what do do (buy)

 

Bonus check comes in this month :)

 

 

[wabuffo]

FWIW - bot a couple of slugs of KNOP at $10.94 and then $10.40.    Its a C-Corp oil tanker company that is basically a floating pipeline between offshore drilling rigs and port oil terminals.  At $10.40 - it yields 20%.  Reported earnings last night - everything looks fine, conference call mid-day today that I will be listening to.

 

I think the selling is overdone - but what do I know.... it could still go lower, selling feels pretty indiscriminate.

 

wabuffo

 

[deleuze68]

Bought VFV (S&P index fund) using about 5% of cash reserve. Never bought the broad index before but decided to dive in today with a starter position.

[Ross812]

So I've been buying SPX leaps and in CDs and MINT etc. for the last few years. I have been trailing the market by about 5%. So I've been 96-97% bonds 3-4% options. I started transitioning a little into equities today. Dipped my toe in with some JPM, KMI, WFC, and BRK-B. 3% total purchase. I think this has more room to go. S&P 2000 i'll be buying a lot more.

[alwaysdrawing]

Selling some calls on Vol, and buying more medium to long term puts on banks, health insurers, hotel operators, restaurants, airlines, junk bonds, market indexes.

 

Market still doesn't understand the risk of a pandemic.  Surprised the market isn't down more as this becomes more of a sure thing.

 

From 3 days ago.

 

Selling some VIX calls, adding puts on some life insurers and banks.

 

Market still doesn't understand the risk of a pandemic.